MOSCOW, April 1. /TASS/. The fuel crisis facing the EU may force the bloc to lift its ban on Russian oil, and the United States may wrap up its Iran war without reopening the Hormuz Strait. Meanwhile, Ukraine strikes a northwest Russian seaport with drones from Baltic territory. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Fuel crisis may force EU to lift its ban on Russian oil
The Middle East crisis has already had a major impact on both motor and jet fuel and the existing rules of trading in oil and petroleum products. The United States has already suspended sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports. Even as the EU has not lifted its sanctions yet, the bloc has already pushed back a law to permanently ban Russian oil imports through the Druzhba pipeline. Unless the Middle East crisis ends soon, Brussels will have to consider easing its own restrictions on Russian oil as Europe will simply have no choice.
Maxim Malkov, a Kept partner and head of the firm’s oil and gas practice, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta in an interview that the EU’s capabilities regarding additional imports are very restricted amid a structural oil and petroleum supply deficit facing the global market. A few months prior to the Middle East crisis, the US and India were the largest suppliers to Europe, but the oil and petroleum deficit is a critical factor for India itself, while oil refineries in the US remain dependent on Middle East oil supplies. And there are currently no major alternative suppliers globally, Malkov emphasized.
Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, agrees that the EU severely limited its fuel sources when it refused to import oil and petroleum products from Russia by sea. Last month, Norway remained the largest supplier of crude to the EU: the Nordic country has long-term contracts with numerous European oil refineries and accounts for around a fourth of the European oil market, followed by the United States, which has an 18% share. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been one of the largest suppliers of petroleum products, including jet fuel, to the EU, and this structure creates a number of risks for the EU.
The EU could discuss easing restrictions in the event of a protracted deficit, Viktor Kutlumbetov, a consultant at Implement, argues. The ban could be formally lifted if EU member countries make a unanimous decision to do so. According to the expert, the likelihood of such a scenario remains limited.
Milchakova doubts the EU would lift its ban on petroleum made from Russian crude even if the conflict in the Middle East lingers. The bloc will more likely try to find alternative oil suppliers, such as Kazakhstan or Nigeria, but these deliveries will have their own risks, she warned.
Izvestia: US may wrap up its Iran war without reopening Hormuz
Even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, the United States may end its operation against Iran and declare victory, experts interviewed by Izvestia maintain. And Washington has enough arguments to justify this. Meanwhile, the pace of the US military buildup in the region may suggest that a ground invasion of Iran is still possible, and this carries certain risks for the United States.
If the United States stops its military operation against Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining partially closed, President Donald Trump will declare his win, Andrey Chuprygin, who heads the Middle East and North Africa department of the School of Asian Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), surmised. "He has already stated that the US has destroyed the [Iranian] ballistic and nuclear programs, eliminated military and political leaders and even sank [Iran’s] fleet. He will present this as evidence of his victory," the expert argued.
Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that Trump is ready to leave Iran even if the Hormuz Strait remains largely closed.
Political analyst Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, also believes that Trump is planning to declare US victory in the conflict. "He will likely argue that maximum damage has been inflicted on Iran’s defense capabilities, while its nuclear program has been destroyed. And that the country is weakened and no longer poses a military threat," the expert specified.
Persian Gulf monarchies which find themselves at a tipping point are facing a tough situation, Chuprygin continued. If Trump diverts his attention to another region, they risk confronting a serious enemy on their own. The expert sees a high likelihood of Trump withdrawing from the conflict, without waiting for the reopening of the waterway: the US leader failed to emerge as an instant winner, and he is eager to get away from that while domestic discontent with this campaign is growing.
However, an opposite scenario, too, could take place as the United States has been preparing a ground operation, no matter what, military expert Yury Lyamin told Izvestia. "It’s worth looking primarily at their actions as [US] troop deployment to the region continues, with airborne troops and Marines, or a rapid response force, being pulled there," he noted.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ukraine launches drones on Russia’s Ust-Luga from Baltic territory
Ukraine’s armed forces have continued to launch massive attacks on Russia using long-range drones. There has been an official confirmation of media reports that Baltic territory was used for drone launches against northwest Russia’s Leningrad Region. Estonia’s Defense Ministry said several Ukrainian UAVs flew over the Baltic country on Tuesday night.
According to experts, the Ukrainian army targeted seaports in the Gulf of Finland which handle Russian energy for export. Over the past few days, Ust-Luga, a Russian port only 25 km away from Estonia, was repeatedly attacked. Major fires erupted there, Leningrad Region Governor Alexander Drozdenko has said.
