MOSCOW, April 10. /TASS/. Iran and the US continue to violate the ceasefire, incapable of agreeing on topics for discussion during the talks; Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced an Easter ceasefire in the special military operation with Ukraine; and the US may withdraw from NATO to form a new military alliance in Ukraine. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Why Iran-US ceasefire fails to hold right now
US troops will remain in the Persian Gulf region to uphold the ceasefire reached by Israel and the US with Iran in the early morning hours of April 8, President Donald Trump announced. ·Meanwhile, the parties to the conflict continue to attack one another, and passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not functioning as it did before the war. Neither side has presented an official list of proposals for settling the conflict yet. Moreover, separate statements by the Trump administration suggest that Tehran and Washington have not agreed on the terms of the talks.
The US and Iran are currently unable to agree on the terms for ending the war, Middle Eastern Studies Center President Murad Sadigzade, told Vedomosti. The positions of the parties are quite opposite, and they are still disputing control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel continues to strike Iran’s ally Hezbollah, the expert noted. According to him, Israel will sooner or later resume hostilities against Iran. Both the US and Israel will leave Iran alone only after the country has been seriously weakened and pro-Western forces have come to power, Sadigzade emphasized.
The upcoming talks in Islamabad are unlikely to lead to a major diplomatic breakthrough, Nikolay Sukhov, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, stressed. In his opinion, a "tactical pause" has currently set in across the region, which could at any moment escalate into a controlled military confrontation or devolve into mutual bombings. "The parties’ demands remain maximalist and diametrically opposite. The key point of contention is control over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is currently unwilling to agree to the pre-war shipping regime on this route," the expert pointed out.
In the current situation, Israel occupies an isolated position that could become a decisive factor, Sukhov warned. The Israeli leadership will likely attempt to undermine a deal between Washington and Tehran if they consider the terms too lenient on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. "Since Lebanon is effectively excluded from the ceasefire, military operations between the Israeli army and Hezbollah could lead to the breakdown of a potential peace deal between the US and Iran. Initially, Lebanese militants entered the war in solidarity with the Islamic Republic," the expert recalled.
In its operation in Lebanon, Israel is seeking to eliminate the threat posed by Hezbollah and create conditions under which Iran will be unable to use its proxies to attack Israeli territory, Sukhov emphasized. However, fundamental contradictions between the sides remain unresolved, turning the conflict into a "war of attrition," he noted.
Izvestia: Russia once again announces Easter ceasefire with Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an Easter ceasefire in the special military operation zone from 4:00 p.m. Moscow time on April 11 until midnight on April 12 (1:00 p.m. GMT on April 11 until 9:00 p.m. on April 12). Russian servicemen have been instructed to halt combat operations on all fronts during the ceasefire, but to remain ready to repel any enemy aggression. Experts view the temporary suspension of fighting as an important humanitarian step, noting that it is nevertheless unlikely to lead to a breakthrough in negotiations.
The Ukrainian armed forces may stage provocations during this period, Russian lawmaker Vladimir Dzhabarov told Izvestia. "This isn’t the first time we’ve faced their treachery, but time will tell. Let us hope they understand that there are human values that must remain untouched and sacred for all believers," he emphasized. "This is a noble gesture by a person of faith. For Orthodox Christians everywhere, Easter is a great holiday. I hope that our opponents, most of whom are also Orthodox, will appreciate this and follow Russia's example. Let us hope they do not violate it, although there are serious doubts about their integrity ," the lawmaker noted.
There is no reason to expect that the ceasefire will be complete or that Ukraine will fully adhere to it, Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), pointed out. According to him, it is highly disadvantageous for Ukraine that Moscow is demonstrating a humanitarian and truly Christian approach to the issue. "There will surely be some provocations aimed at accusing Russia of failing to honor its own commitments," the expert stressed.
The announced ceasefire is unlikely to serve as a basis for resuming trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine, Dzhabarov added. "But we are ready for negotiations. Our president talks about this constantly. Ukraine is not ready for negotiations or a cessation of hostilities because Western Europe supports it, and its goal is to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia," the politician stated.
Oleg Lyakhovenko, a senior researcher at the Lomonosov Moscow State University, also noted that the Easter ceasefire does not signify any change in the objectives of the special military operation or a renunciation of previously set goals. "It may not be the ceasefire that revives the negotiation process, but rather very serious pressure from the West - both the EU and the US - on Kiev. Or it could entail serious pressure on the front lines, which would lead to clear changes in the military situation, up to and including major breakthroughs," Loshkarev stressed.
Media: US may withdraw from NATO and form a new military alliance in Ukraine
If the US withdraws from NATO, it would render the alliance incapable of fighting and lead to its further disintegration. Washington accounts for 60% of the organization’s military strength. But the conflict with Iran has only exacerbated existing disagreements between the US and its allies. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s partners continue to discuss the prospect of deploying bases with US or European servicemen on its territory.
Today, there are about 84,000 US troops in Europe, and bases in the region serve as a key hub for US operations. Withdrawing troops from a country or closing a base would require a great deal of time and resources, American studies expert Malek Dudakov told Izvestia. "Even if the Americans announced tomorrow that they were withdrawing their contingent from Spain, Italy, or Germany, it would take many years to logistically implement this process," he emphasized. Therefore, Trump will most likely limit himself to verbal threats and attempts to portray transatlantic allies as responsible for the American fiasco in the confrontation with Iran, Dudakov noted.
