MOSCOW, March 18. /TASS/. Iran’s potential response to an attack (allegedly by Israel or the US) on the South Pars field poses risks to the entire global gas market, in particular Qatar’s North Field—a twin of the Iranian one—could be targeted, Alexander Frolov, Editor-in-Chief of the InfoTEK portal, told TASS.
If LNG plants are damaged, Qatar will be sidelined from the export expansion race for a long time, triggering a new spike in gas prices.
The expert notes that the key issue of the current conflict is not its duration, but the scale of losses Middle Eastern countries will suffer. The Iranian leadership has clearly stated its position: any attacks on its energy facilities will trigger strikes against the region's fuel and energy complex, he noted.
"The main question raised by the current conflict is not when it will end, but what losses the Middle Eastern countries will sustain. After the strike on South Pars, the response has become even more uncertain. The Iranian leadership has stated that in response to attacks on the country's energy facilities, it would strike the region's fuel and energy complex. If the Islamic Republic follows the logic of symmetrical responses, then facilities in Qatar associated with the North Field—the twin of Iran's South Pars—could be targeted," Frolov said.
According to the analyst, both operating plants and facilities that Qatar planned to launch within the next three years could be affected.
"In the worst-case scenario for Qatar, their recovery will take years. Plans to increase LNG production by 50% by the end of the decade will have to be abandoned. This will create a shortage on the global market, which no exporter will be able to address in 2026. Further price increases for both gas and coal will be inevitable. The 2021-2023 crisis scenario will largely repeat itself. But under current conditions, it will be exacerbated by high oil prices," he said.
At the same time, the expert drew attention to the initial signals from Tehran. According to official statements, the initial strikes are planned primarily against oil and petrochemical assets.
"This can be seen as a demonstration of resolve and the fulfillment of its threats. In other words, in the initial phase, Tehran is not inflicting irreparable losses on global energy markets," Frolov concluded.
Earlier, Tasnim news agency reported that several Iranian oil and gas infrastructure facilities at the South Pars and Assaluyeh fields were hit by US and Israeli strikes. The agency did not provide details on damage or casualties as a result of the attack.