MOSCOW, April 9. /TASS/. Experts evaluate prospects for the Iran-US ceasefire being long-term; Israel resumes large-scale attacks on Lebanon; and the Iran truce may facilitate a resumption of Ukraine talks. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Will US-Iran truce prove to be durable, long-term
Tehran and Washington view the ceasefire they have reached differently. US President Donald Trump and his entourage have claimed victory over Iran. Tehran, in turn, has declared victory over the United States. Consequently, the parties’ potential terms for resolving the conflict are largely contradictory, Vedomosti notes.
The two-week ceasefire can potentially pave the way for an indefinite truce, said Ilya Vaskin, junior researcher with the Center for the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia Studies at the Higher School of Economics. On the one hand, the Trump administration has already unleashed wars right in the middle of talks. On the other hand, this particular war could be too much of a shock for Trump, forcing him to exercise caution with regard to Iran, the expert added. Meanwhile, the ceasefire will make it possible for Iran to save its face and portray itself as the winner, Vaskin pointed out.
"If Iran stands its ground and continues to develop, it is going to turn into an influential regional power that everyone will have to reckon with. It remains to be seen how its policies change and what leaders emerge in the country," Russia in Global Affairs Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov emphasized.
The ceasefire deal demonstrates that the United States has failed to achieve its goals in the conflict in Iran, military expert Ivan Konovalov believes. Those were not military objectives but political and economic goals that were supposed to be accomplished by military means. However, it has become clear that neither the US nor Israel have sufficient military resources to achieve those goals. This is why it’s even possible to say that Iran has gained a military victory by simply withstanding attacks by the world’s strongest power and its main regional ally, Konovalov stressed.
Andrey Baklanov, deputy chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and Higher School of Economics professor, told Izvestia that despite a high level of violence, such conflicts usually end in talks. However, according to him, the current situation is different because Iran maintains a tougher stance. The expert points out that Tehran is not interested in a short-term pause but in a lasting, full-fledged agreement that would rule out further cycles of escalation.
Media: Israel resumes large-scale attack on Lebanon
Lebanon has been left out of the ceasefire deal reached by Iran and the US and supported by Israel. That said, the signs are growing that the Jewish state plans to establish long-term control over southern Lebanon, creating a buffer zone there the way it did in the Gaza Strip, Izvestia writes.
Kamran Gasanov, an expert with the Financial University under the Russian Government, believes that things will depend on how much Iran is weakened in the current crisis. If talks between Washington and Tehran turn out to be a failure, Israel will seize the moment to deal the hardest possible blow to the Hezbollah movement. "In such a situation, Israel may expand its ground operation, while Lebanon would risk turning into a second Gaza Strip for Israel, that is, a territory Tel Aviv would seek to keep under constant military control, citing the need to protect the country’s northern areas," the analyst said.
However, there is a downside to this scenario: the Israel Defense Forces risk getting caught up in protracted fighting in densely-populated southern Lebanon, as has already been the case in Gaza.
Still, the expert notes that this scenario is not inevitable. International pressure is a factor that needs to be taken into account. If Washington decides that Israel's continued presence prevents its own agreements with Iran or undermines stability in the region, the White House may well insist on the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon.
Despite the ceasefire, Israel is trying to reserve the right to act independently in Lebanon, Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semyonov told Vedomosti. In the Middle East expert’s view, this could be the consolation prize for the Israelis because while Washington and Tehran are each capable of declaring victory, the Israeli leadership cannot do the same. "Israel has clearly failed to achieve its goals in the war and defeat the Islamic Republic, which is why it will try to at least gain a foothold in southern Lebanon," the expert explained.
Izvestia: Iran ceasefire may facilitate resumption of Ukraine talks
Moscow will not delay the resumption of trilateral negotiations on Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. Experts believe that the odds have increased that Russia, the US and Ukraine will resume talks. However, Europe, Kiev and American warmongers can be expected to resist the process.
"An easing of tensions in the Middle East is really opening a limited window of opportunities for a return to diplomatic efforts regarding Ukraine, but there is no direct cause-and-effect relationship here. Russia has openly said that the two issues are connected only indirectly," said Nikolay Novik, deputy center director of the Higher School of Economics’ Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy.
