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Experts improve forecast for decline in Russia's GDP to 7.5% from 9.2% in 2022

As stated in the report of the Central Bank of Russia, the forecast for economic growth in 2024 increased by 0.1 percentage points. up to 1.8%

Bank of Russia Мihail Тereshenko/ТАСС

Bank of Russia

© Мihail Тereshenko/ТАСС

MOSCOW, June 3. /TASS/. Experts interviewed by the Bank of Russia improved the forecast for decline in the country’s GDP for 2022 from 9.2% to 7.5%. The forecast for the growth of the Russian economy for 2024 increased by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 1.8%, according to the regulator's report. Estimated long-term GDP growth rates also increased by 0.1 pp to 1.5%.

The median inflation forecast for Russia in 2022 in a survey conducted in May fell by 5 pp to 17%, for 2023 - by 0.9 pp to 6.7%, and remained unchanged for 2024 - at the level of 5%. Analysts expect inflation to return to the target level of 4% in 2025.

Also, in 2022, analysts expect the dollar to average at 75 rubles, in 2023 - 80 rubles, in 2024 - 85.1 rubles, which is an increase of 10-10.9 rubles in comparison with the April survey.

The median forecast for the average key rate for 2022 decreased by 3.4 pp to 11.1% per annum, for 2023 - by 2.4 pp to 8%, for 2024 - by 0.5 pp to 7%. In 2025, analysts expect to see the average key rate to decline further to 6.3%.

Analysts also lowered their unemployment forecast for the end of 2022 by 0.4 pp to 6.5%, by 0.1 pp to 5.9% at the end of 2023, by 0.5 pp to 5% at the end of 2024. At the end of 2025, analysts forecast unemployment rate of 4.9%.

In addition, analysts expect nominal wages to grow by 10% or 0.2 pp in 2022. The forecast for 2023 and 2024 was reduced by 0.4 pp to 7%, and by 0.3 pp to 6.7%, respectively. In 2025, analysts expect growth to slow down to 6.2%.

At the same time, the value of exports is expected to decrease significantly - from $550 bln in 2021 to $502 bln in 2022 and further to $433-438 bln in 2023-2025. Compared to the April survey, the export forecast was slightly increased for 2022, but lowered for 2022 and 2024. The forecast for imports of goods and services was raised by $10-14 bln over the entire forecast period. Analysts predict a decline in the value of imports from $379 bln in 2021 to $280 bln in 2022. In 2023-2025, the figure is expected to recover and reach $301 bln, $318 bln, and $338 bln, respectively.

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