SYDNEY, February 4. /TASS/. The decision not to extend the Russian-American Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) could signal the dawn of a new era marked by an intensified arms race involving at least three major players, according to Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
Reflecting on the impending expiration of the treaty on February 5, the Australian expert remarked that "the end of the New START treaty bodes well for neither international arms control nor global stability." She further noted that the United States unilaterally withdrew from the bilateral Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 and from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, weakening the foundation of existing arms control agreements.
In an article for The Strategist, a publication by ASPI, Rajagopalan emphasized that China, alongside Russia and the United States, has now become a fully-fledged nuclear power and is "rapidly expanding its nuclear forces." She warned: "With START's expiration, almost all current strategic arms-control negotiations and treaties will be gone. Lacking any restraining frameworks, this could very well be the beginning of a new, much more dangerous, three-horse nuclear arms race."
About the treaty
The New START Treaty was signed in 2010. In February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow's decision to suspend its participation in the agreement, though he clarified that Russia was not withdrawing entirely. He stressed that before resuming negotiations on the treaty’s future, Russia must first have a clear understanding how the arsenals of not only the United States but also other NATO nuclear powers - Britain and France - are to be accounted for.
According to the treaty’s provisions, each party commits to reducing its strategic offensive weapons so that, seven years after its entry into force and thereafter, the total number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers (HBs) does not exceed 700. Additionally, the number of deployed and non-deployed launchers of these weapons is capped at 800, with a maximum of 1,550 warheads on them. Last September, Putin announced during a meeting with the Russian Security Council that Moscow was prepared to continue adhering to these quantitative restrictions for another year after the treaty’s expiration. However, he emphasized that this was only feasible if Washington also maintained its commitments. Responding to a TASS query on October 5, 2025, former President Donald Trump described Putin’s proposal as a "good idea," but the United States has yet to take concrete steps in response to Russia’s position.