MOSCOW, March 23. /TASS/. The US may soon conduct a ground operation on Iran’s Kharg Island to deprive Tehran of oil revenues and undermine its budget; high oil prices could bring nearly $41.5 billion to the Russian budget; and the semiconductor industry is facing risks amid the Middle East conflict. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Washington getting ready for ground operation in Iran
Tensions in the Middle East have recently escalated significantly. Tehran has attacked nuclear facilities in Israel for the first time in response to the enemies’ similar strikes. US President Donald Trump has threatened to disable Iranian power plants if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Washington may also launch a ground operation: the White House believes that capturing Kharg Island could deprive Iran of oil revenues and undermine its budget.
Experts say the likelihood of an amphibious operation on Kharg Island is high, but the Pentagon's readiness to mitigate associated risks will determine the final decision. "The Pentagon is staffed by pragmatists. They won’t launch the mission until they’re convinced that the risk of the landing force being wiped out has been minimized," military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, oriental studies expert Kirill Semenov pointed out three key factors that make the US plan extremely risky: geography, logistics, and the "scorched earth" tactic.
By deploying additional US troops to the region, Trump is most likely preparing for a new phase of escalation in the Middle East, as Tehran refuses to compromise and is making demands that the White House considers too high for the resumption of negotiations, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. "Given the parties’ unwillingness to make mutual concessions, the likelihood of conflict escalation is extremely high. This is driven by domestic political pressure on Trump amid rising fuel prices, which are a sensitive issue for Americans," the expert stressed.
Theoretically, Trump could launch a symbolic or "parting" strike against Iran after the 48-hour deadline expires, while declaring victory, American studies expert Alexey Naumov noted. The White House will make a last-minute decision on the use of ground forces against Tehran if the conditions are favorable, he stressed. "As a rule, the American president always leaves himself room to maneuver for a potential exit from the war. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could influence certain decisions made by Trump within his inner circle," the analyst emphasized.
Izvestia: High oil prices could bring in nearly 41.5 billion dollars to Russian budget
The conflict around Iran has caused the price of Russian oil to increase by more than 70%. If this situation persists until the end of the year, experts say it could generate up to 3.5 trillion rubles (nearly 41.5 billion dollars) in additional revenue for the budget, which would be enough to cover most of its deficit, analysts say. In addition, higher commodity prices will strengthen the ruble.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the near-total absence of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have led to oil prices settling firmly at three-digit levels. On March 20, Brent was trading at around $110 per barrel and Russian Urals at $106.
Meanwhile, this year's federal budget was drafted based on a commodity price of $59. "If Urals remains in the $90-100 per barrel range, additional budget revenues could amount to about 2.5-3.5 trillion rubles (about 29.6-41.5 billion dollars - TASS). If prices partially change in the second half of 2026, the final effect will be closer to 1.5-2 trillion rubles (approximately 17.7-23.7 billion dollars - TASS)," Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov told Izvestia. This effect is currently amplified by the ruble’s depreciation of about 10% since early March: the Central Bank’s exchange rate is 84 rubles per dollar as of March 23. This increases exporters’ ruble-denominated revenue and directly boosts the tax base, Chernov added.
According to Absolut Bank department head Andrey Shadrin, given the current market conditions, oil and gas revenues to the Russian budget will rise from 400 billion rubles (4.7 billion dollars) per month to more than one trillion (11.8 billion dollars), meaning that each month of the Strait of Hormuz blockade will bring in at least 600 billion (7.1 billion dollars).
"In the short term, over the next few weeks, oil prices will be highly sensitive to developments around Iran. An escalation of tensions, particularly in the form of attacks on oil and gas facilities or tankers, will inevitably lead to further price increases, pushing prices closer to $150 per barrel. At the same time, signs of a possible end to the conflict, or at least a reduction in attacks on energy infrastructure, will stabilize prices. Iran’s latest statement regarding its intention to charge a fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is precisely one such sign," Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, noted.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Risks of disruptions in LNG, helium supplies weigh on global microelectronics market
The semiconductor industry is facing risks that people tend to overlook in calmer times. State-of-the-art factories depend on basic necessities, such as a stable power supply, a steady flow of chemical materials, and efficient logistics. The war in the Middle East has turned this part of the global supply chain into a high-risk zone. While there is not yet an immediate shortage of microchips and processors, there is increased uncertainty and cost, thus raising the risk of price hikes.
Taiwan produces about 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of advanced processors, the very ones found in smartphones, computers, and data centers. Taiwan’s TSMC holds 64-70% of the global market for contract chip manufacturing. At the same time, Taiwan is one of the world's most vulnerable economies in terms of energy, Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at the Implementa consulting firm, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The region imports more than 90% of its energy resources, and natural gas accounts for nearly half of its electricity generation. And the key problem is very limited reserves.