Prior to that, between March 23 and 25, allegedly stray Ukrainian drones flew toward facilities in the Leningrad Region, reports said. Some of those fell in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. And the Baltic states confirmed that Ukrainian drones fell on their territory.
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert, doubted that Ukrainian drones randomly flew above the Baltic states. "I don’t believe those were flyaway drones. I guess this is a well-organized show of provocation in which Ukraine’s partners pretend being unaware of Ukrainian plans to use their territory for attacks on Russia," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "The West has been provoking Russia to retaliatory strikes but this would trigger a war with NATO," he warned.
The Baltic countries have effectively been serving as a transit corridor for strikes on Russia. "A Swedish S102B Korpen reconnaissance aircraft was spotted near the Russian border, likely coordinating attacks on the Leningrad Region," political analyst Oleg Tsaryov, a former Ukrainian lawmaker, noted.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has expressed concern about the shortage of funding. Major risks remain in preparing for winter without a 90 billion euro loan, he told reporters. The media quoted the EU’s diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas as saying during a visit to Kiev on Tuesday that she cannot guarantee the release of these funds to Ukraine.
While Kiev has enough international reserves to use as funding for more than a year of continued hostilities and other expenditure, Zelensky has been reluctant to tap them as he relies on Western assistance, Tsaryov maintained.
Izvestia: Israel expands control of Gaza
Israel is seeking to expand its control of the Gaza Strip from the current share of about 58% of the territory following a ceasefire agreed in October 2025, a Fatah spokesman told Izvestia. According to the Palestinian side, this move may come amid a shifted international focus toward the escalation around Iran. In light of the ongoing fighting, a political crisis is deepening within Hamas, leadership elections are being delayed, and there is a widening disagreement over the future governance of Gaza. The Jewish state, meanwhile, intends to pursue the disarmament of Palestinian factions in the exclave through both political and military means.
Mohammed Faraj, an analyst at the Lebanese Al Mayadeen TV channel specializing in political and strategic issues, emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia that the Israeli leadership hoped to exploit the escalation around Iran to strengthen its posture in the region and weaken the Palestinian position. According to him, the resilience of Tehran has to a certain extent hindered the realization of these plans, as reflected in the dynamics of the conflict over Gaza. He also noted that the Palestinians view Iran's actions as supportive, since the international community has not taken any practical steps.
The issue of disarmament remains one of the most sensitive topics. Back in February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu estimated that Hamas may possess 60,000 guns. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, a draft proposal to completely demilitarize the sector, including all armed groups, has been presented to Hamas officials in exchange for an amnesty. However, the radical Palestinian movement views such initiatives as a threat rather than a serious negotiating proposal. The document ignores the political and ethnic aspects of the conflict, Hamas argues. The issue of disarmament is usually considered as one of the last stages of any agreements, and not as an initial condition, the movement emphasized.
"The process has been de facto on pause. The guarantors of disarmament are distracted by the Iranian-Israeli conflict and have little control over what is happening `on the ground’," Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia. Israel, driven by the doctrine of preventive defense, among other things, may have a reason to expand its offensive in the Palestinian enclave. On the other hand, he continued, the Jewish state has no interest in opening a new front or wasting forces, as even a limited military operation in Lebanon would require an additional force of 400,000 reservists.
Kommersant: US dollar strengthens by 3% over past month
The dollar exchange rate on the global market rose to a new monthly high: in March, the DXY index saw a more than 3% increase to consolidate above 100 points. Investors have thus reacted to rising energy prices, with the US being a net exporter, and a hawkish rhetoric from the Fed that has supported investment into Treasuries. The dollar stabilized at just above 81 rubles per USD, or 6% below the high reached on March 19, on the Russian market, driven by domestic factors.
The DXY rise reflects global risk-off amid the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf which has already triggered a spike in hydrocarbon prices.
Last month, Brent spot prices rose by 1.5-fold to trade above $112 per barrel, and natural gas prices soared by almost 60% to $640 per 1,000 cubic meters. Ruslan Klyshko, Director of the Wealth Management Department at AF Capital Asset Management, told Kommersant that rising oil prices have impacted the balance sheet of importing countries as they fuel inflation expectations, which makes their currencies more vulnerable. In these conditions, the US will be a net energy exporter, as it "has increased oil revenues which provide fundamental support to its balance of payments and fuels dollar strengthening," Yelena Nefyodova, the head of investment office at Astero Falcon, said.
The rising USD exchange rate globally has had little impact on the Russian currency market, with the greenback hovering in a narrow range between 81 and 82 per $1. In mid-March, it rose closer to 87/$1 and stayed below 78/$1 in February.
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