MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Russia may supply CSTO member states with modern weapons, the EU is preparing at least three new sanctions packages against Russia in 2026, and Donald Trump intends to bar South Africa from the 2026 G20 summit amid escalating political tensions. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Russia ready to equip CSTO countries with its proven weapons systems
Speaking at the CSTO summit in Bishkek on November 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed launching a large-scale program to equip the Collective Forces of the CSTO with Russian weaponry. Experts told Izvestia that such an initiative is particularly relevant for several member states, including Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Participants in the summit adopted a final declaration outlining unified positions on key issues of the international and regional agenda. Among the central topics of the meeting were countering extremism, terrorism, and external threats.
During his address, Vladimir Putin proposed initiating a broad program to equip the CSTO Collective Forces with Russian weapons systems that have "proven their effectiveness in the course of real combat operations."
"Right now, member states of the organization have vastly different and sometimes outdated armaments, in part inherited from the Soviet period. Of course, Kazakhstan and Belarus are the more actively modernized states, but Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan, as well as Armenia to some extent, clearly experience shortages of modern communications systems, reconnaissance capabilities, counterterrorism equipment, and unmanned aerial vehicles," research fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Darya Saprynskaya told Izvestia.
Moreover, Russian equipment has already demonstrated its reliability in active combat conditions.
"The implementation of such a program would significantly enhance the overall combat readiness of national contingents and the CSTO Collective Forces," Alexander Korolev, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics told Izvestia.
The broader foreign policy environment remains one of the principal risks. CSTO member states expressed concern about the advance of military infrastructure belonging to other military alliances toward the organization’s borders — a clear reference to NATO’s activities. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko even likened the situation on the western frontiers to a "besieged fortress."
Given the geopolitical climate, Vladimir Putin proposed that CSTO member states hold an international expert forum in 2026 dedicated to the Eurasian security architecture.
Izvestia: EU poised to introduce at least three new sanctions packages against Russia in 2026
Despite efforts to coordinate Donald Trump’s peace plan, the EU continues to work on new anti-Russian sanctions, the European Commission told Izvestia. The European Parliament further clarified that at least three new packages could be adopted in 2026, should efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine fail. Experts, however, believe the EU’s willingness to tighten restrictions is driven not by the crisis in Ukraine, but by a desire to curb Russia as a competitor.
"Undoubtedly, the EU still intends to work on further sanctions until President Putin agrees to sit at the negotiating table," the European Commission said in a statement to Izvestia.
The probability that new anti-Russian restrictions will be introduced next year is quite high, the European Parliament noted.
"The exact number of sanctions packages is difficult to predict, as it depends on Russia’s behavior and on the broader international security climate. However, if the conflict remains at its current level or intensifies, the adoption of several additional packages is entirely possible," Tomas Zdechovsky, a Member of the European Parliament from the European People’s Party, told Izvestia.
According to him, the EU could approve at least three new sanctions packages in 2026.
The European Union is interested in further tightening sanctions because it views Russia not only as a political adversary, but also as an economic competitor, senior research fellow at the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations Egor Sergeev told the newspaper.
"First, although the sanctions framework is formally tied to the Ukrainian conflict, it reflects the EU’s broader approach to competing with Russia. It is evident that even without the conflict, tensions in relations would have continued to grow. Today, sanctions function not only as a political tool, but also as a new form of competitive struggle," he told Izvestia.
Even after the conflict ends, the fundamental contradictions between Russia and the EU will not disappear, the analyst added. Brussels views sanctions as effectively its only direct instrument for confronting Russia, since the EU cannot compete with Moscow in terms of military power.
Vedomosti: Inside Trump’s push to exclude South Africa from G20
South Africa will not receive an invitation to the 2026 G20 summit planned in the United States, President Donald Trump wrote on social network Truth Social. He also announced his intention to immediately suspend "all tranches and subsidies" Washington provides to Johannesburg. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti argue that Trump’s pressure campaign is driven by domestic political calculations and strategic efforts to weaken BRICS, while South Africa - valuing its role as a regional leader and its ties with Russia and China - refuses to accept conditions that would make it reliant on Washington.
One of the American president’s main grievances is what he describes as the oppressed status of South Africa’s white population. Another source of dissatisfaction was Pretoria’s refusal to hand over the G20 presidency to a "senior representative of the US Embassy" in the country. Having returned to the White House in January 2025, Trump repeatedly denounced South Africa, including during his meeting with Ramaphosa in late May.
The episode involving South Africa carries both foreign-and domestic-policy significance for Trump, chief research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Vasilyev told Vedomosti. The domestic dimension, he noted, relates to Trump’s desire to consolidate his white voter base. Moreover, Trump’s focus on South Africa reflects the renewed influence of billionaire and former adviser Elon Musk (who was born in South Africa), who is similarly displeased with the situation of the white minority. In terms of foreign policy, beyond efforts to force Johannesburg to make concessions in trade negotiations, Trump is seeking to pressure South Africa into loosening its ties with BRICS, as he views the group as a long-term rival to the United States in the Global South.
