MOSCOW, February 4. /TASS/. Russia and Ukraine are poised to hold a second round of talks in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5; the New START arms control treaty between the US and Russia expires on February 4 with no extension agreed; and the European Commission is considering a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the end of 2027. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Russia, Ukraine head toward second round of Abu Dhabi talks
Moscow and Kiev are preparing to enter a second round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5. On the eve of the new contacts, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte arrived in the Ukrainian capital, stating that peace would require tough decisions. At the same time, media reports emerged about the coordination of a Western approach to support a future agreement. The meeting will take place against the backdrop of an energy ceasefire that has now expired, during which Kiev behaved with relative restraint, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s ambassador-at-large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. However, expectations for the round in the Emirates should remain modest, experts say.
The previous round took place on January 23-24. Although those contacts ended without a clear compromise on the territorial issue, Russian sources described them as not without results. An important development was also a meeting between Steve Witkoff and Russian presidential special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, held on January 31 in Florida. Another event that followed the first round was the energy ceasefire.
"Last week (from January 26 to February 1 - Izvestia), the Ukrainian side behaved fairly restrained, again against the backdrop of the implementation of the energy ceasefire," Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s ambassador-at-large for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
Andrey Kortunov, expert at the Valdai Club, told Izvestia he believes it is unlikely that any major breakthroughs should be expected from the talks. The Ukrainian leadership reacted painfully to the resumption of strikes on energy infrastructure, as it had counted on the Russian moratorium being indefinite. In addition, the composition of the Russian delegation has not changed, which means that the agenda will not include broader political aspects of the settlement but rather military and technical issues, as was the case after the first round.
"In particular, the parameters of buffer zones, the monitoring and oversight of ceasefire arrangements, as well as the risks of escalation may be discussed. At the same time, fundamental topics — territorial issues and Ukraine’s future status in the European security system — should be discussed in a separate format, most likely at a higher level," he told Izvestia.
On the eve of the meeting, on February 3, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte arrived in Kiev, where he announced the possible deployment of foreign contingents from NATO countries on Ukrainian territory immediately after the conclusion of an agreement.
"Rutte is known as a mediator between Trump and his opponents in the camp of the globalists," Oleg Karpovich, head of a department at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s MGIMO University, told Izvestia. "His statement about sending NATO troops to Ukraine confirms that the alliance’s secretary general is acting as a provocateur, trying to derail the efforts of diplomats. The ability of the sides to reach agreements following the next round of negotiations largely depends on Washington’s readiness not to succumb to such provocations and to maintain its commitment to the ‘Anchorage formula’," he added.
Vedomosti: World enters uncharted territory as US-Russia New START Treaty expires without renewal
The final day of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) falls on February 4, 2026. The United States has not responded to a proposal made by Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2025 to continue observing the treaty’s quantitative limits on warheads and their delivery systems for one more year after its expiration. The document itself does not provide for another formal extension, as was done in 2021. As a result, beginning on February 5, if no reaction comes from Washington, the last bilateral agreement regulating US-Russia relations in the sphere of strategic stability will become history, Vedomosti writes.
For now, it is too early to speak of a comparable replacement for the New START Treaty, head of the military-political studies department at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Oleg Krivolapov told Vedomosti. According to the expert, Trump is not interested in a substantive discussion of the issue. At the same time, he believes it is also too early to talk about a new round of arms racing stemming from the absence of legally binding control mechanisms.
"The spirit of Anchorage has not yet been translated into practical policy in the field of strategic stability," Prokhor Tebin, director of the Center for Military-Economic Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told the newspaper.
In his view, even if a new treaty does eventually emerge, the path toward it will be extremely difficult because of theaccumulated problems. "Washington is not fully showing readiness to engage in substantive and pragmatic discussions of complex issues or to seek compromises," the expert stressed. As for a new arms race, he believes it "is already in progress."
Classic agreements like the New START have not lost their relevance, but they cannot "embrace the unembraceable," nor can they easily be extended to a broader number of participants, researcher at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Dmitry Stefanovich believes. He stressed that there are still no real signals of the Trump administration’s readiness to develop a new treaty framework. "But perhaps the expiration of New START will serve as a strong reason for clarifying US approaches. It is possible that something interesting could happen as early as February 2026," the expert said.
Izvestia: US Envoy Witkoff visits Israel ahead of Iran talks
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Israel on February 3 for a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is expected to then travel to Istanbul for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The meeting, organized with the mediation of Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, will mark the first attempt at dialogue amid threats from Donald Trump to unleash a "massive armada" against Tehran. While the American emissary coordinates positions with the Israeli leader, Moscow is offering its own way out of the impasse, Izvestia writes.
At the same time, both the United States and Iran are signaling readiness for negotiations. President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered the start of dialogue with Washington after Trump expressed hope for reaching a deal capable of preventing a military conflict. According to Fars, Tehran’s decision opens the way for a direct discussion of the nuclear issue.
