MOSCOW, February 5. /TASS/. Key mineral deposits under Russian control attract US attention; Beijing responds to Washington’s tariffs but leaves the door for dialogue open; and the US remains quiet on the Iran nuclear deal. These stories have topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Key mineral deposits under Russian control draw US attention
After US President Donald Trump revealed plans to provide military assistance to Kiev in exchange for rare earth elements, the Ukrainian presidential office emphasized that Vladimir Zelensky’s so-called "victory plan" already included that initiative. Meanwhile, Ukrainian media outlets highlight that key lithium deposits, in particular, are located in areas currently under Russian control. However, this does not imply that the US president is ready to engage in conflict over resources with Russia; more likely, he aims to set issues for future talks, said experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The total value of Ukraine’s mineral resources was estimated at $15 trillion in 2023, according to some analyses. However, over 70% of those deposits are in the Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, and Lugansk regions. The Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republic became part of Russia in the fall of 2022 based on the results of referendums. Recently, Russian forces advanced toward the border with the Dnepropetrovsk Region.
There are other regions where rare earth elements are available, namely Greenland, Andrey Sidorov, head of the Department of World Politics at Moscow State University, noted. This is unlikely to be a sufficient reason for Trump to get involved in the situation in Ukraine, as he is currently focused on ending the conflict so that it does not turn into a repeat of Afghanistan for Washington. For the US president, the issue of rare earth elements and Ukraine in general is part of a broader strategy. It includes both resolving the current conflict with Russia and redefining relations between the two leading nuclear powers, which is crucial for the entire world, Sidorov explained.
According to him, the Trump administration is still in the process of formation and has yet to determine its approach to the Ukraine issue. That said, administration officials continue to set the stage for future negotiations. Notably, it seems that Washington does not quite understand—or is unwilling to understand—that Moscow has its own national interests, as was clearly stated by the Russian president in December 2021 and June 2024.
The White House is cautiously probing the diplomatic waters, particularly by making strong statements. The analyst does not rule out that the probing will continue during US special envoy Keith Kellogg’s upcoming trip to Ukraine and Europe in mid-February.
Media: Beijing responds to Washington’s tariffs but keeps door open for talks
Beijing enacted a package of retaliatory trade measures against Washington almost immediately after US President Donald Trump’s additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods took effect. China’s tariffs are expected to enter into force on February 10 but before that, Trump will hold a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the White House said, which will probably lead to a truce in the trade war, Vedomosti writes.
The market anticipated a war of tariffs to break out, but the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports are currently seen as a relatively mild scenario, said Boris Krasnozhyonov, head of securities market analysis at Alfa-Bank. China’s move to impose a 15% tariff on US coal imports may boost demand for Russian coking coal, the expert noted. The question remains as to what extent the war of tariffs may escalate, he added.
The US is more likely to bear the brunt of the new round of the trade war than China, Freedom Finance leading analyst Natalya Milchakova told Izvestia. China has a dominant position in the production of components and commodities for electric vehicles, smartphones, and solar power plants. The US economy will also experience setbacks from the retaliatory measures that will raise the price of imported goods, Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, believes. Meanwhile, China could halt LNG imports from the US, increasing supplies from Russia, so Moscow would only gain from this shift, Milchakova emphasized.
"The global economy’s model, which has actually been based on the dominance of the US dollar since the mid-20th century, was bound to change sooner or later, and this is already happening. Globalization is most likely to be supplanted by regionalization in the long term, with global trade and investment activity centering around several economic and financial hubs," Milchakova explained.
Economic fragmentation has already begun. And although Belenkaya says that global trade is unlikely to be divided into two poles immediately, the process will accelerate if the trade war intensifies.
Izvestia: US dismisses Iran nuclear deal
Participants in the Iran nuclear deal are waiting for the US administration to clarify its position on the issue. Washington has not yet sent any signals about a possible revival of the agreement, Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov told Izvestia. Earlier, the US administration said it planned to reinstate the policy of maximum pressure on Tehran.
Meanwhile, Geneva has been hosting talks between Iran and the European trio (France, the UK, and Germany) since November 2024. The third round of negotiations took place in January, with the parties agreeing that the nuclear deal talks need to be reopened.
Iran’s leadership has undergone significant changes since President Ibrahim Raisi perished in a helicopter crash in May 2024. Masoud Pezeshkian, who is seen as a centrist politician, won the country’s snap election. In December 2024, Javad Zarif, Iran’s vice president and one of the key negotiators on the nuclear deal, stated that Tehran was open to dialogue with the Trump administration.
