MOSCOW, May 28. /TASS/. Armenia’s costs to replace Russian gas if it joins the EU would amount to up to $400 million a year, and the country’s economy is heavily dependent on gas imports, Alexey Belogoryev, research director at the Institute of Energy and Finance, told TASS.
According to him, the problem for Armenia is not only the price of gas but also how to substitute supplies from Russia. Possible options include direct supplies from Iran, Azerbaijan, or Turkey, and transit of Azerbaijani gas through Georgia, but all of these are expensive, and transporting gas from Azerbaijan or Turkey carries significant political risks for Armenia itself.
"The only politically acceptable replacement is Iran, especially since it has been supplying gas to Armenia for a long time, since 2009, as part of a barter exchange for electricity. Even if Iran were to find some extra gas (2.2-2.5 billion cubic meters per year), it would take at least three years and several hundred million dollars to resolve the bottlenecks in the gas transportation infrastructure. A realistic price range for such gas would be $280-350 per 1,000 cubic meters, meaning it would be up to twice as expensive as current Russian supplies. This means Armenia’s additional gas import costs would amount to $230-400 million per year, depending on the contract formula and market conditions," the expert said.
Belogoryev noted that Armenia’s economy is one of the most gas-intensive in the world. Around 96% of households in the country have gas service, and for them, gas is often the only energy source for heating, cooking, and hot water.
"However, the country doesn’t produce any gas at all, being entirely dependent on imports. Therefore, Armenia cannot afford interruptions in gas supplies, and it is highly desirable to curb price increases. Any Armenian government is forced to act on this objective necessity," he added.
For Armenia, it would be desirable for nothing to change in the gas supply sector over the next five to ten years, since the price of $177.50 is essentially the cost of supply, teetering on the brink of profitability, and no one will offer the country a better price, the expert noted.
"The profitability of these exports for Gazprom is achieved through further gas supplies to retail consumers thanks to Gazprom Armenia’s monopoly position in Armenia’s domestic market. Therefore, the key issue in gas relations between Russia and Armenia is not the price of supplies, but the fate of Gazprom Armenia," he concluded.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reported that the Armenian Foreign Ministry had received a notification from Russia regarding the potential termination of the agreement on the supply of gas, oil products, and diamonds should Yerevan join the European Union.
Under the 2013 agreement signed between Armenia and Russia, Moscow supplies Yerevan with gas, petroleum products, and rough diamonds duty-free and on preferential terms for domestic consumption.
In 2022, Russia supplied Armenia with approximately 2.6 billion cubic meters of gas. In 2023 and 2024 it delivered 2.4 bcm a year, and in 2025 gas supplies totaled 2.3 bcm.
Gazprom Armenia CJSC (100% owned by Gazprom) is the monopoly seller of natural gas on the republic’s domestic market. Fuel is delivered to Armenia via Georgia.
On Armenia’s possible accession to the EU
On March 26, 2025, the Armenian Parliament passed a law in its second and final reading to initiate the country’s accession process to the European Union. Pashinyan noted that this would not automatically trigger Yerevan’s entry into the bloc, as the issue requires a referendum. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, Moscow views these actions as the beginning of the republic’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union. He added that joining the EU is incompatible with the country’s membership in the EAEU.