MOSCOW, June 15. /TASS/. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the oil prices will skyrocket posing a serious problem for India, China, Japan and the European states, Nikolay Gaponenko, Associate professor at the Department of the Institute of Law and National Security of the Presidential Academy, told TASS.
Earlier, Esmaeil Kowsari, a member of the Iranian parliament's committee on national security and foreign policy, said that after the Israeli attacks Iran is considering closing the strait, through which up to 30% of the world's liquefied natural gas supplies and up to 20% of global oil and petroleum products exports pass.
"The Strait of Hormuz is the most important sea route for the export of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. Tens of millions of barrels of oil pass through this narrow channel every day, providing about a fifth of the global trade in raw materials. Its closure will lead to serious problems for many countries, especially those that depend on energy imports, including China, Japan, India and European countries," Gaponenko said.
For example, in May 2019, Iran warned that any interference in its oil exports could lead to serious consequences, roiling markets and spurring up prices.
According to Gaponenko, closure of the strait will inevitably affect global oil prices. Despite modern technologies for the production and storage of hydrocarbons, transportation problems will significantly increase the price of fuel, he noted. "This will be a serious challenge for the largest oil consumers, such as China and India, as their economies are heavily dependent on stable energy supplies. The price of oil may rise significantly, which will increase inflationary pressure in the world and complicate the economic situation," Gaponenko explained.
Long-term changes in the energy sector
"Any prolonged disruption of the supply routes of resources, in principle, can push many countries to accelerate the transition to renewable energy," he said. According to him, increasing investments in wind, solar and hydropower will reduce dependence on fossil fuels and increase the resilience of economies to external shocks.
Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on the night of June 13, targeting Iran's nuclear program. The Islamic Republic retaliated less than a day later. On June 14 and on the night of June 15, Israel and Iran exchanged strikes again. Both sides reported deaths and injuries as a result of these attacks, acknowledged some objects on their territories were hit, but stated that the damage was limited.