Maksim Malkov, a Kept partner and head of the firm’s oil and gas practice, estimates that Taiwan’s LNG reserves for power generation will last 10-12 days. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not normalize within two or three weeks, Taiwan will purchase LNG from any available source, regardless of the price. The expert pointed out that rising LNG and electricity prices will be passed on to Taiwanese electronics manufacturers' high-tech products.
There is also a technical issue. It relates to helium, which is used in semiconductor production. Helium is obtained through the processing of natural gas. The cost of spot helium shipments (under short-term contracts) has already doubled, Implementa noted.
However, Roman Tinyaev, a Strategy Partners partner, said that it would be an exaggeration to speak of a collapse of the global semiconductor industry. The microchip market now depends more on the stability of the entire infrastructure than on a single narrow shortage. If tensions in the region persist for months, several links in the supply chain will be under immediate pressure, including energy, helium, industrial chemicals, logistics, and delivery times. This will lead to higher prices for electronics.
Izvestia: Nigeria interested in Russian weapons due to terrorist attacks
Nigeria is showing interest in Russian weapons amid its ongoing fight against terrorism. Following a series of bombings on March 16 that killed at least 23 people, the issue of military-technical cooperation has become particularly pressing. The fight against Islamists has already gone beyond domestic efforts: in December, the US, with the support of local authorities, carried out strikes on militant camps. However, experts emphasize that systemic problems - rapid population growth, poverty, and a severe shortage of resources in outlying areas - are hampering efforts to suppress terrorism.
The security situation in Nigeria remains critical. Torn by ethnic conflicts, separatist sentiments, and religious strife, the country needs weapons. "Nigeria is interested in Russian weapons primarily because of large-scale challenges. These include the activities of Islamic extremist groups linked to international terrorist networks, as well as piracy in the Gulf of Guinea," the Russian embassy in Abuja told Izvestia.
The terrorist threat in Nigeria has not declined over the past 15 years, Vsevolod Sviridov, deputy director of the Center for African Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, emphasized. Groups operating in the region include Boko Haram and ISWAP (also known as Islamic State - West Africa Province; an organization recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia). "They are fighting for control over illegal trafficking, infrastructure, and the extortion of the population," Sviridov emphasized. According to him, a combination of demographic pressure and chronic socioeconomic problems is preventing Nigeria from completely defeating terrorism. Nevertheless, the government is gradually stabilizing the situation. Areas of instability are gradually shrinking, and the country’s economy is growing, the expert added.
Meanwhile, Alexander Shipilov, a research fellow at the Institute of General History of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that Russian companies are interested in mineral extraction, grain supplies, and fertilizers. "The fuel and energy sector is the foundation of the Nigerian economy, but the country lacks the capacity to process raw materials," Shipilov explained. "There is fierce international competition for access to these resources, and Russian companies often lack the long-term financing needed to successfully compete with Western giants," he noted.
Kommersant: International investors actively sell off gold
Global investors withdrew the largest amount of funds from gold assets in the first half of the year. These sales are linked to profit-taking amid fears of accelerating inflation due to rising commodity prices, which could lead to tighter monetary policies by global central banks.
According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), international investors are selling gold assets. Kommersant's estimates, based on a Bank of America report, show that clients of gold funds withdrew $4.5 billion during the week ending February 26. This is nearly five times the amount withdrawn in the previous week, marking the largest outflow since October 2025. From the beginning of March, fund losses totaled $7.2 billion.
The reduction in gold investments is linked to portfolio rebalancing amid active hostilities in the Persian Gulf. According to Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa-Capital Asset Management, the blockade on oil and petroleum product sales is creating a significant revenue shortfall, which could be covered by selling gold.
A decline in investor interest in gold has driven down its price. On March 20, the price of gold fell below $4,500 per troy ounce for the first time since February 3, marking a 10.5% drop from the previous week and a 15% decline from late February levels. "Gold remained one of the most overbought assets. Now, we are seeing a partial unwinding of long positions," investment banker Ilya Sushkov told Kommersant. "Some capital is flowing out of gold into bonds, certain stock segments, and cash," the expert pointed out.
In the coming weeks, global investor behavior and gold price dynamics will largely depend on how the conflict in the Middle East develops. "Oil prices may continue to rise, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may remain paralyzed, and the region’s production and refining infrastructure may be destroyed. If events unfold this way, pressure on gold may continue," Skryabin noted. In turn, Alexey Mikheyev, investment strategist at VTB Investment, anticipates a drop in the price of gold to $4,000 per troy ounce in the coming weeks.
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