MOSCOW, May 16. /TASS/. The likelihood of a full trade embargo against Russia remains low, as steep tariffs would have significant repercussions for the EU itself, ranging from raw material and energy shortages to rising inflation and social unrest, Nikolay Gaponenko, Associate professor at the Department of the Institute of Law and National Security of the Presidential Academy, said.
Earlier, Politico reported that the European Union is considering large duties and even a full-scale trade embargo against Russia. The new harsh measures will be discussed on Friday at a meeting of the European Political Community in Albania, which will also be attended by the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
"The news about the possible introduction by the European Union of large duties and even a full-fledged trade embargo against Russia raises questions about the feasibility of such an initiative and its potential consequences. The source of the information is the reputable Politico publication, but so far we are talking only about plans and preliminary discussions, not specific measures. The very fact that such a measure is being considered indicates a high degree of readiness on the part of the West to increase pressure on Russia. The proposed rate of 500%, announced by Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican from South Carolina, on the Russian list of terrorists and extremists -TASS), is an extremely aggressive measure that could lead to a full stop to economic activity between the parties. However, the probability of implementing this initiative remains low," Gaponenko, who has a PhD in Economics, told TASS.
According to him, high tariffs and a full trade embargo would harm both sides.
"For the European Union, a complete refusal to import Russian goods will entail serious problems, ranging from shortages of raw materials and energy to rising inflation and social instability. Despite the political motives, the economic aspect will remain a key factor in deterring the European authorities from going down this perilous path," said Gaponenko.
He explained that the imposition of such high duties depends on many factors: the position of individual EU member states, economic viability and political pressure from the outside. "Although such drastic measures are theoretically possible, especially given the political situation surrounding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, practical implementation faces a number of obstacles. European countries depend on Russian gas and oil, and the imposition of a full embargo will create serious economic problems within the union," the expert said.
According to him, the likelihood of taking the step depends on "the general political will of the EU leaders and the level of support for the idea among the key players. At this stage, the initiative looks more like a proposal for discussion than a ready-made solution. Yes, formally, the European Union has the right to impose any trade restrictions, including high duties and embargoes. But in practice, such a serious trade restriction will lead to serious fallout for the European economy," Gaponenko said.
Main obstacles and repercussions
The expert named the obstacles that could potentially hinder the adoption of the decision: the need to replace energy supplies, losses for the European industry dependent on Russian goods, the impact on consumer goods and fuel prices. "This is why decision-making requires a thorough analysis of the possible consequences and a compromise between the participating countries," he said.
According to him, the consequences of a full trade embargo against Russia will be serious and many-faceted.
"The economic consequences are an increase in prices for energy and other goods, which will trigger inflation and undermine people’s purchasing power, increased dependence on alternative energy suppliers, which will require significant investment and infrastructure, and a reduction in trade volumes, hurting the economies of both sides. The political consequences are higher tensions between Russia and Europe, and the possibility of strengthening the positions of third-party resource suppliers such as the United States, Qatar, and Norway. The social consequences include stronger discontent among Europeans over the rising cost of living, the risk of social unrest and political crises," the expert listed.