MOSCOW, February 12. /TASS/. The 2015 Minsk agreements (Minsk-2) gave Ukraine an opportunity to preserve its sovereignty and reintegrate the Donbass region. However, according to political analyst Pavel Danilin, the director of the Center for Political Analysis, Kiev did not make a coordinated effort to implement them. February 12, 2025, marks the tenth anniversary of the signing of the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, a series of documents adopted in 2014-2015 aimed at resolving the conflict in southeastern Ukraine.
Danilin asserts that had Minsk-2 been followed as intended, relations between Russia and Ukraine would have remained "strained, tense, but fundamentally adequate." He remarked: "Ideally, these agreements represented Ukraine's last chance to preserve itself."
He further noted that if Kiev had fully implemented Minsk-2 within a reasonable timeframe, "an effective integration policy could have aided the return of Donbass to Ukraine within 20 to 30 years."
Parties’ objectives
Danilin explained that the agreements would have allowed each party to achieve its respective objectives. For Kiev, it was crucial to halt hostilities, as the Ukrainian army was clearly at a disadvantage. "For Donbass and Lugansk, it was equally important, given that their human resources were limited and they needed time to rebuild," he added. For Russia, he emphasized, avoiding a significant confrontation with the global West - something that ultimately materialized seven years after the Minsk agreements - was also of paramount importance.
"Without 'Minsk,' we likely would not have been able to sustain ourselves economically if that direct clash had occurred at that time. Yes, perhaps there would have been less resistance from Ukraine then, but it’s unclear how the conflict with the global West would have unfolded," Danilin noted. "For Ukraine, the implementation of the agreements would have produced far better outcomes, and for us, I believe that if Minsk-2 had been fully and properly executed, our current situation would be significantly worse and strategically unfavorable." However, he concluded that Ukraine showed no inclination to enforce this agreement.
In December 2024, during a combined live question-and-answer session and press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the decision to initiate a special operation in Ukraine should have been made earlier than 2022 and that preparations should have begun in advance. He reflected: "In hindsight, I recognize that the Kiev authorities had explicitly declared their intention not to honor the Minsk agreements and also claimed to possess some weapons of mass destruction." Russia, he asserted, felt deceived regarding the future of the Minsk agreements.