MOSCOW, March 25. /TASS/. Russia and the US have concluded talks in Saudi Arabia, Hamas is discussing a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and NATO begins military drills near the coast of Spain. These stories topped the headlines in Tuesday’s newspapers across Russia.
Media: Outcome of Moscow-Washington talks in Riyadh
Russia and Ukraine may launch a direct dialogue on settling the conflict if their positions on certain issues indeed become closer, even though this will not be easy, experts believe. Earlier, another round of talks between representatives from Russia and the US concluded in Riyadh. The results of the 12-hour-long meeting will be announced on March 25. The Russian delegation to Saudi Arabia was led by head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin and adviser to the director of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) Sergey Beseda.
The central issue of the meeting was the revival of the Black Sea initiative. Earlier, the Americans held talks with the Ukrainian side which lasted merely one hour. And so far, the Kiev regime continues to actively breach the ban on strikes on Russian energy facilities.
The US has approached this round of talks with the realization that the idea of an immediate complete ceasefire along the current line of military engagement is not realistic, said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
"To begin with, it is necessary to come up with a roadmap and begin paving the path to peace by halting strikes on energy infrastructure and ensuring maritime security in the Black Sea. The latter may potentially lead the sides to revive the 'grain deal.' However, there is no certainty that it will work," the expert told Izvestia.
The main hurdle for the current Russia-US talks is the differing approach to presenting their stance, Andrey Kortunov, an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club told Vedomosti. If the Russian side adheres to the classic negotiating position, the US, represented by Trump, is being more chaotic. According to Kortunov, there are three directions where progress is possible given the current situation. The first one is diplomatic interaction, the second is sanctions policy, and the third one is regional cooperation, for instance, in the Arctic.
That said, Kortunov has cautioned about the risks related to Trump’s personal view of the essence of the Russia-US talks. He emphasized that all proposals on bilateral relations are being used by the US president in order to reach a deal on Ukraine, while Russia considers it important to establish dialogue to remove the conflict’s root causes. "The interests are misaligned. Trump seeks media coverage of his negotiating abilities. And if he thinks that there is no progress on the Ukrainian front, he will unload it on Europe and preoccupy himself with the Middle Eastern crisis and something else which he views as more promising in terms of scale," Kortunov explained.
Izvestia: Hamas, mediators negotiate ceasefire in Gaza
The Gaza-based Palestinian group Hamas is discussing a ceasefire with mediators and is ready to fulfill the provisions of the agreement, a source within the movement told Izvestia. On March 18, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) resumed strikes on the Gaza Strip. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the attacks were resumed due to Hamas’ rejection of the US plan to extend the ceasefire and release hostages. The plan proposed extending the ceasefire until April 19 and releasing five live hostages in exchange for a large number of Palestinian prisoners. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel is planning to launch a major ground offensive in Gaza.
"In the near future, the pace of the operation will only increase and the Israelis switching to large-scale ground actions is rather a matter of time. Especially since Washington is not reacting in any way to the gradual intensification of the escalation by the Israelis," Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.
"Given that the previous ceasefire was largely concluded under the US’ pressure, it has greatly upset the ultra-right wing. This has even provoked resignations by a number of ministers led by Ben-Gvir (who returned to the cabinet just recently, after combat resumed.) So it is not surprising that official Tel Aviv discarded the inconvenient agreement at the first opportunity," Tsukanov said.
All of this is driving the Middle Eastern diplomatic agenda into a stalemate. On the one hand, Hamas is displaying readiness to participate in the negotiation process and agree to concessions, while demanding guarantees of Israel halting its military operation and lifting the blockade. On the other hand, Israel sticks to its conditions and completely rejects any discussion of the potential troop withdrawal or the conflict’s resolution.
Izvestia: Purpose of NATO maritime drills near Spanish coast
NATO launched the Dynamic Mariner/FLOTEX 25 naval exercise in Spain’s Gulf of Cadiz and off the coast of Andalusia on March 24. It will involve about 4,000 troops, 30 ships, two submarines, paratroopers, and aviation from the alliance’s nine countries. The drills will practice assault operations, anti-submarine warfare, and cyber defense. According to experts, the current exercise fits in with the general logic of militarizing Europe driven by Western politicians.
All of this is related to Europe’s land, sea, and air paranoia on creating a joint group directed against Russia, military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia.
"A mixed group got together for these drills, for instance, Croatia, which seems to be present just for show. And Turkey has its own interests - soon, it is planning to position itself as the leading maritime power in the Mediterranean. While Germany is a flagship of sorts because it has been entrusted with leading operations against us in the Baltic Sea - for example, there, it is holding drills and planning to patrol the gulfs of Finland and Bothnia. All of these are indicators of NATO’s military ‘schizophrenia’ in Europe," the expert noted.
According to Admiral (Ret.) Sergey Avakyants, ex-commander of Russia’s Pacific Fleet, this event must not be overhyped.
"Over decades, NATO has been holding scheduled drills and even more extensive than these. Thus, some of them were practicing nuclear strikes on our country during the escalation," he reiterated. "The militarization of Europe is underway. Its first component is the technical one. This is about attempts to restore their military and industrial complex, boost the production of hardware independently from the US. The second component is more important, which involves changing the population’s perception, getting them ready for a war. If previously this was something unthinkable, now they are working on the notion of ‘war’ entering the Europeans’ everyday vocabulary. And this is a much more complex task. For instance, because there is significant opposition within these countries. And currently, there is no single unified Europe with a common idea and ideology. As early as at this stage of militarizing Europe, they already have differences of opinion, contradictions, and conflicts of interest surfacing. So it is not worth our serious attention, let them practice whatever they want," the military expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Israel does not rule out Erdogan using Syrian issue to quench domestic strife
Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet is worried that Turkey might intentionally exacerbate its conflict with Israel over Syria. According to the Israeli authorities, this may be triggered by the domestic situation in Turkey, intensified by the arrest of prominent opposition figure Ekrem Imamoglu. Israeli special services do not rule out that at some point, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may want to divert the population’s attention from large-scale crackdowns and switch it to an external enemy, represented by the Netanyahu government since the onset of the Gaza conflict.
Eastern studies scholar Ruslan Suleymanov told the newspaper that the potential escalation of Turkey’s foreign policy appears to be the last resort. According to him, the situation around Imamoglu at this point is exclusively an "internal issue and a domestic political conflict." "I think that the Turkish authorities are banking on marginalizing the protest, on blaming the leaders of the Turkish opposition for sowing discord and destabilizing the situation," the expert explained.
"However, if this approach does not work out, if control over Turkish streets is not restored, then the introduction of an emergency decree is rather possible," he added.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: What awaits ruble rate in April?
Currently, the ruble rate has been strengthened as much as it could have. A new noticeable rise in the Russian currency against the dollar, euro, or yuan may be ensured only by positive or even highly favorable geopolitical developments. In the coming month, the ruble will most likely remain at the current rate of about 85 per the US dollar, but some fluctuations cannot be ruled out, according to analysts.
"The range may be broad, from 75 to 95 rubles per the US dollar. We think that the ruble is close to the peak of its appreciation in the current cycle," said Tsifra Broker leading analyst Natalia Pyryeva.
"While the geopolitical factor prevails in the internal currency market, it makes no sense to speak of any fundamental levels of ruble rates. With the most favorable outcome of the geopolitical agenda, the ruble may settle at around 60-65 per dollar. With an unfavorable outcome, it may weaken to 115-125 per dollar," Vladimir Yevstifeyev, chief analyst at Zenit Bank, pointed out.
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