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Bank of Russia plans to return key rate to neutral range of 5-6%

According to the statement, as inflationary pressure eases, the Bank of Russia will reduce the key rate

MOSCOW, August 12. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia will reduce the key rate, bringing it back to a long-term neutral range of 5-6% per annum, according to Draft Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2023.

"According to the estimates of the Bank of Russia, a gradual decline in inflation towards the target will require maintaining the key rate within the range of 6.5-8.5% per annum on average in 2023 and 6-7% per annum on average in 2024," the regulator said.

According to the statement, as inflationary pressure eases, the Bank of Russia will reduce the key rate, bringing it back to a long-term neutral range of 5-6% per annum.

The Bank of Russia noted that the annual inflation forecast for the end of 2022 has been reduced to 12-15%. Annual inflation in 2023 will still be above the target, reflecting the ongoing overall adjustment to the new structure. Annual inflation will return to 4% in 2024 and remain at the target level in the future.

The Bank of Russia will also consider budget policy measures in its key rate decision-making, as well as when drafting its macroeconomic forecast. "The new fiscal rule's principles are being developed now. The scale of its countercyclical influence on the economy will depend on the fiscal rule’s configuration. The Bank of Russia will consider budget policy measures in drafting the macroeconomic forecast and taking decisions on the key rate," according to the document released on Friday.

Considering the decision taken by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on July 22, the average annual key rate will total 10.5-10.8% per annum this year. If the situation unfolds under the regulator’s base case scenario the key rate will stand at 6.5-8.5% in 2023, 6-7% in 2024, and 5-6% in 2025.

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