MOSCOW, September 29. /TASS/. European countries are shifting to the position of outsider in a polycentric world, losing their traditional role as flagships of the liberal world order. The global South, focused on maximizing its opportunities, is increasingly becoming a leader, according to a new report from the Valdai International Discussion Club.
The club’s experts have prepared a comprehensive analytical review of the latest transformations in the world order, entitled Dr. Chaos or: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Disorder.
According to the authors, the global South, which is "firmly focused on securing maximum opportunities for development," leads the current global structure. "It is followed by China, Russia, and the United States, which also prioritize domestic prosperity as a decisive factor, yet are further compelled by the additional imperative of maintaining their great-power status. Bringing up the rear is Europe, which has devolved from the flagship of the liberal world order into an outlier in this new polycentric world," Valdai analysts argue.
The Trump case and its potential
Discussing the prospects for radical change in the world, experts noted the so-called Donald Trump case.
"Today, the White House professes radicalism, albeit with a slight liberal aftertaste. This way, it is the opposite of the radical behavior by Trump’s predecessors with their post-Cold War radical globalist agenda. Still, this does not amount to an international effort to revise the social and political pillars of this system. What we see is an attempt to address the increasingly flagrant distortions resulting from the fact that the United States greatly enhanced its international standing in the 1990s when there was no one to counter these aspirations and maintain balance," the analysts emphasize.
The authors acknowledge that "Trump’s intellectual anti-globalist zeal" is appealing to many in different countries after decades of the dogmatic imposition of liberal schemes, which have not only degenerated into demagogy but have also become a threat." They believe, though, that this sympathy is largely emotional. The global hegemon, as represented by the United States, actually strives "to dismantle the elements of order (institutions) that allowed other countries to somewhat compensate for the force of its hegemony."
"Even if we view Trump as a revolutionary determined to break the global order apart, replacing it with an order offering greater justice and better representation is not on his agenda. Trump’s foreign policy is designed to do everything to enable the United States to further increase its economic might and use all the available resources around the world for domestic development," the experts concluded. "What the United States and most of its partners and opponents share in common is their focus on momentary considerations. This has become a new normal."
Nuclear factor for stability
Analyzing the nature of current shifts in a variety of areas, the authors came to the conclusion that "no power in today’s world is willing or has the ability to turn everything upside down."
"Nuclear weapons play a stabilizing role, of course, by making a direct armed confrontation between nuclear powers pointless. In fact, the principle of guaranteed mutual destruction still largely defines the relations between nuclear powers and their strategy towards one another," analysts explain. "Overall, in a post-globalized world, the international environment tends to absorb and cushion state action which could have caused a major crisis in the past."
According to experts, "this is attributable to greater connectivity in communications, technological competition, and the fact that everyone owes something to others these days, coupled with the fact that between living better lives and accomplishing heroic feats, people tend to opt for the former."
"There are no countries capable of putting forward a revolutionary agenda, primarily in terms of domestic policy, which would require truly decisive action. Not a single power is willing to radically change its own society by transitioning to a novel social and economic framework. Therefore, making radical changes on the international stage becomes irrelevant too," experts state. "Considering how complex present-day societies have become, it is now impossible to predict the way radical changes in domestic and international politics can affect the economy and governance in general. Meanwhile, every state prioritizes domestic stability and being able to ensure that it can develop in safety, overriding any external ambitions.".