MOSCOW, September 22. /TASS/. Fifty banks will quit the Russian market in the coming 18 months, including around 20-30 foreign credit organizations, Chief Executive Officer of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) Mikhail Sukhov said in an interview with Izvestia.
"About a dozen banks will leave the market by the end of the year when the supervisory practice is restored, and another 30-40 players will leave by the end of the next year. It is difficult to project such stories, but I believe 50 banks will quit the market in the coming year and a half due to various objective reasons. The number of credit organizations in the country might reach close to 300," he forecasted.
Consolidation in the state sector and foreign corporate exits from the market will become increasingly important for the decrease in the number of banks over the next few years, Sukhov added, noting though that those factors will not play a key role this year due to the inertia of corporate decisions.
Moreover, ACRA chief expects 20-30 players out of 60 credit organizations currently operating that are controlled by foreign capital, to leave the Russian market by the end of 2023.
"Most likely, they will go through the procedure of voluntary liquidation. I do not expect that foreign banks will bankrupt their subsidiaries because any default triggers unpleasant economic consequences for the parent organization," Sukhov noted.
He also said ACRA forsees the foreign exchange at around 70 rubles per dollar by the end of the year, while interest rates of retail deposits at roughly 6-6.5% per annum.