Meanwhile, in Moscow, efforts are already underway to find a workable solution to the crisis, Izvestia writes. In recent days, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, visited the Kremlin. According to New York Times sources, he delivered a personal message to Vladimir Putin from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The essence of the proposal: Iran may agree to move its surplus enriched uranium to Russian territory.
Iran’s leaders may be willing to make limited concessions to the United States in order to preserve their power and avoid military escalation, senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies Vladimir Sazhin told Izvestia.
"Clear-minded representatives of the IRGC may agree to some demands from Washington, but full compliance — dismantling the nuclear program, reducing missile capabilities, and ending support for Shiite proxy forces in the Middle East — would in effect amount to capitulation," he explained.
The White House remains skeptical about the prospects for productive talks, although US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would apparently prefer to reach an agreement with the Iranian authorities, editor-in-chief of the website of Israel’s Channel 9 Roman Yanushevsky noted.
"Military equipment continues to be moved into the region. We will definitely have several days of relative calm, at least until the talks are declared deadlocked," he told Izvestia.a
Vedomosti: India weighs concessions to secure Trump’s tariff cuts
New Delhi is set to receive "the best possible deal" following an agreement reached on February 2 between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to cut tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal said at a briefing on February 3. Late on February 2, Trump announced that he had reached an understanding with Modi. According to Trump, Washington will fully repeal the 25% surcharge imposed in late August 2025 on Indian goods for purchasing Russian oil, claiming that Modi had agreed to halt such imports. Experts told Vedomosti India is unlikely to abruptly abandon Russian oil, instead pursuing a phased reduction as it balances access to the US market with the need for affordable energy.
For India, the United States and the European Union are nearly equal trade partners, Andrey Gnidchenko, leading expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, told the newspaper. Competition between the US and the EU for access to the Indian market does exist, he said, and a deal with the European bloc may have sped up talks with Washington. "But negotiations on both agreements proceeded independently and took a long time. In such talks, terms are worked out step by step," Gnidchenko said.
At the same time, the economist continued, it is notable that India has not confirmed its intention to stop buying Russian oil. Such a move is unlikely to be immediate and would more likely be gradual and partial — an option that would be most acceptable for New Delhi given its ties with Moscow, Gnidchenko suggested. "India has to balance access to the vast US market with the ability to import cheap energy resources. Another argument in favor of a gradual reduction in Russian oil purchases is that Venezuela is unable to ramp up oil exports overnight due to infrastructure limits," the analyst added.
Based on the experience of 2025, it is worth refraining from "catastrophic" forecasts about India’s consumption of Russian oil, researcher at the Center for the Indo-Pacific Region at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Gleb Makarevich told Vedomosti. Trump likely linked India’s tariff relief to its purchases of Russian oil in the way he himself wanted to present from Modi, Makarevich noted. According to Kpler data, Russia’s share of India’s oil imports stood at 33% at the end of 2025, down from roughly 37% in 2024, amid tighter US oversight and EU sanctions.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: EU moves toward full ban on Russian oil imports by 2027
The European Commission is considering a plan to fully ban imports of Russian oil no later than the end of 2027. The measure would target the remaining supplies to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline that were not covered by the EU’s December 2022 embargo, which applied only to seaborne oil exports, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
Last year, 9.73 mln metric tons of crude were pumped through the southern branch of Druzhba, with shipments going to Hungary and Slovakia. The Czech Republic previously received oil along the same route but voluntarily stopped importing Russian crude oil in the spring of 2025. On the northern branch of the pipeline, deliveries of Russian oil to Germany and Poland have not taken place since 202
For Russia, the remaining oil exports to Europe account for just over 4% of its total overseas shipments, the newspaper writes. However, in monetary terms their share is likely much higher, since the EU’s price cap does not apply to pipeline supplies.
From a political standpoint, the continued flow through Druzhba is more important for Russia than its economic value, associate professor at the Financial University under the Russian Government Valery Andrianov told the newspaper. These supplies allow Hungary and Slovakia — countries that have taken a relatively balanced stance in the current conflict between Russia and the West — to remain provided with energy resources. The expert also noted that efforts are underway to cut these countries off from Russian gas as well, which undermines their economic potential.
According to Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics, a full ban on Druzhba shipments would likely lead to higher costs for Russian companies and at least a temporary decline in volumes as supplies are rerouted. Still, he believes the losses would not be critical.
Mark Shumilov, analyst covering the resource sectors at Renaissance Capital, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the government has been preparing in advance for a gradual reduction in flows along this route. To that end, Transneft has expanded pipeline capacity to the ports of Novorossiysk (15 mln metric tons) and Primorsk (10 mln metric tons). This will make it possible to redirect Russian oil exports to seaborne routes if pumping through Druzhba is fully halted.
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