MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. Oil prices could fall to $60 per barrel or rise to $150 depending on how the situation around the temporary truce between the US and Iran develops, editor-in-chief of the InfoTEK analytical portal Alexander Frolov told TASS.
The expert emphasized the speculative nature of current market movements, noting that price trajectories will be closely tied to the news flow. "We can equally expect oil to fall to $60 per barrel or rise to $150 per barrel," Frolov said.
He pointed to two key questions following the ceasefire announcement: its durability and the speed of logistics recovery. If the truce evolves into lasting peace, the expert said, this would ease pressure on the global economy and allow physical supply volumes to return to previous levels. However, the timeline for this process remains unclear.
"We are talking about 8-11 mln barrels of oil per day and about 120 bln cubic meters of liquefied natural gas per year (in regasified volume terms). The speed of supply recovery depends on purely technical aspects of ramping up production and the extent of infrastructure damage," Frolov explained.
He did not rule out a scenario in which political peace is achieved quickly, while the physical recovery of supplies takes months. "It is possible that peace in the region is established, but restoring supplies before summer proves impossible. In that case, the risk of an energy shortage remains," he concluded.
On April 7, US President Donald Trump announced a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran. The decision was made in light of a proposal by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and is "subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz", the US leader said. Sharif invited Iranian and US delegations to talks in Islamabad on April 10 to reach a final agreement. According to CNN, the US delegation will include Vice President J.D. Vance, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.