MOSCOW, January 16. /TASS/. Several factors, including Israel's internal political dynamics, may undermine the agreement with Hamas on the release of hostages held in Gaza and the establishment of a ceasefire in the enclave, Vladimir Fitin, an expert on Eastern and Asian affairs and advisor to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, told TASS.
"It is quite difficult to predict how long it will last. Although it was agreed to gradually resolve the issue of hostages, who will be sent back to Israel, one must consider the composition of the Israeli government, which includes far-right factions strongly opposing ending the conflict, ongoing since October 7, 2023, without achieving the complete eradication of Hamas, a decisive Israeli victory, and the formation of a government entirely disconnected from this group," Fitin stated.
He highlighted several factors that "might derail this agreement." The analyst elaborated that this primarily involves Israel’s internal political situation, which remains deeply divided, as the coalition government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces strong influence from radical right-wing elements.
"This primarily pertains to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who argue that this agreement fails to align with Israel's strategic objective of fully dismantling Hamas in Gaza," Fitin pointed out. "If they resign, the government could collapse, prompting Israel to face the prospect of early elections once again, potentially disrupting the deal."
However, the analyst stressed that if the incoming US administration firmly supports the deal, "the enormous influence they [the Americans] wield over Israel could ensure its continuation in some form."
"There is also a risk of provocations by extreme militants in Gaza. If such incidents occur—whether through escalation or armed confrontation—they could also threaten the agreement’s viability. Nonetheless, there is hope that it will hold," he added.
Fitin observed that freezing the conflict is a shared objective of both the outgoing US administration under Joe Biden and the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, both of whom pushed for the deal’s finalization before the inauguration.
The expert underscored that Hamas is highly invested in the deal, as Israel is "progressively weakening its military capabilities."
"Hamas urgently needs a pause," he remarked.
Israel-Hamas agreement
Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani announced on January 15 that through mediation efforts by Doha, Cairo, and Washington, Israel and Hamas agreed on the release of hostages held in Gaza and a ceasefire. The agreement will take effect on Sunday, January 19.
During the initial 42-day phase, Hamas will release 33 Israeli military and civilian female hostages, as well as wounded civilians, children, and the elderly, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.
Israel will withdraw its forces at least 700 meters away from the Gaza border, the Al Jazeera TV channel reported, citing a source. In the first phase of the deal, both parties plan to negotiate the terms of subsequent phases, including the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.