MOSCOW, October 20. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin before meeting Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky in a push for peace, and NATO is set to expand military bases in Norway. Meanwhile, Israel and Hamas found themselves on the verge of war again following the Rafah incident. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Vedomosti: Trump calls Putin before meeting Zelensky as he still seeks Ukraine peace
Russia and Ukraine could halt battles along the current frontline and start talks on resolving the conflict, US President Donald Trump suggested in his conversations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, The Wall Street Journal reported on October 18. Earlier, the US leader urged both sides on his Truth Social platform on October 17 to stop the hostilities immediately: "They should stop where they are."
In addition, despite rumors in the US media about Trump’s readiness to make a final announcement about sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine ahead of the phone call with Putin, the US president hinted he was not yet ready for that. At a meeting with Zelensky in the White House, Trump said he expected that the conflict would be resolved without these missiles and that the United States needed the weapons itself.
The agreements reached in Alaska on August 15 remain valid ahead of a second Russia-US summit, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. Nor has the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine been removed from the agenda, the expert added. "Either leaving Ukraine at the mercy of Europe or leaving it face-to-face with Russia is fraught with serious consequences for Trump, including declining ratings domestically," he emphasized. Koshkin suggested that the Trump team is trying to find a formula that would suit both Moscow and Kiev. Hence, Trump’s attempts to hold another one-on-one with Putin to personally persuade him to meet with Zelensky. Besides, he noted, Trump still hopes for wide media coverage of his diplomatic efforts. "Bringing Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table in Trump’s presence could attract major media attention," Koshkin explained.
Trump plans to build communication with Moscow around his proposal to freeze the conflict along the current frontline, said expert at the Russian International Affairs Council Alexey Naumov. According to him, Trump will see what concessions Russia could seek from Ukraine. "He will increase pressure on Ukraine as Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield. The fact that he called Putin before meeting Zelensky shows that the latter remains a secondary but important figure for the peace process," Naumov said.
Izvestia: Why NATO is setting up new military bases in Norway
Military infrastructure for deploying NATO troops continues to expand in northern Norway, the Russian embassy in Oslo told Izvestia. In 2026, a training center will open in Troms county, and by 2029 a maintenance facility for the Norwegian and German navies will begin operations at the Haakonsvern Naval Base. De-facto the United States is also establishing its own military presence in the Nordic kingdom as it constructs a satellite station there. Analysts warn that the growing NATO activity in the Arctic could heighten the risk of unintended military escalation, while the absence of communication channels worsens the situation. In response, Russia is upgrading its military infrastructure and reinforcing the Northern Fleet.
The United States remains the key guarantor of security and strategic partner for Norway, as Washington possesses the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons among Western countries. Moreover, the two states have built close relations in defense and security. In recent years, Oslo has been forging similar ties with other NATO members, Nikita Lipunov, Junior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University, told Izvestia. "At the operational level, Norway maintains close cooperation with Sweden and Denmark, among other countries. Norway is also enhancing security cooperation with Britain and Germany, while France has recently begun to develop ties with the kingdom in this area," the expert said.
Intensified military preparations against our country and NATO’s provocative actions on the so-called northern flanks threaten Russia’s national security, the Russian embassy in Oslo told the newspaper.
Political analyst Denis Denisov pointed out that Norway is one of the most influential players in the Arctic region, so it is not surprising that the North Atlantic Alliance uses the country as a key platform for confrontation with Russia there. "The expansion of military activity and NATO’s presence in the Arctic increase the risk of unintended escalation of tensions, which have been rising in the region in recent years. The situation is further worsened by the loss of mutual trust and the lack of continuous contact, especially between the militaries," Lipunov noted.
The expert reminded that Russia has been restoring and modernizing its military infrastructure in the Arctic for years. Russia must continue to strengthen its forces in the region to prevent potential security threats. By 2027, the Russian Defense Ministry intends to significantly expand the zone of continuous radar coverage in the Arctic, and it is also upgrading its Northern Fleet. Therefore, the situation in the polar latitudes remains stable and manageable.
Izvestia: Hamas, Israel on the brink of war again
Israel and Hamas have found themselves on the verge of resuming hostilities, this time after Israeli forces were attacked in Rafah. While the radical Palestinian movement has denied its involvement in the incident, Israel continues to demand accountability. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that even though the incident undermines the Gaza settlement process, the peacekeeping momentum in the region has not been completely exhausted.
