MOSCOW, July 9. /TASS/. The global diamond market could recover 2-3 years, but prices are unlikely to rebound quickly, experts interviewed by TASS believe. One of the main reasons is the collapse in demand for traditional small and medium-sized natural diamonds amid the rapid expansion of synthetic diamond production.
According to Eduard Lysenker, partner at S+Consulting, consumer preferences in the United States, the world's largest diamond market, have changed dramatically. Lab-grown diamonds now account for about half of the engagement ring segment, compared with less than 3% just a few years ago. "In the mass market, lab-grown stones are now used in about one-third of jewelry. The price gap has widened to fourfold. That is what has caused demand for natural mass-market diamonds to collapse," he said.
Finam analyst Egor Vershinin said the market is currently characterized by oversupply and weak demand. De Beers has accumulated significant inventories, the industry remains mired in a prolonged downturn due to weaker luxury spending in China and the expansion of synthetic diamonds, while Angola is increasing sales at market prices, adding further downward pressure on prices.
"Forecasts of a future shortage refer to the longer term, specifically the depletion of deposits by 2030, as projected by the Finance Ministry and other institutions. That does not contradict the current picture: a cyclical oversupply today can coexist with a structural shortage in a few years. It is also worth noting that the decline mainly affects small and medium-sized stones. Larger diamonds of two carats and above have shown the opposite trend since spring," he said, noting that companies, including Alrosa, have raised prices for larger stones amid shortages in that segment.
Vershinin added that De Beers' price cuts indirectly confirm that the current phase of weak demand and excess supply in the global market is continuing, meaning a rapid recovery in prices is unlikely.
Lysenker said he expects prices for rare, large diamonds weighing two carats or more to continue rising because they remain in short supply and are viewed as a good safe-haven asset. Alrosa could benefit from that trend because its sales strategy is focused on the premium segment. "The natural diamond market could recover within two to three years as global production inevitably declines, but without a significant increase in prices," he said.