Valdai International Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov believes that if the Middle East ceasefire stands, the next round of trilateral talks on Ukraine can take place as early as in May.
"Donald Trump may return his attention to the Ukraine conflict, and if the negotiators that are supposed to travel to Islamabad in the coming days achieve success there, they will be able to once again focus on the Russia-Ukraine issue. However, it will only be possible if the upcoming talks with Tehran are successful and the parties don’t fall out because it’s clear that Washington cannot fully accept the ten-point terms that Iran has presented to the United States," the analyst elaborated.
Meanwhile, what is hindering progress in talks is the US bipartisan consensus on support for Ukraine. The Trump administration is alone in its assessment of Kiev’s actions, Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, noted.
Many European countries also oppose a peace agreement that would take Russia’s interests into account. Kiev, in turn, is putting up resistance, with Vladimir Zelensky rejecting the demand for Ukrainian troop withdrawal from Donbass.
"Trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine talks came to a standstill in late February not so much because of rising tensions in the Middle East but because of Ukraine's unwillingness to make territorial concessions and pull troops from Donbass," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics, explained.
RBC: What Iran-US ceasefire means for oil industry
A ceasefire in the Iran-US conflict has made oil and gas prices drop as market players expect the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened to tanker traffic. However, experts interviewed by RBC believe that market shortages will persist and prices will remain high.
"We think oil prices are highly unlikely to go back to the pre-conflict levels of $60 per barrel because the stocks that ran low during the conflict need to be replenished and key consumers may want to strengthen their safety nets amid increased supply risks. This is going to create additional demand," Anna Butenko, senior analyst at the Pervaya asset management company, pointed out.
Since infrastructure in many Middle Eastern countries has been damaged, oil supplies should not be expected to grow rapidly, Freedom Finance leading analyst Natalya Milchakova said.
If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz fully recover, oil prices will gradually return to the levels recorded at the start of the conflict, that is, about $75 per barrel, Yelena Kozhukhova, an analyst with the Veles investment company, noted. However, it could take months for supplies from the region to fully recover, so oil prices will remain high at about $100 per barrel for at least several weeks, Kozhukova said. Moreover, if geopolitical tensions rise again, prices could go back above $100 per barrel.
"Any new round of tensions will push oil and gas prices up, which will support Russia's oil and gas sector," Natalya Malykh, head of stock analytics at Finam, observed.
Milchakova does not expect the price of Russia’s Urals oil blend to fall to the January level because China is highly likely to turn to Russia rather than to the US to replace Middle Eastern supplies. India will do the same because temporary shortages will persist on the global market. That said, Russian oil will remain in high demand, the analyst concluded.
Izvestia: Global powers compete for influence on EU energy market
A large-scale restructuring process is underway on the global energy market. Apart from creating global energy shortages, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz also sparked competition among suppliers for Europe, one of the world’s main energy importers, Izvestia writes.
The United States is considered to be one of the key players on the European market as America supplies EU countries not only with energy but also with military goods. Still, the Americans are technically unable to fully meet Europe’s needs for oil products and influence the European market that way, American studies expert Malek Dudakov noted.
After Ukraine transit was halted, the TurkStream pipeline remained the only route for Russian pipeline oil supplies to Europe. Turkey is capable of becoming one of the key energy centers in Europe, but not a monopolist leader of the market. It can integrate into the European energy security system as a mediator and a transit hub, but the country would only be able to retain its influence if the EU sees it as a diversification platform rather than a workaround for Russian supplies, Middle East expert Dmitry Bridzhe pointed out.
Experts believe that there is a stronger player behind Ankara’s back, and that is London. The current crisis between the EU and the US and the war in Iran make it possible for London to partially take control of Europe. However, the United Kingdom is unable to act as a monopolist and can only work to increase its influence, international affairs observer Andrey Kuzmak believes.
Meanwhile, anyone trying to offer an alternative to the US in this political game automatically becomes a target. The Americans are unlikely to allow Turkey, the UK or any other country to challenge their influence on the EU. However, if the US starts reducing energy production, control will probably be redistributed between several leading countries or handed over to a single strong player.
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