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Global economy may be on the brink of recession in 2026 — IMF

According to conclusions for the best case, the world economy will grow by 3.1% and 3.2% in 2026-2027

WASHINGTON, April 14. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund predicts in its report on global economic prospects that the global economy risks this year to be one step away from recession in case the US-Israeli war against Iran expands and protracts.

The fund has drafted three scenarios for further evolution of the global economy with consideration of the conflict in the Middle East. The best-case one is built on assumptions that the war will be limited by duration, intensity and scale, and its adverse economic implications largely disappear by the middle of this year. Two other scenarios stipulate that the conflict will last longer or expands in scale. The worst-case projects global GDP growth at a level of just about 2%. At the same time, global growth rates below 2% correspond to the definition of "global recession" adopted in the IMF.

According to conclusions for the best case, the world economy will grow by 3.1% and 3.2% in 2026-2027. This is in any case lower than global GDP growth at the level of about 3.4% registered in 2024-2025. The forecast for the current year was revised downward by 0.2 percentage point.

The less optimistic scenario anticipates that global GDP will contract by 0.8 percentage point this year and grow by 0.2 percentage point next year. If developments follow this path, the global economy will grow by 2.5% and 3% in 2026-2027.

Consequences for the worst case are the most material and will last longer, IMF experts said. They believe global GDP will contract in such course of developments by 1.3 percentage points in 2026.

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