TOKYO, April 9. /TASS/. The current ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran could be easily broken due to various reasons, but the world will have to assume that Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a route that used to carry a fifth of global oil exports, Research Fellow of the Japanese National Institute for Defense Studies Yoshida Tomoaki told the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper.
"Iran managed to drag the US into a war of attrition," the expert noted. "This has left Washington tired of the military actions. As a result, Tehran concluded that the moment has come to declare victory and cease hostilities, since, with the death of its supreme leader, it needed to establish a new system of governance headed by the military. China could support Iran through Pakistan as a mediator in the conflict."
"It is highly likely that talks over a ceasefire will be difficult," Yoshida, considered a Middle East expert in the Japanese Defense Ministry, suggested. "Even if agreements on prolonged ceasefire and Iran’s fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz are reached, the disputes over Tehran’s missile and nuclear forces and its support for pro-Iranian groups in the region, are likely to remain deadlocked." Moreover, the expert says that Israel is not going to comply with demands to halt strikes on Lebanon, as it is silently aiming to undermine the ceasefire.
"The situation, when the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran, persists," Yoshida recalled. "It has become the new normal, which requires the world to reconsider its approaches to security and economic policy."
On April 7, US President Donald Trump declared two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran. The US president stated that the decision was made with Iran’s readiness to open the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, in turn, agreed to halt "defensive attacks" as long as no strikes are carried out against Iran. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, as a mediator between the parties, invited them to talks on April 10.