MOSCOW, May 18. /TASS/. The US and Israel are preparing for new strikes against Iran; the US may extend the temporary waiver allowing third countries to purchase oil from Russia; and the anticipated resumption of Russia-Ukraine talks is delayed for now. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: US, Israel preparing for new strikes against Iran
Tehran is capable of mounting a significant retaliatory strike in the event of a new joint US-Israeli military operation. Domestic unrest is virtually nonexistent, and Iran’s missile capabilities have been recovered. Earlier reports indicated that Washington and Tel Aviv are preparing to resume strikes against Tehran in the near future due to a lack of progress in negotiations. In Lebanon, the parties have agreed to extend the ceasefire for 45 days, but a return to hostilities remains plausible there as well.
In the event of a renewed conflict with Iran, the US will adjust its strategy: rather than scattered attacks on Iranian territory, the new plans will focus on strategic waterways, primarily the Strait of Hormuz, Alisa Kazelko, a member of the Russian Export Center JSC and a Valdai expert, told Izvestia. "A ground operation, however, remains an extremely unlikely scenario. Washington clearly has no intention of repeating the costly Middle Eastern experience of the 2000s and will therefore prefer to use air and sea forces, which allow strategic goals to be achieved without a long-term military presence," she noted.
Meanwhile, Iran’s leadership has also consolidated political forces within the country. The likelihood of any serious armed uprising against the Iranian leadership within the country itself - both in the national periphery and in major cities - is practically zero today, Grigory Lukyanov, a senior lecturer at the Oriental Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out. "The Iranian side has carried out significant preparatory measures to reinforce its military might. A substantial portion of military facilities has been restored, primarily missile bases in mountainous regions, whose entrances were blocked as a result of US and Israeli strikes in the early days of the war," the expert noted. "This allows them to bring back into service an arsenal of missiles capable of striking both the military infrastructure of the US and Israel, as well as the territories of neighboring countries," he pointed out.
According to Lukyanov, the risk of escalation in Lebanon has diminished. The US has sufficient influence to keep the situation under control. Israel’s interest in escalation is currently limited to political processes within the country as the ruling coalition has proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset (the country’s parliament). New elections may take place in the fall. "If hostilities resume at the initiative of the Israeli government, it will happen at the moment when it delivers the greatest results for Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right Orthodox in the battle for voters," the expert predicted.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Chances of US allowing further oil imports from Russia
The US Treasury Department’s temporary waiver allowing third countries to purchase oil from Russia expired on May 16. Sanctions against Russian oil exports are now back in effect. However, that doesn’t mean Washington cannot change its mind in the coming days. A similar situation occurred a month ago with the previous waiver, and the global oil market situation has not improved since then. Despite less fighting in the Middle East, the situation is not easing. Prices remain above $100 per barrel of benchmark Brent crude. And the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly all oil and petroleum product shipments from the Persian Gulf countries pass, remains blocked on both sides.
According to International Energy Agency’s (IEA) estimates, total global market losses reached 12.8 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day in April. Reinstating the ban on third countries purchasing 6.1-6.2 million barrels per day of Russian oil and petroleum products would practically be suicidal, forcing prices to jump another $10-15. Moreover, this would damage US relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, with which Washington hopes to sign trade agreements. These countries were the main importers of raw materials from the Persian Gulf states, but now Russian oil is the only viable alternative to those supplies.
According to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, the waiver will most likely be extended once again. This is because the situation in the Persian Gulf is far from being resolved, and a new wave of escalation is more likely than the signing of any agreement between Tehran and Washington. However, the timing of a decision by the US - or possible rejection - will be determined more by the domestic political situation in the US than by the realities of the oil market. As is well known, these sanctions relief measures have drawn criticism from Congress, and therefore their extension is largely the result of internal political compromises, the expert noted.
Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that Russian oil will find a buyer even if the waiver is not extended. The price of Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel, oil reserves are shrinking, and there are currently no signs of an end to the conflict. Andrianov shares a similar view. When there is a severe global shortage of crude oil and a country is ready to supply significant volumes, it will have no shortage of buyers. If sanctions are reinstated, the discount on Russian oil will widen again. However, given the current situation, it is unlikely to surpass the level recorded at the beginning of 2026 ($30 per barrel and above), the expert emphasized.
Izvestia: Ukraine mum on negotiations with Russia to settle conflict
The resumption of negotiations, which all parties to the Ukrainian conflict have repeatedly signaled, has once again been postponed. Despite the recent ceasefire and humanitarian exchanges, the dialogue has not only reached an impasse; it has essentially disappeared. Moscow has received no signals from Kiev indicating a willingness to make progress toward a settlement. On the contrary, in the early morning hours of May 17, Ukrainian servicemen attacked the Russian capital and the Moscow region with drones. The strikes killed people and damaged residential buildings and businesses. Peace is simply not in the Kiev regime’s interest, which it seeks to demonstrate through its terrorist actions. However, some experts believe that the peace process could restart in the summer, during the US election campaign.
