MOSCOW, March 20. /TASS/. The United States may launch an assault on Iran, as the Middle East war has disrupted air defense supplies to Kiev. Meanwhile, the conflict around Iran casts a shadow over the US Board of Peace initiative. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: US weighs assault on Iran
US President Donald Trump is considering sending additional troops to the Middle East. They will be tasked with ensuring security in the Strait of Hormuz and taking control of Kharg Island, Reuters reported. According to CBS News and The Times, the British military has joined the Pentagon in planning for the assault. Several scenarios, including a US amphibious or air assault on the Iranian island or establishing longer-term strongholds there that would guarantee safety for vessels passing through the waterway, are being considered. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth hailed the progress in the Iran operation as he emphasized that this war differs from the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.
USS Tripoli assault ship with an escort will arrive in the Persian Gulf in the next five to seven days, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. It is carrying a group of aircraft and more than 2,000 marines which, in theory, will enable the United States to carry out an unlimited number of ground raids against speedboats and shore-based anti-ship missiles. However, experts warn, this force will not be enough to seize control of the Hormuz Strait from Iran.
According to experts, any such plans risk inevitable escalation. Any attack on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure would lead to retaliatory strikes on US allies in the Gulf and their tanker fleet. Global oil prices will then spiral out of control, a scenario that Washington has traditionally sought to avoid.
"The US has already deployed the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, which took part in the operation against Venezuela, to the Middle East, according to media reports," Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to him, other units, too, are ready to fight inside Iran, and the United States is currently mulling increasing its military presence in the Persian Gulf. "If Trump decides to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, such an operation will take quite a while, between three to seven months, as American analysts and military commanders have noted. And they can give no guarantee that it will be a success," the expert warned.
"Quite often, the current US administration’s actions are dictated by an ambition to make effective but not efficient moves. We can see a show of force that sometimes lacks a clear long-term strategy or understanding of how to react to an inevitable response from Tehran," military expert Yury Lyamin told Izvestia.
Izvestia: Middle East war disrupts air defense supplies to Kiev
The war around Iran has created problems for air defense supplies to Ukraine, a European diplomat told Izvestia. Day One of the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels mostly centered on the conflict in the Middle East and support for Kiev. As the developments in the Persian Gulf have sent gas prices soaring, Europe is already mulling reengaging with Moscow for the sake of cheap resources. The situation is aggravated by Kiev’s attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline and threats to the infrastructure of the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines, actions Moscow calls irresponsible.
Ahead of the two-day summit, European Council President Antonio Costa stated that the Middle East escalation has already impacted Europe. According to him, the crisis has exposed the region’s vulnerability. The EU’s diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas echoed him as she called for finding "an exit from this war, not escalation," adding that attacks on the energy infrastructure in the Middle East are causing chaos and repercussions for the EU itself.
Vadim Kozyulin, a professor of the Academy of Military Sciences, told Izvestia that Europe has in fact found itself "on the periphery of global developments" amid the situation around Iran as it has rather been responding to US actions than forming its own policy course. According to him, there is a growing disagreement in the EU not only on the Middle East conflict but also on Ukraine.
Some in the European establishment have signaled the need to revive political channels with Moscow against the backdrop of the crisis. Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever directly pushed for normalizing relations with Russia and regaining access to cheaper energy as Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that Europe is "approaching the moment when political communication channels have to be open with Russia." The rhetoric from de Wever and Stubb shows that European elites are becoming increasingly aware that the policy of isolating Russia has failed, Pavel Feldman, a professor at the Russian Academy of Labor and Social Relations, noted.
However, a large share of European politicians is still pressing for conflict with Russia. "The Europeans are resolved to help Ukraine defend. Europe is ready to continue providing assistance. The issue of air defense supplies to Ukraine is serious. The EU's financial capabilities exceed Russia's: Russia's GDP accounts for only 10% of the EU’s GDP," a European diplomat told Izvestia.
Izvestia: Conflict around Iran overshadows US’ Board of Peace initiative
Moscow has yet to formulate its position on joining the US-led Board of Peace, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia. The initiative designed as a new venue for resolving conflicts is facing serious problems amid the war around Iran. Experts interviewed by Izvestia agree that it has actually become meaningless since the United States and Israel launched a large-scale attack on the Islamic republic.
Jamal Wakim, a professor at the Beirut-based Lebanese University, believes that the Board of Peace was originally a US attempt not only to undermine the authority of the Palestinian Authority and present its political representation as secondary, but also to create an alternative international body that could replace the UN and consolidate Washington's absolute leadership. "Those plans have failed after the United States attempted to overthrow the regime in Iran, which sparked a large-scale regional conflict.
