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Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum 2014

Russia’s Central Bank sees capital outflow at $85-$90 billion in 2014

Initially, the bank forecasted the capital outflow at $20 billion for this year, but in April that the forecast was significantly increased

© ITAR-TASS/Sergei Bobylev

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ST. PETERSBURG, May 23. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) expects the country’s net private capital outflow to amount to $85-90 billion in 2014, Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said Friday at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Initially, the bank forecasted the capital outflow at $20 billion for this year, but Nabiullina said in April that the forecast will be significantly increased.

In April, the capital outflow amounted to $4.6 billion, including swap deals, she said. In January-March, the capital outflow was registered at $63 billion.

CBR also believes that inflation expectations will decline. “We see preconditions for inflation expectations to weaken,” Nabiullina said, attributing high expectations to the growth of inflation and the weakening of the ruble rate. “Now the rate has more or less stabilized, and we expect a gradual decrease in inflation expectations,” she said.

Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach confirmed the ministry’s forecast for a $90 billion capital outflow for this year. “There were around $50 billion (of outflow) in the first quarter. Around $40 billion (of outflow) is expected by the end of the year,” Klepach said.

Klepach also confirmed that Russia will not make borrowings on the foreign markets by the end of this year. “Unfavorable conditions for this have formed. But it does not mean that we will be able to come back to the world market (of borrowings),” he said.

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