Trump aims to create conditions of dependence and subordination — an approach South Africa finds unacceptable, research fellow with the Africa in the Focus of Russian Interests program at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies Lora Chkonia told the newspaper. But Johannesburg, she emphasized, will not agree to terms that would require abandoning its partnerships with Russia and China or its participation in BRICS. South Africa remains a regional leader: it advocates for the interests of other African states, maintains privileged access to them, and can influence their decision-making processes.
Vedomosti: Analysts expect dollar to weaken through mid-2026 as Fed shifts policy
The US dollar will continue to weaken against major world currencies over the next six months, according to most experts surveyed by Vedomosti. Analysts believe this trend will be driven by the likely continuation of Federal Reserve rate cuts prompted by slowing US economic growth, pressure on the regulator from the White House, and a forecasted loosening of liquidity policy.
Experts at JPMorgan and Bloomberg also pointed to the potential weakening of the dollar. JPMorgan forecasts a 3% decline in the DXY dollar index by mid-2026. The index reflects the value of the US dollar relative to six global currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc.
The experts predicting a weaker dollar include: chief analyst at Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev, Director of financial markets and macroeconomic analysis at Alfa Capital Vladimir Bragin, analyst at BCS World of Investments Kirill Kononov, stock market expert at Garda Capital Kirill Seleznev, associate professor in the Department of World Economy at the HSE Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs Ksenia Bondarenko, and economist Pavel Ryabov.
According to Vasiliev, rising US public debt and forthcoming changes in the Federal Reserve’s liquidity policy will also contribute to the dollar’s decline. "On December 1, the Fed is ending its quantitative tightening (QT) program — the withdrawal of dollar liquidity. Next year, the Fed may resume quantitative easing (QE), which injects dollar liquidity. A dollar expansion in the global financial system, all else being equal, also leads to a weaker dollar," the expert said.
The trajectory of the Russian economy will be the key factor for the ruble/dollar pair, Bragin believes. If inflation in Russia continues to decline, the ruble may remain near current levels. For November 28, the Central Bank set the official rate at 78.25 rubles per dollar. Vasiliev expects the average exchange rate to be 80 rubles per dollar in Q1 2026 and 82 rubles per dollar in Q2 2026.
"The Russian currency has strengthened anomalously despite a wave of new sanctions and poorly contained inflation. In 2026, we may see the ruble fall by 10-15% to around 90 rubles per dollar," Seleznev noted.
At the same time, a weaker dollar will give US exporters certain advantages over their Japanese, South Korean, and European counterparts, Vasiliev emphasized. According to him, the dollar’s 11.5% depreciation against the euro since the beginning of this year has already undermined the competitiveness of European manufacturers.
Kommersant: South Korea resumes purchases of Russian coal
Russian exporters of thermal coal have resumed sales to the South Korean market, one of the key destinations in Asia. In 2025, supplies to the country may increase by 13-18%. At the same time, analysts interviewed by Kommersant expect growth to slow or even see exports decline in 2026 unless there is a sharp rise in demand or disruptions among competing suppliers.
South Korea’s interest in Russian thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal/kg is rebounding. According to NEFT Research, at least one deal has already been recorded for a Panamax shipment (deadweight 60,000-80,000 tons) scheduled for January 2026 at a price of $100 per ton on CIF terms. Previously, South Korea had shifted to alternative suppliers, particularly from Colombia.
In July, Russia emerged as the leading supplier of thermal coal to South Korea, shipping 2.7 mln tons — the highest monthly figure since 2022. In August, exports increased by 54.6% to 3.76 mln tons, allowing Russia to maintain first place ahead of Indonesia (3.74 mln tons) and Australia (2.7 mln tons).
Nikanor Khalin, senior analyst at Ailer, citing BigMint data, noted that in the first ten months of 2025, Russian exports of thermal coal, including anthracite, to South Korea grew by 15% year-on-year to 18.5 mln tons. However, shipment volumes in October almost returned to 2023-2024 levels. By the end of 2025, exports will rise by 13-18% year-on-year, he told Kommersant.
According to Maxim Shaposhnikov, managing partner at the Industrial Code fund, Russian coal supplies to the South Korean market will total around 22 mln tons in 2025, including 18-19 mln tons of thermal coal.
Alexander Kotov, consulting partner at NEFT Research, believes Russia will maintain a significant share of the South Korean market and that shipments may grow moderately, especially during periods of peak demand. "If competitors remain unstable or if Indonesia continues reducing production as previously announced, exports could increase by another 5-10% relative to 2025," he said.
Prices, Kotov added, are likely to remain stable with modest upside potential, provided the market and logistics remain uninterrupted.
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