WASHINGTON, July 15. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump’s announcement about new arms deliveries to the Kiev government and readiness to take economic measures against Russai, will not facilitate the Ukrainian conflict settlement and, on top of that, will harm Washington’s interests, said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.
In an opinion piece, published by Responsible Statecraft, she analyzed the US leader’s plans to impose tariffs on Russia and its trade partners if Washington and Moscow fail to reach agreements on Ukraine within the next 50 days. In her opinion, "the threat is unlikely to change [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s calculus, however, or bring the conflict to a near-term conclusion."
"Instead, Trump’s deadline is likely to make his own life more difficult, limiting his future flexibility, putting the settlement he craves farther out of reach, and forcing him to take steps that harm rather than advance US interests," she added.
In Kavanagh’s opinion, Trump’s declared intention to impose "secondary tariffs" on Russia and its trade partners "was not well-explained." The expert says that it was unclear whether the tariffs will be applicable to Russian trade with the United States or "secondary sanctions" on Russia’s trading partners, or some combination of the two.
"If Trump is indeed talking about tariffs on Russian trade with the United States, then his threat is an empty one. The United States imported only about $3 billion in goods from Russia in 2024, meaning that US tariffs will impose little, if any, new costs on Moscow," the US expert said.
In her words, "the potential consequences for Russia are higher" if Trump sanctions Russia’s trade partners, such as China, India and countries of the European Union. However, this "would also create political and economic complications for Washington," because it would hamper trade agreements with the above-mentioned countries.
Kavanagh believes that "there is no guarantee that even secondary sanctions would cut off Russian revenues," because Moscow has become skilled at circumventing them.
"Most importantly, <…> the Russian economy have shown tremendous resilience to the economic weapons that the United States and its allies have unleashed so far, and there is no reason to expect this time to be different," she added.
US arms supplies won’t help Kiev
"If Trump’s ability to force Putin to the table using economic sticks is limited, then his military leverage is even smaller. Putin has a clear advantage on the battlefield, and the new aid arrangement in which Europe will buy US weapons to send to Ukraine is unlikely to change this," she said. "What weapons Europe can send quickly — purchased from the United States or taken from their own stocks – will be small in number and limited in type."
In her view, "neither the United States nor Europe have deep reserves of munitions or other kinds of weapons to provide."
The expert concluded that Trump’s threats are unlikely to facilitate peace and "may make near-term resolution less likely," because they are "placing at risk newly opened channels of communication between the United States and Russia."
"The ultimatum also compromises Trump’s effectiveness as a mediator and constrains the flexibility he will need to successfully broker a deal between Russia and Ukraine," Kavanagh said.