MOSCOW, January 13. /TASS/. Donald Trump’s threats and actions following events in Venezuela heighten tensions across Latin America; Washington is considering a mix of pressure and diplomacy toward Iran amid continuing protests; and the dispute over Greenland has intensified transatlantic tensions. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Trump seeks to reshuffle power balance in Latin America
The United States has failed to neutralize the influence of Russia and China in Venezuela, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Meanwhile, following the seizure and arrest of Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump began issuing threats to other countries in the region as well – Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia. Mexico City chose a path of negotiation with Washington, while Havana and Bogota reacted far more sharply, even declaring readiness to confront the Americans with force. However, experts assess the US president’s chances of reviving the Monroe Doctrine as low.
The military operation in Venezuela and Donald Trump’s subsequent threats toward Latin American countries sparked widespread outrage across the region. National leaders expressed their willingness to resist US expansion.
Cuba may be next in line - Trump said that Venezuelan oil and funds would no longer be sent to the island, advising it to strike a deal with Washington or face unspecified consequences. Under Trump’s plan, "something" has to be done about Mexico as well, where, in his view, the influence of organized crime is excessively strong. When asked by Izvestia whether contingency measures had been developed in Mexico in the event of a US military incursion, the Mexican Embassy in Russia said that it had nothing to report on the matter at this time. Trump also threatened Colombia, addressing his remarks directly to the country’s president. US actions in Latin America, the White House noted, constitute a revival of the Monroe Doctrine.
According to Konstantin Blokhin, research fellow at the Center for the Study of Security Problems at the Russian Academy of Sciences, it will take several years to restore the doctrine, and Trump will not manage to accomplish this within his presidential term. In his view, over the remaining three years of Trump’s term, it is only possible to outline certain elements of a broader strategy, during which the United States will seek to reduce the influence of China and Russia in the region.
Moreover, the operation in Venezuela will further intensify anti-American sentiment, further complicating the implementation of the doctrine, US political analyst Malek Dudakov added. Trump’s actions will slow growth in popularity of right-wing movements in the region, the expert believes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Washington tries to balance diplomacy and force as Iran protests escalate
US President Donald Trump has allowed for the possibility of resuming negotiations with Iran, but only after the United States conducts military strikes against the Islamic Republic, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The White House believes that Tehran has begun crossing a "red line" by suppressing anti-government demonstrations that began on December 28. On Monday, January 12, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi convened a meeting with the heads of foreign diplomatic missions, during which he assured them that the situation in the country is under full control and stressed that the authorities are ready to repel any aggression from abroad.
On Tuesday, January 13, Trump is expected to hold another meeting with his national security team to discuss ways of supporting the Iranian opposition and weakening the country’s central authorities. The most radical options are being examined, including strikes on the positions of Iranian security forces.
Meanwhile, Iranian authorities emphasize that protest activity is subsiding. Tehran Province Governor Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian stated that on Sunday evening, January 11, the number of protest groups had significantly decreased. However, the facts suggest otherwise, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Law enforcement officials in Khorasan Razavi Province reported that, as a result of street clashes, a member of Iran’s general staff was killed for the first time.
At the same time, military and economic pressure on Iran may produce the opposite effect. Speaking with Israel Hayom, Danny Citrinowicz, an expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, explained that one possible scenario is that intensified repression could push certain factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to seize power by force and govern the country as a military junta - even if a civilian government formally continues to exist. "The absence of a genuine opposition means that a deterioration of the situation may end not with Iran’s liberation, but with its fall into the hands of even more conservative forces," the researcher emphasized.
On the other hand, he explained, Iran’s supreme leadership may use current developments to mobilize the most loyal segments of society against an external enemy, which would weaken the protests.
Izvestia: Dispute over Greenland threatens transatlantic unity, raises questions about NATO’s future
The dispute over control of Greenland has triggered the most serious crisis within the Western camp in the 21st century and is deepening mistrust in transatlantic ties, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. The European NATO wing wants to use the situation surrounding the Danish autonomous territory to expand the alliance’s military presence there. The issue of control over the island is set to be discussed at talks in Washington on January 14. Experts do not rule out any scenario, including the implementation of a military one.
