MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. Gas prices in Europe could decline to $430-460 per 1,000 cubic meters if negotiations between the US and Iran are successful, though the market is unlikely to return to normal in the coming months, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman told TASS.
Gas prices in Europe dropped by 18% at the opening of trading on Wednesday to $518 per 1,000 cubic meters following news of a two-week mutual ceasefire between the US and Iran.
"In our view, a full return to normal is unlikely in the coming months even if negotiations between the US and Iran succeed. Restarting Qatar’s LNG production facilities will take at least a couple of weeks. At the same time, 17% of Qatar’s LNG production capacity requires repairs," he said.
The expert noted that prices are being supported by low gas storage levels in Europe, currently below 29%. Among the factors limiting price growth, he cited increased LNG production in the US, as well as a partial decline in demand in Asia-Pacific countries as some consumers switch to coal due to gas shortages.
"Against this backdrop, we believe that if the talks are successful, gas prices in the EU may fall to $430-460 per 1,000 cubic meters. At the same time, it is important to stress that it is impossible to predict the outcome of negotiations involving [US President Donald] Trump," Kaufman added.
On April 7, US President Donald Trump announced a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran. The decision was made in light of a proposal by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and is "subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz", the US leader said. Sharif invited Iranian and US delegations to talks in Islamabad on April 10 to reach a final agreement. According to CNN, the US delegation will include Vice President J.D. Vance, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.