During his first term in office, Donald Trump pursued a hardline policy towards Iran, seeking to ensure the country’s complete diplomatic isolation. If Tehran declines Washington’s terms, such a policy may persist. However, the United States will act indirectly on the Iran issue. In particular, Washington could sabotage dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia by stirring tensions in the Persian Gulf, through various acts of military provocation and other means, Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told the newspaper.
If the parties compromise and reach an agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program, the Islamic Republic’s economy may experience rapid growth, as it did after UN sanctions on the country were lifted in 2015. Still, the US, Israel, and the Arab monarchies oppose a potential rise in Tehran’s regional influence, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Iran Radzhab Safarov noted.
This is why Western countries and Arab nations are interested in keeping low-intensity sanctions on Iran, limiting its development. The key participants in talks will try to preserve the current balance, especially in light of the recent upheavals the region has seen, including the conflicts in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and a government transition in Syria.
Vedomosti: Syria’s new leader seeks to secure support from Turkey, Saudi Arabia
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (classified as a terrorist organization and outlawed in Russia and Turkey) who became Syria’s interim president on January 29, wrapped up his first foreign trip in Ankara on February 4. Before Turkey, he visited Saudi Arabia, Vedomosti notes.
While in Ankara, al-Sharaa met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to media reports, the parties could have discussed a defense agreement that would allow the establishment of Turkish bases in Syria.
Turkey gained the most from Bashar Assad’s removal and is clearly a strategic ally for the new Syrian authorities, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out. And it’s crucial for the new leaders in Damascus to win over Turkey’s support. As for the economy, Ankara will hardly provide Syria with direct aid; more likely, Turkish construction companies will be granted preferential rights in terms of the country’s reconstruction. Talks on Turkish bases are in line with the logic of Ankara’s actions, while this is also a way for Syria to obtain diplomatic and military assistance from Turkey, Bocharov explained.
According to Nikolay Sukhov, senior researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, in theory, al-Sharaa and Erdogan could have discussed a possible offensive against the Kurds. However, the Syrian leader also could have tried to explain why he would not do that. "His visit to Riyadh could have served to justify a hypothetical rejection of such a scenario, with Saudi Arabia seen as a channel for US policy in the region," the Middle East expert maintained.
The primary goal of al-Sharaa’s trip was to advance plans for Syria’s reconstruction, Bocharov noted. Saudi Arabia is the leading power in the Arab and Islamic world and a key member of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, both crucial for the recognition of Syria’s new authorities, Sukhov stressed. Notably, it’s not right to consider Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a solely pro-Turkish group, which is clear from the fact that al-Sharaa visited Saudi Arabia first, Bocharov said. "Saudi Arabia has a pragmatic approach to the Syria situation: Riyadh would like to stay on par with the United Arab Emirates and all others who would engage in Syria’s reconstruction efforts for their own benefit," the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Europe once again faces threats of gas deficits
Europe’s gas prices are surging, exceeding the $500 per 1,000 cubic meters mark. The reasons for the spike include an end to Russian gas transit via Ukraine and a colder-than-usual winter. All this could lead to the possibility of gas shortages next winter and a long-term upsurge in gas prices. The situation is forcing European countries to postpone their plans to abandon Russian gas, Izvestia reports.
The European Union is expected to get through this winter without incident, but what’s more important is the next winter. The EU (and Russia, too) is currently searching for a resolution to the issue of Russian gas transit via Ukraine, with the options including a boost in supplies via the TurkStream pipeline and the import of Russian gas rebranded as Azerbaijani. As for liquefied natural gas, it will hardly be possible to expand supplies.
Maria Belova, research director at the Implementa company, believes that without Ukrainian transit, it will be difficult to fill European underground gas storage facilities for the winter of 2025-2026, which may impact prices. Yevgeny Mironyuk, stock market analyst at BCS World of Investment, believes that the problem could worsen in late February. Next, the key factors will include the weather in Asia this summer (where another extreme heatwave is possible), decisions about further curbs on Russian gas supplies, and trade barriers between the EU and the US, as well as between the US and other countries.
Belova notes that an embargo on Russian LNG imports was discussed in connection with another package of sanctions, but the idea was set aside for the time being. Still, "if the political situation does not change, the EU’s push to abandon Russian LNG is just a matter of time," Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman said. "In the base-case scenario, we expect that imports will be fully phased out no earlier than in a year or 18 months, because the rapid depletion of gas from underground storage sites, combined with the current supply constraints on the market, will not allow it to be done earlier. Another thing to note is that high gas prices are an important argument for the premiers of Hungary and Slovakia, who are trying to advocate for a resumption of gas transit via Ukraine," the analyst added.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews