MOSCOW, December 6. /TASS/. The cycle of the Central Bank key rate’s lowering will start no earlier than the second half of 2025, with strict monetary policy expected to be an enormous challenge for Russia’s business and banking sector, Sberbank Chief Executive Officer Herman Gref said at Investor Day.
"The Russian economy has repeatedly demonstrated a unique ability to adjust in recent years. Our forecast for 2025 GDP growth is 1.3%. Inflation will decline, keeping at 6-7% though. We do not expect the beginning of the cycle of the key rate’s lowering earlier than the second half of 2025," he said.
This fall the Bank of Russia sharply raised the key rate by 2 percentage points to a record level of 21% per annum. It did not rule out the possibility of its further increase at the next meeting either, saying that further tightening of monetary policy was required to ensure the return of inflation to the target and reduce inflation expectations. The regulator also downgraded its inflation outlook for 2024 to 8-8.5% from 6.5-7%.