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National Bank of Ukraine cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points

According to the regulator, Ukraine's real GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 1.8%

MOSCOW, January 29. /TASS/. The National Bank of Ukraine has once again lowered its expectations for economic growth in 2026 due to the consequences of damage to the country’s energy infrastructure.

"The deterioration in the energy sector will continue to constrain business activity for a prolonged period. Taking this into account, real GDP in 2026 is expected to grow moderately — by 1.8%," the regulator said in a statement on its website.

The regulator also downgraded its estimate for GDP growth last year by 0.1 percentage points. Previously, economic growth was expected at 1.9%, but the regulator now puts it at 1.8%. The reasons cited were "disruptions to logistics" and "a larger-than-expected electricity shortage in recent months."

In October last year, the National Bank of Ukraine had already revised down its outlook for economic growth in 2026. The initial forecast stood at 2.3%, but was later cut to 2.0%. At the same time, the regulator reduced its forecast for GDP growth in 2025 from 2.1% to 1.9%, citing an energy deficit caused by damage to infrastructure and gas production facilities, as well as a persistent labor shortage.