MOSCOW, March 18. /TASS/. The United States and Israel clash on how to end the Iran war, while Moscow and Washington seem likely to agree on Crimea. Meanwhile, the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict risks escalating into a full-out war. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: US, Israel disagree on how to end Iran war
The United States and Israel are diverging in their views on the next phase of the campaign against Iran: while Washington is ready to declare that it has achieved its goals and is easing its demands on Tehran, Israel insists on continuing the operation until the regime is completely weakened. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Iran has withstood military pressure and retained a significant share of its defense capabilities, which is gradually forcing the American and Israeli leadership to adjust their expectations. There are now emerging signs of a possible resumption of direct dialogue between Washington and Tehran; however, the parties’ positions remain highly contentious. Moreover, the situation may escalate at any moment due to the developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), the rationale behind US actions boils down to demanding a surrender from the Iranian leadership, either while retaining power or through a regime change to one more loyal to Washington. However, none of these scenarios is currently on the horizon. The Iranian elites have no incentive to make concessions: in the face of military pressure and the threat of physical elimination, they have "nothing to lose," so one cannot expect them to voluntarily retire from power or accept American conditions, he argued. "A scenario where the United States itself will take the first steps toward de-escalation appears more likely. Rising fuel prices, skepticism from a significant part of society, including Republicans, as well as the upcoming midterm election campaign may put pressure on Washington. If the conflict drags on for another month and a half, it risks becoming a political burden for the administration, which will push it to soften its stance," Loshkaryov noted.
Despite severe losses and damage to infrastructure, Iran has retained significant defense capabilities, Grigory Lukyanov, deputy dean of the Eastern Faculty at the Russian State Academic University for the Humanities, told Izvestia. According to him, even following strikes on military facilities, infrastructure and command structures, the Islamic Republic still has quite an ample arsenal for continued hostilities. "Tehran still has missile systems, as well as unmanned aerial and naval vehicles that can strike the enemy and demonstrate the ability for escalation. This has allowed Iran to dispute US and Israeli statements about a complete victory and influence the global political and economic agenda," Lukyanov said.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of Israel’s Channel 9, believes Trump will need to quickly demonstrate results, otherwise an early end to the campaign would allow Iran to declare victory. And this may bring major political consequences for his administration, therefore Washington will likely press ahead, despite the unresolved nuclear issue, he told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, Israel expects to weaken the enemy as much as possible and create conditions for potential changes inside Iran. According to Israeli Ambassador to Russia Oded Yosef, the military operation will continue "as long as it takes" until a leadership pursuing a different political course is formed in Tehran.
Izvestia: Russia, US could agree on Crimea
Over the past year, the United States and the EU have diverged over the possibility of recognizing Crimea as a Russian territory, among other issues. Key American politicians, including US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice President JD Vance, have increasingly leaned toward accepting Russian control in their rhetoric.
Meanwhile, negotiations toward resolving the Ukraine conflict have stalled, with no specific timeframes for the next round or information about whether Geneva talks will continue at all being available. The peace talks in Switzerland showed that territory remains the central issue. While debates, estimates and forecasts centered on Donbass in recent months, the status of Crimea remains key, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized back in November.
In fact, the absence of the Crimean issue in the agenda indicates certain progress, Permanent Representative of Crimea to the Russian President Georgy Muradov told Izvestia. "Not only did I believe that Russia and the United States could move closer toward recognizing the Russian status of Crimea, I still confirm that they certainly can. Because Trump has repeatedly stated, last year as well, that there is clarity around Crimea: its people wanted to join Russia and it joined Russia," Muradov said.
Richard Bensel, a professor of American politics at the New-York based Cornell University, argues that even as the United States will not formally recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, Washington seems to have actually agreed that "the cessation of Russian control is highly unlikely."
The US government may also recognize Crimea as Russian land to move forward in resolving the Ukraine conflict, according to Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor-in-chief of Covert Action magazine.
Meanwhile, Kiev’s rhetoric on Crimea, as on other issues in the context of peace talks, has been supported by Brussels. Since March 2025, European capitals have not sent a single signal that they could recognize Crimea as Russian land either de facto or de jure. However, Crimea will inevitably be recognized as a Russian peninsula, Vladimir Konstantinov, head of the Crimean parliament, told Izvestia. "I am sure that Crimea will receive international recognition when a new Western elite is formed that was not implicated in organizing the conflict in Ukraine," he said with confidence.
