MOSCOW, November 7. /TASS/. Sovecon has upped its forecast for Russian wheat export in the agricultural year of 2021-2022 (July 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022) by 0.3 mln tons to 43.7 mln tons, the agricultural market research company said on Monday.
"Sovecon has increased the forecast of Russian wheat export in 2021-2022 by 0.3 mln tons to 43.7 mln tons due to the current rapid pace of exports," the company noted.
Experts estimate wheat exports in October to be 4.3 million tons against 3.3 million tons in October 2021 and 3.9 million tons on average. "This is the first month in the current season when exports were higher year-on-year and above average. Exports are supported by a good margin for traders and strong demand from importers," the company explained.
Analysts estimate Russia's export potential for wheat in the current agricultural year at about 50 million tons.
"However, we are in no hurry to increase the export forecast more significantly. Weak export rates at the beginning of the campaign, a strong ruble and export duty limit the total export volume in the 2022-2023 agricultural year," Sovecon experts believe.
According to the company, despite a record high crop of around 100.6 million tons, farmers are in no hurry to get rid of their wheat and currently prefer to sell sunflowers and corn. Another obstacle that is becoming more and more prevalent is a lack of rail wagons. Currently, exporters have to wait 2-3 months to receive the wagons, the company noted.
The Agriculture Ministry estimates the export of grain from Russia in the current agricultural year at 50 million tons.