The White House divulged a proposal it had for Moscow on exchanging Russian citizen Viktor Bout for the Americans Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan, because the Kremlin did not provide a "meaningful response" to it, according to CNN. Earlier, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that there were no agreements yet on the exchange. Meanwhile, experts interviewed by Kommersant believe that the conditions put forward by the US are not ideal.
According to media reports, US officials proposed the swap idea back in June, inspired by the success of the April exchange of Konstantin Yaroshenko for Trevor Reed.
Brittney Griner’s defense did not comment on the situation, saying that the team did not take part in the negotiations. At the same time, attorneys interviewed by Kommersant believe that the athlete could be exchanged only after the verdict. Until then Griner remains innocent.
Vladimir Zherebenkov, a lawyer for US citizen Paul Whelan convicted in 2020, told Kommersant that he knows and expects that the US authorities want to exchange him. "But I consider their conditions unfair. I have one explanation: they consider Bout to be a very significant and dangerous figure. However, such negotiations are held in secret, and I think that our diplomats are actively working on it," he said.
Vice President of the Russian branch of the International Committee for the Defense for Human Rights Ivan Melnikov told the newspaper that the conditions put forward by the US are unlikely to accelerate this process. "The one for one exchange, according to my information, would have been virtually resolved and everything could have happened very quickly, but the current situation is a step back," Melnikov said.
He said he hopes that the US will reconsider its position. If not, then Russia can offer the US authorities a two-for-two exchange, according to the expert, about 2,000 Russian citizens are currently held in US prisons.
Izvestia: Chinese, US leaders talk amid rising tensions
On July 28, the leaders of the United States and China held their first telephone conversation in four months. During Joe Biden's presidency, relations between the two superpowers have plunged to new lows not seen in recent decades, Izvestia writes. Nevertheless, according to experts, the very fact that the US and China have left lines of communication open amid the abundance of issues can already be viewed positively, experts told the newspaper.
Taiwan has become a major roadblock in bilateral relations, especially amid Nancy Pelosi’s upcoming visit to the island in August. In response, Beijing has issued six warnings to the US, promising to take strong measures if the congresswoman goes forward with her plans.
Cancelling Pelosi's trip would reinforce accusations of pandering to China, lowering the approval ratings of Biden and the entire Democratic Party. As for China, the country plans to host the 20th Congress of the Communist Party, and prior to this milestone event, Xi Jinping has to maintain a tough stance towards the US, Izvestia writes.
Another discrepancy between the two countries is the situation in Ukraine and China's lack of public disapproval of Russia's military operation. There are also complicated economic issues.
Nevertheless, China and America have common interests, primarily due to their highly interconnected economies, senior expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Alexander Gabuev told Izvestia. "Both sides are interested in being pragmatic as long as possible, albeit gradually moving away," he explained.
Vedomosti: Shell might lose over $4 bln by abandoning Russian projects
Shell, the Dutch-Anglo oil and gas multinational, in its report on July 28 announced that its representatives left the Board of Directors of a parity joint venture (JV) with Gazprom Neft - Salym Petroleum Development N.V, which works on the Salymskoye field in Russia’s Western Siberia region. According to Vedomosti, the company also plans to leave the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
A Shell representative specified to Vedomosti that the company is now working on options for withdrawing from a 50% stake in the joint venture. The cost of a share in Salym could have been nullified by Shell because it was sure that it was impossible to sell this asset or receive dividends on it, Dmitry Kletochkin, a partner at Rustam Kurmaev and Partners, notes.
In addition, the company’s representative confirmed to Vedomosti that Shell intends to give up a 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
Shell's exit from Sakhalin-2 may create difficulties in the future development of the project, senior analyst at Alfa-Bank Nikita Blokhin believes. But with the direct participation of Shell specialists, in 2021 the project underwent a comprehensive upgrade of the entire infrastructure and the transition to a four-year maintenance cycle, which created a significant safety margin for Sakhalin-2 for the next few years, he added.
Shell's total losses from withdrawing from the Russian projects will reach at least $4.2 bln, Managing Partner at Infoline-analytics Mikhail Burmistrov told the newspaper. He noted that the company’s withdrawal from the Salym project will not significantly affect its risks, while the company’s exit from Sakhalin-2 creates risks associated with equipment maintenance.
Kommersant: Russian-Israeli relations undergo stress test
Moscow’s Basmanny District Court has begun to hear the case concerning the Russian Justice Ministry's allegations against the representative office of the Jewish Agency for Israel (Sochnut) in Russia. According to Israeli media, if no compromise is reached, one of the oldest Jewish organizations in Russia may cease operations, affecting bilateral ties. So far, however, the two capitals have attempted to defuse the tension, Kommersant writes.
According to the newspaper, the major claims against the Jewish Agency include incorrectly gathered and stored personal data of Russians. If the organization fails to meet the requirements of Russian law, it may be liquidated.
The situation with Sochnut coincided with the Israeli election campaign ahead of the November legislative elections. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to do everything possible to regain power. In response to the Jewish Agency case, Netanyahu stated that relations between the two countries had deteriorated due to the political elite's carelessness and arrogance. Moscow, for its part, insisted that the Sochnut case lies strictly within the legal field.
"The mutual assurances over the last few days have been critical in decreasing the tension, as well as sending an Israeli delegation, despite doubts about its potential to influence Russia’s decision," according to Meir Ben-Shabbat, former head of the Israeli National Security Council. He believes that the most important thing is to ensure that the heads of state and their advisers have access to a communication mechanism. According to him, the Sokhnut issue is "another milestone in the unfavorable dynamics in Russian-Israeli ties, which emerges simultaneously with the rapprochement between Russia and Iran".
Vedomosti: Russia eyes major investment in railway projects in Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China
Russia may pour $30.8 bln into the development of foreign railway infrastructure projects in Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China until 2030, the Russian Ministry of Transport said in its presentation. A source close to the ministry confirmed the document’s authenticity to Vedomosti. According to experts, this investment bid might prove essential for reorienting Russia's exports.
According to the presentation, the funds would be used to build three new railway checkpoints across Russia's state border with neighboring nations: 369 km of tracks in Russia and 3,000 km of railways in Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and China. Specific projects were not identified, but based on the presentation's map of transportation and logistical corridors, at least seven large-scale development projects are being considered, the newspaper writes.
The existing railway capacities in the Far East do not allow for a complete reorientation of Russian raw material exports to China and other Asia-Pacific countries, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University Vasily Kashin told Vedomosti. He believes that developing the trajectory towards the East is critical in order to counter Europe's rejection of Russia's raw commodities and energy resources. "If we start building now, it will help support our economy in the future," he stressed.
The projects are complex, and it is unlikely that they will be completed quickly, Managing Director of the NRA rating service Sergey Grishunin believes. According to him, a single Zuunbayan-Khangi road in Mongolia can cost $31 bln, making the assistance of Asian partners essential.
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