Media: Pakistan, Afghanistan risk sliding into full-out war
Pakistan has delivered massive airstrikes on the Afghan capital of Kabul, killing hundreds. According to Afghanistan, a Pakistani missile hit a drug rehab center. Islamabad has denied attacking a civilian facility, saying it targeted weapons and ammo depots being used for attacks on Pakistan. Amid the situation in Iran, the conflict between former fraternal neighbors risks escalating into another major regional war. And Pakistan rejected peace proposals with mediation from China as it committed to continuing the military operation against Afghanistan.
"If the conflict escalates into larger-scale clashes, the balance of forces will not look as unambiguous as it may seem. The Pakistani army is stronger, but betting on military power only may prove to be a strategic miscalculation, for in the event of an open conflict, Kabul will rely on anti-Pakistani armed formations that are active on Pakistani soil. Islamabad does not have similar leverage in Afghanistan," Omar Nessar, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, explained to Kommersant.
Russia is concerned about the conflict between Kabul and Islamabad, which could escalate into a full-out war, Russian presidential envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov told Izvestia. As Russia maintains good relations with both countries, Moscow is ready to act as a mediator if the two countries ask for help, he added. "We are trying to find a compromise solution that would bring an end to the clashes and move on to diplomacy," the Russian diplomat explained.
Experts have warned that an escalation would pose a risk to large regional projects, including the Trans-Afghan Railway Project. Its implementation directly depends on the level of security and may take at least five years. Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry called on both sides to return to the negotiating table.
Media: Whether Iran can set new shipping rules in Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iranian military will no longer operate in the mode that existed before the US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic, Iranian Parliament Speaker Bagher Ghalibaf warned on Tuesday, according to SNN television. The waterway will remain closed to civilian vessels amid the lack of security in the region, he explained. On the previous day, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said ships sailing under the flags of neutral countries can cross the strait but only if the Iranian military command authorizes.
The White House’s Economic Adviser Kevin Hasset argued that Iran’s attempts to hamper oil exports from Gulf countries have not harmed the US economy as he said that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen for tankers. Meanwhile, Washington has failed to build a broad coalition for safe shipping in the Persian Gulf. Britain, the only NATO ally who nearly joined the initiative, has revoked its participation, media reports said.
Much will depend on how the hostilities continue. Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher with the Center for Middle and Near East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that a large-scale US invasion of Iran will be impossible. "It will take a huge army to invade a country of 90 million that has combat-capable and substantial troops. Such an invasion would cause heavy casualties, and the United States is well aware of that. Meanwhile, a local operation to seize, say the Island of Kharg home to an Iranian oil terminal, is quite likely," the expert said.
The actual closure of the Hormuz Strait has been one of the most effective levers of influence exerted by Iran on the global economy and energy security, Stanislav Lazovsky, Junior Research Fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti. "The time of clear and stable rules of the game is over. Iran will never be the same, nor will economic ties between regional players be the same again," he said.
According to Lazovsky, continued hostilities in the Middle East will radically affect commercial shipping, with Asian and European economies, being the key consumers of Middle Eastern energy, most affected. "Commodity prices are steadily rising. Amid the bombing of oil tanks and oil rigs owned by Persian monarchies, their companies have halted operations and declared force majeure, which is reducing supply in global energy markets and pushing global inflation higher," he concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU presents final accession conditions to Kiev
On Tuesday, Kiev received a new list of requirements as part of concluding negotiation issues on accession to the EU, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko announced. According to her, closing negotiation clusters and signing an accession agreement will come next. But the new conditions were likely driven by ambitions to please Ukraine with any good news in a situation where EU leaders doubt it is ready to join the EU at all. Experts argue that Brussels will try to issue a 90 billion euro loan vetoed by Hungary to support Ukraine and continue its war on Russia.
According to Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor in European studies at St. Petersburg State University, the appearance of progress in talks on Ukraine’s EU accession is currently being staged. Amid the lack of any good news for Kiev, with Russian forces advancing on the front, and the escalated differences between Kiev and Budapest and Bratislava as well as an increasingly negative rhetoric from Washington regarding the Ukrainian government, Brussels seems to have presented the news as a gesture, the expert explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta. As regards the negotiation process, it has yet to begin for there is perhaps not a single EU leader who could recognize that Ukraine is ready for EU membership, he stressed.
"Europe has been lucky enough to find a country that could be ready to confront Russia," he continued. "And for a continued military conflict with Russia, the EU would likely agree to give Kiev necessary funds, albeit not as a general loan, but based on corresponding agreements with coalitions of two to three countries who committed to give Ukraine their share of assistance," Tkachenko concluded.
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