MOSCOW, February 14. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia's Board of Directors will hold a meeting on the key rate on Friday. Experts expect the key rate to remain at 21% per annum. In their opinion, the regulator may consider raising it to 22-23%, but this scenario is unlikely now.
At a meeting in December last year, the Bank of Russia unexpectedly for the market kept the rate at 21% per annum. Since the majority believed that the indicator would reach 23-25% in December, the Russian securities market responded to the regulator’s decision with noticeable growth - since mid-December, the MOEX index has shown an increase of almost 33%.
When deciding on the rate in December, the regulator noted that the tightening of monetary conditions from the rate increase turned out to be more significant than expected. Nevertheless, the regulator continues to point out that the balance of risks for inflation is still shifted towards pro-inflationary ones, and the future fate of the rate will depend on the dynamics of lending and inflation.
Analysts believe that although the regulator will consider raising the rate, it is very unlikely that it will happen. The reason for this is the decline in the credit impulse, as well as the slowdown in retail and corporate lending.
"This gives a signal to the Central Bank that both the rate and macroprudential measures are beginning to have the necessary restraining effect on the economy <…> and allows us to take a wait-and-see attitude," explained Alina Poptsova, an analyst at the stock market at Alfa Capital Management Company.
The financial market situation does not require the Bank of Russia to change market expectations, added Dmitry Kulikov, Director of the Sovereign Ratings and Macroeconomic Analysis Group at ACRA.
"The markets for the most part already include the understanding that this year's average interest rates will be higher than last year's, investment and consumer plans are made in this paradigm," the expert noted.
According to the majority of respondents, the Bank of Russia will move to easing the monetary policy no earlier than the second half of 2025. This will happen if there is progress in cooling inflation or the geopolitical situation improves.