MOSCOW, March 16. /TASS/. Washington is unlikely to succeed in persuading its allies to escort oil tankers in the Persian Gulf; Paris launches talks on joint nuclear deterrence with nearly a dozen European countries; and Russian petroleum product producers are redirecting fuel shipments to new markets. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Can US assemble coalition to control Strait of Hormuz
Washington will be unable to persuade its allies to escort oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, experts believe. US partners will likely limit their involvement to technical support and symbolic assistance. Earlier, President Donald Trump called on countries that depend on Middle Eastern oil to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran still has the resilience to resist, while the White House is beginning to realize that it has lost its grip on the situation.
Washington is trying to draw its European allies into the Middle East conflict, as the Americans are running out of ways to pressure the Iranian leadership, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. In his opinion, the White House is also trying to drive down energy prices, including by partially lifting sanctions on the Russian oil industry.
The US is trying to share the risks of the Middle East conflict with other countries and, if possible, expand the anti-Iran coalition, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, emphasized. European authorities condemn Iran for blocking the Strait of Hormuz, he noted. However, they are avoiding involvement in the highly unpopular American gamble.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to employ a strategy of asymmetric warfare, exploiting the enemy’s weaknesses, buying time, and inflicting irreparable damage on military and civilian infrastructure to undermine the alliance between the US and its key partners. The most desirable scenario for Tehran is to allow regional states to walk away from cooperation with the US toward cooperation without the involvement of external actors, Grigory Lukyanov, deputy dean of the Eastern Faculty at the Russian State Academic University for the Humanities, told Izvestia.
Despite the damage sustained, Iran still has the resources to resist, Middle East studies expert Leonid Tsukanov noted. "The initial projected timeframe for the operation, which estimated that Iran would surrender in a few days to two weeks, appears to have been inaccurate. The Americans’ planned budget has also been exceeded many times," he emphasized. According to the expert, the US has two options: launch a full-scale campaign with a ground component similar to the one in Iraq, which would risk prolonging the conflict, or conclude the operation by announcing symbolic victories.
Izvestia: What France's nuclear ambitions in Eastern Europe may result in
Paris has launched talks on joint nuclear deterrence with nearly a dozen European countries. France is particularly interested in Poland and Romania. The spread of weapons of mass destruction across the continent, with the potential for control over them to become fragmented, poses a threat to Russia’s security as well, the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized.
The spread of nuclear weapons, with the potential for control over them to become fragmented, poses threats not only to Russia’s security but to that of all nations on the planet, Russian ambassador to Romania Vladimir Lipayev told Izvestia. "It is regrettable that there are politicians in the West who forget that the atomic bomb is not a toy, and that possessing such weapons is, first and foremost, a huge responsibility toward one’s own people and humanity as a whole," the diplomat noted.
The degree of threat to Russia will directly depend on the number of French missiles in the nuclear arsenal and the delivery systems that may appear there, as well as the general-purpose forces supporting them, Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the International Security Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Izvestia.
The possibility of deploying French nuclear weapons on the territory of a particular European country will depend on two key factors. First, on the partner’s determination and willingness, since the host country automatically faces the risk of becoming a priority target for Russia in the event of a conflict. Second, it depends on how strategically necessary this is for Paris itself and what specific military-political objectives it would serve, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Mediterranean Studies Center of the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, emphasized. "However, the deployment of French nuclear warheads outside of French jurisdiction is still extremely unlikely. This would require major doctrinal changes and the development of the necessary infrastructure," the expert noted. According to Meloyan, the most likely scenario is the deployment of French Air Force jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons to allies' territories, which, in turn, would be presented as a temporary measure related to joint military drills.
Vedomosti: Cuba acknowledges start of talks with Trump administration
Amid growing public discontent, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel announced the start of talks with the US. According to him, this process aims to resolve bilateral disputes "through dialogue" and is currently at its initial phase.