As a final assessment of the initiative will be possible only after the confrontation ends, the impact of the actions by the United States may already weaken its posture in the region if Iran and armed groups that support it stay strong," the expert told Izvestia.
Tariq al-Bardisi, an Egyptian expert in international relations, believes that the escalation around Iran has not just undermined the idea behind the Board of Peace but actually deprived it of its content, revealing a gap between declarations and reality. According to him, the initiative initially looked attractive at the level of political rhetoric, but it proved unable to function amid a military crisis. In a situation where key players are engaged in violent confrontation, such mechanisms actually become invalid. "The Board of Peace has neither established peace nor has it acted as a real mediator: it is just a loud name at a very inopportune moment that has become a bitter irony," he told Izvestia.
"In part, we can say that the format of the Board of Peace has been paused. At this stage, the platform acts more as an additional US leverage on participants in the initiative, including as part of the campaign to draw them into the anti-Iranian coalition. However, its practical meaning in the context of the Palestinian-Israeli issue seems to have been lost," Leonid Tsukanov, an expert in Middle East studies, told Izvestia.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Attacks on Middle East oil and gas infrastructure fuel global energy crisis
Parties to the Middle East conflict have launched attacks on each other’s oil and gas infrastructure. This means that even if the hostilities end, say, within a month, it will take the sides more time to repair and bring back into operation damaged fields, pipelines, oil refineries, LNG plants, ports, and other facilities. This will be a long and expensive process that may result in a deeper and longer global energy crisis.
Much has already been damaged. At the early stage of the conflict, Iran struck the Saudi Ras Tanura oil refinery with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, and the plant halted operations. After that, drones attacked various oil and gas facilities, but without success. Everything changed on March 18 when Israel apparently left the Islamic republic without gas as it attacked Iranian facilities linked to the South Pars natural gas field. In response, Iran launched an attack on the world’s largest Ras Laffan LNG plant in Qatar which accounted for 19% of the global LNG market with 78 mln metric tons of supplies.
Also, on March 19, Iran attacked the SAMREF oil refinery in the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu with a capacity of 400,000 bpd. There is a pipeline running to this oil refinery and the Yanbu port that has enabled Saudi Arabia to reroute part of its oil exports stuck on the kingdom’s eastern coast amid the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at Implementa, a consulting company, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta in an interview that South Pars is a key element of Iran’s entire gas system. And it is the world’s largest natural gas field which accounts for some 70% of Iranian gas production and the bulk of domestic gas supplies. According to preliminary information, a 12% share of gas production at the field has been damaged, and some gas refining facilities have stopped operating.
As regards the situation around the Qatari LNG plant, it poses a global risk, Timonin continued. Given the share of Qatari LNG exports and their role in the global energy balance, even a partial loss of Qatari supplies would mean not only a spike in prices but an increase in a physical gas deficit. In addition, it will cause a chain reaction, with buyers looking for alternative supplies, mostly in the United States and other regions, competition between Europe and Asia for available volumes intensifying, and prices and volatility soaring. Unless the damage to Ras Laffan is short-term, a full-blown global gas crisis similar to that seen in 2022-2023 may be sparked, the expert warned.
Vedomosti: Iran war risks triggering global agrarian crisis
The three weeks of closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israel war against Iran since February 28 have led to a rise in global fertilizer prices, according to reports by Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI) and PBC Index seen by Vedomosti. Even as the price rise slowed down this week, it remained significant.
The key reason behind rising fertilizer prices has been the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as Middle East countries are major fertilizer suppliers, with the waterway accounting for a third of global exports, experts interviewed by Vedomosti explain. Boris Krasnozhenov, head of securities market analytics at Alfa Bank, noted that some 40% of nitrogen fertilizer supplies, or 21-22 million metric tons, pass through the Hormuz Strait. According to him, Iran controls 12% of the global nitrogen fertilizer market.
According to Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management, disruptions in commodity and fertilizer exports from the Middle East will push global fertilizer prices 25% to 45% higher in the short-term conflict scenario or cause a 90% price increase if the conflict lasts six or more months.
And the situation in fertilizer markets poses a risk to global food security, experts interviewed by Izvestia agree. "Demand for nitrogen fertilizers peaks in April and May. Unless the war ends by mid-April, the market may face a rise in spot prices above the highs seen in the spring of 2022," Alexander Belogoryev of the Institute of Energy and Finance Foundation warned.
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