According to Bloomberg, Germany has proposed that NATO establish a mission to control the situation in the region. A group of European countries led by Germany and the United Kingdom is also discussing the possibility of a military presence in Greenland to prevent its accession to the United States, Bloomberg noted. However, the UK defense secretary has denied reports about the possible deployment of a contingent.
The alliance’s idea of militarizing the island closely mirrors issues that were recently discussed by the so-called "coalition of the willing" in relation to Ukraine, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin told Izvestia. "We are being urged to believe that such localized deployments of NATO units in various regions of the world will strengthen stability. But this is complete nonsense, a harmful concept that cannot be accepted," the politician stressed.
French and British ground forces could be sent to Greenland to signal Europe’s presence on the island, military expert Igor Nikulin believes. Europeans are counting on Trump refraining from the open use of force. "All of their threats are purely demonstrative and aimed at media impact," the expert told Izvestia, noting that European actions would not stop Trump if he decided to take control of the island.
At the same time, the European idea of jointly reinforcing Greenland together with the United States is more of a counterproposal to Trump’s rhetoric and is unlikely to suit Washington, head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Contemporary Geopolitics at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Novikov told Izvestia.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Extreme tariff proposals target Russian crude oil trade
US President Donald Trump has endorsed a bill to tighten sanctions against Russia. The proposal envisions imposing restrictive measures on countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, including sharply increased customs duties - up to 500% - on their goods. According to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, experts believe the proposed tariffs are primarily a tool of political pressure and are unlikely to stop Russian oil exports as long as crude continues to be sold at a discount and alternative trade mechanisms remain in place.
Trump earlier said he hopes that tougher sanctions would not ultimately be necessary. It is clear that, in this case, much will depend on progress in the negotiating process on Ukraine - at least according to the US president, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes. The key questions for Russia are whether such tariffs on buyers of its oil could realistically be introduced and how sharply its exports might decline as a result.
According to Daniil Tyun, head of the client relations department at AMCH, the idea of 500% tariffs on purchasers of Russian oil looks more like an instrument of political pressure than a fully implementable economic measure in practice.
The expert noted that as long as Russian oil is sold at a discount, it will find buyers. This includes shipments via the shadow fleet, transshipment in neutral waters, blending of cargoes, and the re-export of petroleum products. These mechanisms are already in place and are likely only to become more sophisticated. Sanctions increase transaction costs, but they do not remove the commodity itself from the market.
According to Nikolay Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Financial Group, the likelihood of increased US pressure on Russia remains high. It is not a given that such extreme tariffs will be applied against countries buying Russian oil, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be used as a pretext to advance US interests, including in the trade sphere.
Kommersant: Global growth set to ease in 2026 as trade fragmentation deepens
The global economy is expected to expand by 2.7% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2025, according to a forecast by experts from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Growth will be constrained by the continued fragmentation of the global economy, rising country-level protectionism, and weak investment activity stemming from heightened global uncertainty, Kommersant writes.
Growth in global trade volumes is also set to slow markedly this year, to 2.2% from 3.8%. Last year’s boost from front-loaded shipments - driven by expectations of impending trade restrictions - has been exhausted, leaving a decline in global trade volumes virtually unavoidable, the newspaper writes. At the same time, higher tariffs will continue to push countries toward reconfiguring their supply chains.
For many countries, 2026 will therefore become a period of adaptation to changing rules in global trade, UNCTAD noted.
Experts believe that the European Union, which has been affected by US tariffs, is now particularly interested in diversifying its exports and imports. It should be noted that the free trade agreement with MERCOSUR (the South American trade bloc) approved by the EU Council for signing on January 9 will primarily allow Europe to expand trade in agricultural goods.
According to the forecast, the US economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, up from 1.9% in 2025, amid the delayed effects of monetary policy easing and adjustment to the consequences of tariffs introduced by the country.
China is also expected to see slower economic growth in 2026: according to UNCTAD’s forecast, the country’s GDP will rise by 4.6% after expanding by 5% in 2025. The reasons include weak domestic demand and a slump in the real estate market.
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