WASHINGTON, August 25. /TASS/. Western nations supporting Kiev will find it increasingly difficult to maintain unity in case the conflict in Ukraine is not ended soon, Joshua C. Huminski, director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress, wrote in his commentary in the Washington-based The Hill newspaper on Wednesday.
"Maintaining European and allied unity in the face of existing conditions is becoming increasingly difficult due to multiple, interrelated factors," he writes. "Each party appears to have a different definition of a satisfactory outcome. For the United States and the United Kingdom, it is whatever Kiev defines for itself. For the Baltic States, which have long warned of Russia’s territorial ambitions, nothing less than a catastrophic defeat is acceptable (whatever that looks like in practice). France and Germany appear keen to resolve the situation swiftly and diplomatically and are more inclined to avoid a humiliating defeat for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and Russia."
According to Huminski, if the coming winter in Europe proves to be "a cold and harsh season, the pressure to reengage Russian energy could become significant."
Germany, which is moving toward an economic recession, may lose its "willingness to incur and sustain such economic pain" for the sake of supporting Ukraine and Italy’s September elections could be an indicator of changing moods in Europe, he noted, adding that if the conflict stops but not ends, "maintaining this long-haul unity will prove difficult given the internal nation-state dynamics."
"This is what some analysts suspect Putin hopes to achieve: dragging the conflict out as long as possible to create and exploit gaps in the West’s support for Ukraine. The longer the conflict drags on, the greater the political and economic cost, and the emergence of other more pressing issues, the greater the likelihood that Russia will achieve its aims <…> regardless of the cost," he wrote. "An open-ended conflict will assuredly lead to the erosion of Western support for the war, especially as other pressures emerge."
On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation in response to a request for help by the heads of the Donbass republics. He stressed that Moscow had no plans of occupying Ukrainian territories, but aimed to demilitarize and denazify the country. After that, the West began to impose large-scale anti-Russian sanctions and intensified weapons supplies to Ukraine.