"In the event of a potential US withdrawal from the alliance, it is absolutely certain that Europe will not be able to replace them with anyone else. A new military alliance of European countries seems unlikely, especially given that they - in particular Germany and France - are actively competing with each other for the status of Europe’s leading military power," Inna Yanikeeva, a research fellow at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, said. According to her, the US still has the military and financial leverage necessary to pressure its allies. For example, Washington could cut arms supplies, halt the sharing of intelligence, and reduce its contributions to the alliance’s budget.
The meeting between NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump did not clarify the alliance’s future. Meanwhile, some observers suggest that, as a form of "punishment" for countries that did not support the US in a potential war with Iran, Trump will redeploy Pentagon troops from countries that did not help the US to those that did, including Ukraine.
Keith Kellogg, a former Trump special envoy close to the current US administration, has called for the formation of a new military alliance that includes Ukraine. These plans have not yet been officially discussed. Currently, there are no US military facilities in Ukraine. However, the threats posed by NATO will remain the same for Russia, even if the Americans withdraw from it.
"The US is already building the infrastructure for sustained and large-scale operations in Eastern Europe," retired general Yury Netkachev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. In his opinion, these facts indirectly prove that Washington has plans to establish its own military bases in Ukraine as well.
Izvestia: How low-cost drones are shaping Middle East conflict
The Middle East war has highlighted the phenomenon in which the technological gap between parties to a conflict unexpectedly becomes an economic trap for the seemingly stronger side. Iran has demonstrated that low-cost drones can be more effective than the latest generation of fighter jets in certain cases. The technological capability to block the Strait of Hormuz with these same drone systems has pushed the US toward ceasefire talks.
The US’ traditional air superiority is no longer a guarantee of success in major military campaigns, as demonstrated by the conflict in Iran, experts noted. Tehran has proven that large numbers of low-cost drones or precision ballistic missile strikes against lightly defended targets can be more effective than the latest-generation fighter jets. Iran has effectively nullified the concept of a "secure rear" by attacking targets hundreds or even thousands of kilometers from its territory, expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia.
Experts believe that this standoff has resulted in a de facto division of spheres of influence in the air. Thus, the "high skies" remain under the control of the US and its allies: their reconnaissance and strike aircraft, along with heavy drones, dominate at high altitudes. This is primarily because Iran’s air defense system has been severely weakened. However, Iran effectively controls the "low sky," Kornev noted. There, the initiative lies with low-cost, mass-produced Shahed drones. The US has been unable to completely neutralize this threat.
"As for a possible change in US tactics, they are in a difficult position. An attempt to intensify the ‘hunt’ for mobile launchers with drones would inevitably lead to more pilot casualties. Iranian air defenses actively use passive electro-optical systems and thermal imagers. They operate 'from ambush' with their radars turned off. In order to locate a target, aircraft would have to descend and enter the effective engagement range of these systems. Washington is not psychologically prepared for such losses," military expert Yury Lyamin said.
If the conflict returns to an active phase, it will escalate even further. The key question remains whether Iran can ramp up its production of weapons under pressure, and whether the US can find an economically viable response to a low-cost aerial threat, Kornev stressed. "The situation in strategically important areas, such as the Strait of Hormuz, clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of new methods of countering aggression. Drones are becoming a formidable weapon against tankers and civilian vessels, surpassing conventional anti-ship missiles in terms of cost-effectiveness," Middle East expert Kirill Semenov pointed out.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Fish prices may rise amid fuel spike linked to Middle East conflict
An escalation of the Middle East conflict could lead to higher fish prices. Since the start of the year, global marine fuel prices have doubled, with fuel accounting for up to 30% of fish production costs. Rising logistics expenses are also contributing, as transport vessels rely on more expensive fuel, increasing costs across the supply chain. However, the impact on Russia is expected to be delayed and partially mitigated.
Depending on the type, marine fuel costs in Russia have increased by 30-60% since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, Fishery Shipowners Association President Stanislav Aksyonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. He added that rising logistics costs are also a key factor, as transport vessels run on more expensive fuel, pushing up expenses throughout the supply chain. A significant increase in fuel prices inevitably feeds through to the final price of fish products for consumers. At the same time, declining profit margins amid higher costs are also putting pressure on the industry, Aksyonov noted.
Ilya Bereznyuk, managing partner at Agro and Food Communications, pointed out that the industry has historically been able to absorb fuel shocks. According to him, even when fuel costs rise by 60-80%, fish prices typically increase more moderately, by around 6%. Nevertheless, in the medium term, sustained cost pressure could significantly reduce business margins. In that case, companies may be forced either to raise prices or scale back fishing operations, the expert noted.
A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran briefly pushed global fuel oil prices down by nearly 20%. However, since late February, prices have more than doubled due to the ongoing Middle East crisis and remain near historic highs, even after a slight correction. The main driver has been rising oil prices linked to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly all oil exports from Persian Gulf countries pass through the strait, accounting for around 20% of global supply. As a result, higher raw material costs, reduced production capacity, and logistical disruptions have driven a sharp increase in marine fuel oil prices, with knock-on effects for Russia as well.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews