MOSCOW, April 7. /TASS/. Iran has rejected the US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and a transition to peace talks, demanding a complete and immediate end to the conflict; the EU is preparing a plan to suspend Hungary’s voting rights in the EU Council if current Prime Minister Viktor Orban wins the country’s parliamentary elections on April 12; and the administration of US President Donald Trump plans to request $1.5 trillion in defense spending from Congress for fiscal year 2027. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Iran rejects US ultimatum, demands settlement once and for all
Iran has rejected the US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and a transition to peace talks, demanding a complete and immediate end to the conflict. The deadline for US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Tehran is April 8, and Washington is further escalating its rhetoric. The Strait of Hormuz is an additional source of tension as Iran continues to refuse to open it. Meanwhile, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are mediating consultations on a potential 45-day ceasefire, which is the last chance to prevent a large-scale escalation involving strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure and energy facilities in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalloul believes that Tehran will not make concessions in response to Trump’s ultimatum, as Iran sees no incentive for compromise. According to him, the country’s leadership, including the Supreme Leader and security agencies, considers the nuclear program and support for regional allies to be the foundation of state strategy, not subjects for negotiation. "From a pragmatic standpoint, the country has already adapted to the pressure of sanctions, gaining experience in circumventing restrictions and strengthening its position in the defense sector," the expert told Izvestia.
In turn, Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of Israel’s Channel 9 website, pointed out that the fact the ultimatum was extended indicates that behind-the-scenes negotiations between the parties are ongoing, possibly with third-country mediation. In his opinion, the new extension is effectively being used to fully exhaust the diplomatic option, while such a limited timeframe reflects the US administration’s skepticism about reaching an agreement. "If no agreement is reached by the deadline, there could be a shift toward large-scale US strikes on Iranian energy facilities, as well as limited ground operations, including potential amphibious landings," the expert emphasized.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor-in-chief of the Covert Action magazine, noted that the further development of the conflict could prove decisive primarily due to the US domestic political situation. In his opinion, American society is already critical of the current military campaign, and potential casualties among servicemen could sharply intensify public discontent and pressure on the Trump administration to end the conflict. Kuzmarov emphasized that, amid this, the US leader may seek de-escalation in the near future; otherwise, he will face political consequences, including the loss of power.
Izvestia: EU intends to strip Hungary of its voting rights if Orban wins national election
The EU is preparing a plan to suspend Hungary’s voting rights in the EU Council if current Prime Minister Viktor Orban wins the country’s parliamentary elections on April 12. In that case, the EU would be able to approve a 90-billion-euro loan to Kiev, which Budapest is currently blocking. However, experts consider the scenario of stripping Hungary of its voting rights unlikely due to the complex procedure and the risk of discontent among other countries. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance will arrive in Budapest on April 7 to support Orban in the final stage of the election campaign.
Brussels plans to strip Hungary of its voting rights in the EU Council if Viktor Orban’s party wins the election, European Parliament member Pekka Toveri told Izvestia. "A plan is currently being drawn up in case Orban secures the election victory. Most likely, Hungary’s voting rights will be revoked so that a loan can be approved. I don’t have an exact timeline, but this will most likely happen very soon after the election," he said.
The suspension of an EU member state’s voting rights is stipulated in Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union. Such an initiative must be proposed by one-third of the EU member states, a majority of European Parliament members (480), or the European Commission. However, although Article 7 applies to the EU Council, a decision as significant as the suspension of a country’s voting rights must be approved by the heads of state and government of the association, Yegor Sergeyev, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), told Izvestia. "The final decision by the European Council, which leads directly to the imposition of sanctions and the suspension of voting rights, must be adopted unanimously, which is extremely unlikely," the expert emphasized.
Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the EU’s decision to strip Hungary of its voting rights would be met with resistance, as it would set a precedent for punishing the association’s most "uncooperative" members. "It is more likely that the EU will develop an additional mechanism for financing Kiev through member states or, for example, resume discussions on the prospects of using Russian assets located in the EU," the expert noted.
The EU has recently been discussing policies to limit the rights of member states on various issues with increasing frequency. Hungary is merely the most striking example. If Brussels prevails, it will be able to accelerate the process of eliminating the veto power of member states, Moscow Pedagogical State University’s History and Politics Institute Deputy Director Vladimir Shapovalov stressed.
Vedomosti: Reasons behind US plans to increase military spending by nearly 50% to $1.5 trillion
The administration of US President Donald Trump plans to request $1.5 trillion in defense spending from Congress for fiscal year 2027 (beginning October 1, 2026), according to the draft presidential budget published on the White House website. This is 44% more than the $1 trillion approved for fiscal year 2026. The funds will be allocated to strengthening US capabilities in space, constructing the Golden Dome missile defense system, developing missile technologies, expanding the Navy, and reinforcing the US’ leadership in the field of drones.
In contrast, all civilian agencies and social programs will collectively lose 10% (up to $73 billion) of their budgets. This is one of the signs of the difficulties the administration will face in approving the new defense budget. To pass the $1.1 trillion base request in the Senate, 60 votes are needed, but the Republican majority of 53 seats does not have sufficient numbers.
The US has no trouble spending such budgets, in part because a significant portion of them consists of military pay, Igor Shkrobtak, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. While individual provisions of the bill may provoke discontent among the administration’s opponents in Congress, there is overall agreement between Republican and Democratic lawmakers regarding the need to strengthen the country’s military capabilities.
In turn, Vladimir Pavlov, a research fellow at the Institute of International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) stressed that the record increase in the US defense budget for 2027 is the result of a sustained trend observed over the past decades, and the current operation in the Middle East was not a decisive factor in the expansion of funding. "The budget deficit observed under recent US presidents is exacerbated by the high cost of the latest types of weaponry, such as artificial intelligence tools and drones," he emphasized. According to the expert, despite the absence of aid to Ukraine as a separate line item, support will continue through other means, such as providing intelligence and selling weapons funded by Europeans. Pavlov pointed out that the Democrats, who have announced their intention to amend the document, will primarily advocate for maintaining aid to US allies, such as NATO and Taiwan.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: US may extend suspension of sanctions on Russian oil
The 30-day temporary exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil loaded onto tankers before March 12 will expire at midnight on April 11. The situation on the global oil market has only worsened over the past month, so it is highly likely that the US will extend the exemptions for another 30 days, thus pushing back the loading deadline by the same amount of time. These exemptions were initially granted to halt the rise in global oil prices caused by the crisis in the Middle East. At that time, prices had jumped to $120 per barrel. Prices were successfully stabilized and even decreased slightly, but the Middle East crisis has not yet concluded.
According to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun, the main risk for Washington right now is the price per barrel. There are currently about 240 million barrels of Russian and Iranian oil at sea, which is roughly two and a half days’ worth of global consumption, assuming an average daily demand of about 104 million barrels. Therefore, the US will extend the Russian exemption for another 30 days, until May 11, and the Iranian exemption until May 19. Without these volumes, the market will surge again, with oil at around $120, and the political cost to the White House of such a spike will be higher than the cost of temporarily easing sanctions.
In addition, Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the US is in the process of finalizing a very complex trade agreement with India. India is one of America’s largest trading partners, and it demands a certain degree of attention and respect. Leaving a country without fuel is not the best way to negotiate with it. Exemptions for Russian oil from US sanctions have allowed India to weather the Middle East crisis relatively smoothly so far. It is no coincidence that shipments of Russian oil to India nearly doubled in March.
Simonov pointed out that it is standard practice for the US to extend its sanctions exemptions for 30 days. However, if it is economically beneficial or politically necessary, they will extend the exemptions. In a global sense, though, they have no intention of lifting sanctions against Russia. Moscow is Washington’s competitor, and the US will reinstate the restrictions as soon as it becomes less painful to do so, the expert stressed.
According to Finam analyst Alexander Potavin, it is possible that the US is pressuring Ukraine to stop attacking Russia’s export infrastructure. However, this pressure will not be public; it will be exerted through diplomatic channels. The US has no interest in disrupting oil supplies from Russia amid extremely high market prices. In the medium term, however, the US government’s policy remains focused on undermining Russia’s oil revenues through sanctions.
Vedomosti: Aluminum and copper prices set to rise sharply in 2026
Prices of aluminum and copper on the global market are expected to rise by between 16% and 31% this year compared to last year, driven by the armed conflict in the Middle East and a decline in raw material production. Experts cite other reasons for this year’s price increases, including the Chinese government’s reaching its 45-million-ton-per-year domestic aluminum production target.
Specifically, aluminum prices are expected to rise by 16-25% to $3,050-3,300 per ton. The price of aluminum has been rising since February 2024 and is currently 9% higher than last year. Kept analysts estimate that Middle Eastern countries account for 8-9% of global output of this metal. The Strait of Hormuz, which was blocked by Iran during the conflict, is a strategic route for aluminum exports. As a result, metallurgical companies in Persian Gulf countries have been forced to shut down production facilities.
Kept analysts also expect a significant increase in copper prices in 2026. They estimate that prices will rise 26-31% from last year's level, reaching $12,500-$12,992 per ton. Kept told Vedomosti that the impact of the situation in the Middle East on the copper market will be noticeable if the armed conflict continues for a long time, leading to a significant rise in energy prices and a slowdown in the global economy.
Nikanor Khalin, senior analyst for the metals and mining sector at Euler, pointed out that the rise in copper and aluminum prices is being driven by increased demand across a number of industries, particularly China’s energy sector, amid limited supply.
At the same time, Finam analyst Alexey Kalachev emphasized that the long-term impact of the Middle East conflict on aluminum and copper prices is likely to be negative. Prolonged military action could lead to a reduction in global investment and production activity, as well as a drop in demand for raw materials.
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