MOSCOW, August 19. /TASS/. Moscow denies holding talks with Kiev in Qatar, Putin arrives on state visit to Azerbaijan; and Israel, Hamas inching closer to truce deal in Gaza. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Russia denies negotiating with Ukraine in Qatar
Potential indirect talks between Moscow and Kiev on an agreement to halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides were derailed by Ukraine’s offensive in Russia’s Kursk Region, The Washington Post reported on August 17. According to the newspaper, the two warring countries were set to send delegations to Doha, with Qatar serving as mediator and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova shot down the claims about negotiations, saying "there was nothing to talk about anyway." According to her, "there have been no direct or indirect talks on the safety of critical civilian infrastructure between Russia and the Kiev regime." She added that the only threat to such facilities, including nuclear power plants, comes from Ukraine, backed by its Western partners.
Andrey Kortunov, research director at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Vedomosti that Russia and Ukraine have been discussing de-escalation exclusively on the expert level, with a proposal to reduce shelling of critical energy facilities being floated, but ultimately shut down, he said. The problem is that it isn't clear who would guarantee the implementation of such commitments, said Kortunov. He suggested that, should such an agreement be reached, the enemy could deploy heavy weapons to these facilities, using their civilian nature as a cover.
In their conflict, Russia and Ukraine actually have similar strategies in the energy domain, seeking to do each other as much damage as possible, IMEMO RAS senior researcher Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky believes. "For Ukraine has mostly targeted our fuel industry," the expert said, while Russia, in turn, is seeking to "unplug" Ukraine from its power grid. Meanwhile, Ukraine faced quite a deplorable situation in the energy sphere even before the special military operation, with 90% of its non-nuclear power plants being completely out of commission back in late 2021, the expert explained.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Putin arrives on state visit to Azerbaijan
On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived on a state visit to Azerbaijan in what was his third in-person meeting with Azerbaijanian counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, this year. The Russian leader last visited Baku in September 2018. Since then, much has changed in the South Caucasus, but Moscow-Baku relations seem to have only gotten stronger.
The two leaders last met at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana in July. Also, Aliyev visited Moscow in April, soon after Russia started withdrawing its peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh. He also attended festivities celebrating the 50th anniversary of the launch of the construction of the Baikal-Amur Railway (BAM), a Soviet-era rail link his father, Heydar Aliyev, helped build. At their talks, the two leaders discussed developing trade and cooperation in the transport sphere as well as security in the region, including resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijanian political analyst Ilgar Velizade believes that relations between Moscow and Baku are entering a golden age. "The two sides may sign some agreements that will strengthen their partnership, with the North-South [international transport corridor] project being of particular importance here," he said. According to Velizade, bilateral economic relations have been developing rapidly. While bilateral trade amounted to around $4.3 bln, there is a lot of room for growth.
However, head of the Caucasus sector of IMEMO RAS Vadim Mukhanov doesn’t think the time is right to elevate Azerbaijan to a strategic ally. Firstly, no mechanism for such a level of cooperation is outlined in bilateral documents, including their landmark 2022 agreement, and secondly, Azerbaijan's key ally Turkey isn't on the best terms with Russia, complicating things further, he argues. "At this point, Moscow and Baku can only talk about good neighborly relations. This [status] may change in the future after the two parties sign more agreements," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Vedomosti: Israel, Hamas on verge of ceasefire deal in Gaza
The Palestinian radical group Hamas and Israel have signaled that they are close to their second truce since the war in the Gaza Strip broke out in October 2023. Washington has been pushing hard for a ceasefire agreement in the past few months.
On August 18, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken landed in Israel. The US Department of State announced that with the visit, Blinken’s aim was to "continue intensive diplomatic efforts to conclude the agreement for a ceasefire and release of hostages and detainees through the bridging proposal presented today by the United States, with support from Egypt and Qatar."
Hamas and the Israelis held another round of indirect talks in Qatari capital Doha on August 15. Two days later, Dmitry Gendelman, advisor to the office of the Israeli prime minister, said that the Israeli negotiating team was "cautiously optimistic" about "a renewed US proposal" that it said "includes components that are suitable for Israel." Prior to Gendelman’s statement, Biden made an optimistic announcement too, on the morning of August 17, as he said that senior officials would meet in Cairo before the end of the next week. Axios said talks may be held in Cairo on August 21.
These latest high hopes from the US are nothing new, while real agreements have been hard to come by, said Lyudmila Samarskaya, researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. The US pressure on Tel Aviv may play a role, but there is no iron-clad guarantee that it will lead to something concrete, she told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Meanwhile, Hamas has indirectly confirmed progress toward a truce while dismissing optimism that an agreement may be reached soon as illusory. "We are not facing a true agreement or negotiation, but rather the imposition of American dictates," Hamas Spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said.
Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) expert Kirill Semyonov believes that Hamas is ready to agree on a long-term ceasefire. "This would cancel an Iranian [retaliatory] strike, too, as Tehran is seeking to put an end to the Gaza war and safeguard Hamas. A long-term truce rather than an interim step toward exchanging hostages would suit both Iran and the group," Semyonov concluded.
Izvestia: Chinese companies look to export goods to Russia via third countries
Since mid-July, Chinese producers have been asking to export their goods, mostly items on the stop list, including electronic devices, to Russia via third countries amid continued Western pressure, businessmen told Izvestia.
Those suppliers who cannot accept payments from Russian companies via Chinese lenders or branches of a Russian bank in China are likely to try to make shipments through third countries, the director general of importer Atvira and an expert in foreign trade, Yekaterina Kizevich, told Izvestia. They see receiving payments via third countries as their only option, not wanting to draw any attention for having ties to Russia.
Meanwhile, delivery via Iran or some other third country is possible, and some logistics companies have already embraced new routes, Kizevich argues. However, with such routes being not well-established yet, building them will take time so as no obstacles to shipments may arise, she said.
Businesses are indeed looking for new opportunities now, Alexey Razumovsky from Impaya Rus agrees. However, this adds extra costs, as agent fees are incurred, pushing consumer prices higher. And if costs increase, import volumes may drop, he warns.
However, he is confident that companies will succeed in finding new export routes from China as the latest restrictions were only imposed in late July, meaning they haven't had time to navigate the situation yet, Razumovsky says. According to him, companies should look to friendly countries for help.
Kommersant: Gold prices rising on Fed policy, central banks, Middle East
Spot prices for gold have risen past $2,500 per Troy ounce to a new record, with the precious metal seeing a more than 5% increase over the past week and a half.
Experts cite several reasons for this. Portfolio manager at Astero Falcon Alyona Nikolayeva sees "a hint that markets are almost confident the Federal Reserve will start easing its monetary policy" behind gold prices reaching another record high. Global investors pencil in faster Fed accommodation than was expected earlier.
Besides, central banks, mostly in developing economies, continue to keep up demand and, therefore, prices. Investment strategist at Arikapital Sergey Suverov said that regulators, including the People’s Bank of China, "have been actively buying gold for diversification purposes as they reduce their Treasury holdings."
The latest escalation in the Middle East as Israel awaits Iranian retaliation, too, has pushed gold prices higher.
Against this backdrop, experts say gold may rise further, given stock market volatility and uncertainty over the future of the global economy, Nikolayeva said. Senior analyst at SberCIB Investment Research Anna Pilgunova argues that high gold market volatility may lead to a price correction as she views the current level of $2,400 per Troy ounce as well-balanced. At that, her company forecasts that gold prices "will continue heading north in the latter half of the year." And Suvorov sees asset managers expecting gold to rise to $2,700 per ounce by the end of the year as they "increase their positions in the precious metals."
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