According to information released by the IDF, the incident took place on October 17 when a group of fighters opened fire on Israeli engineering troops. The Israelis described the attack as a gross violation of agreements and launched a counterattack a day later, killing 11 civilians, including eight children. No Hamas casualties have been reported.
Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev highlights the symbolic significance of Rafah, with the surrounding area remaining a sensitive zone since October 7, 2023. "Firstly, a huge number of people seeking to flee Palestine passed through it, and secondly, the adjacent area concerns the interests of Egypt, which has been neither pro-Palestinian nor pro-Israeli in its stance on the conflict," the analyst told Izvestia in an interview. The expert also said the armed clash disrupted the reopening of the Rafah crossing.
The latest escalation in Gaza revived Israeli hawks, who have been looking for a pretext to renew their campaign against Hamas. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for one, asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resume a large-scale offensive. Netanyahu, too, toughened his rhetoric as he ordered "firm action" against terrorist facilities following the Rafah incident, which may pave the way for new targeted strikes on the exclave.
Netanyahu has reasons to raise the stakes and, more importantly, operational capabilities to do so, research fellow at the Department of Foreign Policy Studies of the Institute for the US and Canadian Studies Alexey Yurk told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, nothing has diminished the strong interest of regional and external actors, including in Europe, to assist in implementing the ceasefire agreement, so they will try to either hush up the Rafah incident or leave it without consequences, Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia. According to him, Hamas views the ceasefire deal as an agreement to pause hostilities for several years in order to restore its positions and rebuild strengths and resources lost in the two-year war. Therefore, the movement, too, would like the deal to be implemented at least partially, he added.
Kommersant: Cyprus, other EU countries introduce criminal liability for breaching anti-Russian sanctions
European nations have been gradually introducing criminal liability for circumventing sanctions on Russia into their domestic legislation. Cyprus is among those that have done so, albeit not immediately. Supplying funding or economic resources to sanctioned persons is now considered a crime in this country. Russians with Cypriot passports holding assets in sanctioned banks or working for companies on the EU’s blacklist, as well as offering services, including consulting, to businesses with Russian participation, can be deemed criminally liable.
The five-month deadline for EU members to implement laws on criminal liability for violating anti-Russian sanctions as part of Directive 2024/1226 of the European Parliament and the Council of the EU ends on October 20. The directive outlined a framework for defining such crimes and the range of penalties, but its provisions cannot be directly applied against citizens until transposed into national law, Andrey Ryabinin, a partner at Delcredere, told Kommersant.
According to Yelena Solovyeva, a tax and legal partner at Business Solutions and Technologies Group, businesses linked to Russian individuals that remain in Cyprus may face rising operational costs and greater challenges in conducting business. Meanwhile, the law may be interpreted broadly, with the provision of legal or consulting services potentially falling under the definition of "provision of resources," which could trigger a further outflow of Russian capital, including through the liquidation or relocation of companies, she cautioned.
Kommersant: Increase in coal exports reported in Russia’s southern ports in September
Last month, Russian seaborne coal exports fell by 4% month-on-month to 15.7 million metric tons, the PBC Commodity Index has calculated, while they saw a 9% rise to 1.6 million metric tons in southern ports only.
The increase in coal shipments through southern ports may have occurred amid higher sales to Turkey, which recorded stronger industrial activity in the second half of the year, head of securities market analysis at Alfa-Bank Boris Krasnozhenov told Kommersant. In addition, the transit of Kazakh coal to European markets affected shipments via southern ports, said Maria Nikitina, an expert at the Stolypin Institute of Growth Economics.
India and Turkey are the key markets for Russian coal exports through southern ports, Kirill Lysenko, a sovereign and regional rating analyst at Expert RA, remarked. According to him, Russian coal has maintained strong positions in the Turkish market thanks to close logistics and flexible supply terms.
However, there is currently no stable demand in the Middle East, Lysenko continued, and periods of dry weather and high gas prices have traditionally boosted imports in North Africa, primarily in Morocco, but demand there has been volatile. Nariman Taketayev, director for corporate ratings at NKR agency, added that the potential for a significant expansion of exports is generally limited by the risks of secondary sanctions against buyers, difficulties with financial settlements, and logistics.
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