"An attack on Russian civilians is a serious act of terrorism that does not contribute to resolving the conflict," Moscow Pedagogical State University’s History and Politics Institute Deputy Director Vladimir Shapovalov told Izvestia. "A peaceful settlement is not in the interests of the Kiev regime, and it constantly demonstrates this. Therefore, progress in the peace process is more likely to be the result of the Russian Armed Forces' successful advances and achievement of military objectives in the special military operation zone," the expert pointed out.
American negotiators are likely to continue to pressure Kiev to withdraw from Donbass, Valdai Club expert Andrey Kortunov emphasized. During a recent trip to the US, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov likely requested that US arms deliveries remain at their current level. Currently, these deliveries continue through NATO’s PURL mechanism, whereby Europeans purchase weapons from Washington for Kiev. "Especially in the context of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, it is very important for Umerov and Zelensky that the US reaffirms the commitments it made even before the start of the conflict with Iran. First and foremost, this concerns the most sophisticated systems, such as Patriot systems, for which there are no European equivalents, and support in the field of military intelligence," the expert noted.
American diplomatic activity may increase this summer, especially if an agreement is reached with Iran. Ahead of the November congressional elections, Trump will likely want to demonstrate his achievements in Ukraine, so Washington may initiate a new round of trilateral talks this summer, Kortunov stressed. "Given the lack of achievements in other areas, foreign policy is becoming an important part of the Republican Party's midterm election strategy," he emphasized.
However, the opposite could also happen if the US distances itself from the conflict to avoid further attention to the lack of progress, political analyst Denis Denisov pointed out. "Trump cannot point to a success story in settling this conflict. As a result, any mention of it or discussions about it will reflect badly on Trump and the Republican Party," he told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Will US invade Cuba?
Cuba does not rule out the possibility of a US invasion or strikes and is preparing for such a scenario, media reported. In addition, on May 17, reports surfaced that the Cuban government had acquired 300 drones for potential strikes against the US base at Guantanamo Bay and US Navy ships. A US government official emphasized that these documents could be used as a pretext for a military operation against Havana. As an additional provocation, he cited the alleged presence of Iranian instructors in Cuba.
Cuba continues to face economic difficulties due to US sanctions against this backdrop, while Trump relentlessly promises to "deal with" the country, claiming it is "incapable." US pressure on Cuba intensified almost immediately after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. The situation worsened after the Americans kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January 2026, further deteriorating conditions. Administration officials, including Trump himself, did not rule out even a military scenario if Cuba did not agree to "reforms" of its political and economic systems and did not revise its foreign policy.
The Middle East conflict is saving Cuba from Trump and a potential invasion, but other pressures on the island will continue to mount anyway, Marina Chernykh, a researcher at the Domestic Politics Research Department at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. According to her, ordinary Cubans will resist any American intervention. Moreover, Trump and his team are held back by the fact that any military escalation could lead to a new wave of refugees entering the US and hurt the president’s approval ratings again. Nevertheless, if Trump does not abandon the idea of "taking" Cuba, this scenario could materialize after the midterm elections in November 2026.
Trump wants a genuine regime change, the release of political prisoners, and an end to Cuba's relations with China and Russia. The expert emphasized that Havana, for its part, could offer cooperation in security and fighting drug trafficking. However, this is unlikely to satisfy the current administration without significant Cuban concessions in political, economic, and foreign policy areas.
Kommersant: US wants to work with China to regulate artificial intelligence
One of the topics discussed during the US president’s visit to China was the rapidly advancing field of artificial intelligence (AI). Following the trip, Donald Trump announced that Washington and Beijing could agree on measures to regulate AI, which, in addition to its enormous benefits, also carries serious risks. Chinese authorities have not yet confirmed the possibility of reaching any agreements with Washington in this highly sensitive area. When the two sides first attempted to find common ground on AI under the previous US administration, they realized they were interested in completely different aspects.
Meanwhile, AI has continued to develop rapidly, and there is now a full-fledged technology race in which the Americans and Chinese are far ahead. The US is in first place, but China is catching up. AI is already being used in all areas of life, and recently with increasing intensity - in military affairs. The latest example is the US military and intelligence agencies' use of AI technologies in planning and carrying out attacks on Venezuela and Iran.
"If Washington and Beijing reach an agreement, it will most likely involve limited technical measures, such as restricting access to powerful AI models and preventing their use by non-state actors. They will also share risk assessments regarding cyberattacks, biological risks, fraud, and threats to critical infrastructure," Anna Sytnik, Coordination Laboratory CEO and associate professor at St. Petersburg State University, told Kommersant.
"The US may perceive this as a restriction on its own technological leadership, while China may see it as an attempt to solidify American dominance under the guise of security," the expert pointed out. "Therefore, any potential agreements will likely be modest, and compliance will be limited. This is partly because AI is harder to regulate than, for example, nuclear weapons," she noted. If Washington and Beijing reach an agreement, it will primarily apply to areas where their interests coincide. However, in the realm of military AI, the parties will retain freedom of maneuver, Sytnik emphasized.
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