At this stage, negotiations remain the best option for resolving the situation surrounding Cuba, Russian ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary Yan Burlyay told Vedomosti. He believes that during the dialogue, the parties could revise their initial positions and start with mutually acceptable proposals. Among such proposals, the expert lists economic liberalization on the island. "The US could very well start with this, hoping to later insist on changes to the political system," the diplomat noted.
Cuba is facing serious energy problems, so the local leadership has extremely limited leverage in negotiations with Washington, Marina Chernykh, a researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out. According to the expert, talks between the two countries have been ongoing for some time, although Trump’s ultimate goal is to force Cuba to make concessions. Chernykh stressed that a large-scale invasion should not be expected from the Americans, though the risk of a limited operation similar to what occurred in Venezuela earlier this year still remains. "Even in this case, however, Washington can expect to incur greater costs than in Venezuela. This is because the Cuban population will resist, unlike people in Venezuela," the expert said. She explained that the US’ main goal is regime change and the holding of new elections. In return, Cuba could offer cooperation in various areas, such as fighting international drug trafficking and illegal immigration. "This is important to Washington, but it is not enough. Therefore, the Trump administration will continue to pressure the island in every possible way. Meanwhile, Havana will continue to resist," Chernykh emphasized.
Kommersant: Russia seeks new markets for petroleum products
As more traditional partners have stopped purchasing due to sanctions, Russian petroleum product producers are redirecting fuel shipments to new markets. For example, Russia has doubled its diesel exports to Brazil, and naphtha shipments previously purchased by Taiwan have been redirected to other Asian countries and African markets. Meanwhile, the sale of over 300,000 tons of naphtha and diesel fuel, which had been suspended due to US sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum products, has been resumed. This will allow refiners to boost their revenues, which fell sharply in 2025.
Russian Price Index Center Director Roman Sokolov told Kommersant that the first signs of an increase in Russian petroleum product shipments to Latin America appeared as early as late November 2025, when freight indices for this route rose by 20%. A second surge occurred in late January 2026, confirming continued interest in the route.
Andrey Yeremin, head of commodity markets at Alfa-Capital Management, attributed the increase in Russian diesel shipments to Brazil to a global restructuring of logistics amid sanctions. According to him, the agricultural sector is the primary consumer of fuel in the country. After withdrawing from the European market, Russia offered Latin America competitive prices and acceptable quality, he noted.
Maksim Shaposhnikov, an advisor to the manager of the Industrial Code fund, pointed out that it is unlikely that fundamentally new major buyers of Russian petroleum products will emerge.
However, against the backdrop of a fuel shortage in Europe, some African countries may show interest in certain shipments. At the same time, the expert pointed out that trading costs are rising because traders must change their usual resale routes through the UAE, which increases the cost of fuel.
Kommersant: Russian wheat prices reach seven-month peak
The price of Russian wheat on global markets has increased by $4 per week, reaching $238-$240 per ton. This is the highest level since August 2025. Wheat prices are also rising in competing producers. Wheat prices depend on hydrocarbon prices due to high fuel and lubricant consumption, as well as the need for nitrogen fertilizers. Global market conditions are affecting domestic buyers: Russian consumers are willing to pay more for grain.
Analysts also noted price increases for wheat from Bulgaria, Romania, the US, Argentina, and Australia. After trying to lower purchase prices at ports, exporters were forced to adjust their approach, Dmitry Krasnov, director of the Agribusiness Competence Center at Rexoft Consulting, told Kommersant. According to Sovekon Director Andrey Sizov, wheat purchase prices are rising alongside futures prices. He attributed the increase in part to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
Artyom Suvorov, a project manager at Strategy Partners, said the military conflict is causing higher freight and ship insurance costs, which also affects grain prices. The market is also being supported by concerns over future supply in the Black Sea region, the expert added. At the same time, according to Sizov, global demand for wheat remains relatively high.
The expert stressed that the potential for growth in wheat export prices has likely not been fully exhausted. In turn, Krasnov noted that if the fertilizer shortage on the global market persists, it could lead to lower expectations for the upcoming grain harvest, thereby supporting demand and prices for Russian grain.
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