MOSCOW, February 19. /TASS/. Further developments in Donbass depend on decisions yet to be made in Washington, where there is a great divergence of views to be eventually expressed to the Ukrainian authorities, the deputy director of the CIS Countries Institute, Vladimir Zharikhin, told TASS on Saturday.
"The place where the future of Donbass and Ukraine is decided is Washington. Different groups struggling there have different visions of the further march of events. This explains the current situation of uncertainty and the rather conflicting statements President Joe Biden has been making.
One group in the US believes that the situation should be left as it is, it is for creating obstructions to the implementation of the Minsk Accords, but at the same time prefers to refrain from building up tensions to the extreme for fear Russia may completely team up with China, which would mean the United States would be confronted with two adversaries.
"But there is also another group, which seems to be gaining the upper hand at certain stages of this struggle, the Antony Blinken-led group in the Department of State, which argues that things should be sorted with Russia first and long-term problems created for it in Ukraine in various respects, including financial, military and political. Once Russia is distracted in this way, it will be possible to deal with China," Zharikhin said.
This struggle is in progress at the moment and all forecasts of further events depend on its outcome.
"Will the authorities in Kiev attack Donbass? The chances are split evenly. Or possibly 70/30," he believes. Should this happen, Zharikhin said, "this will evoke Russia’s proportionate response with all the ensuing consequences."
At the same time Zharikhin does not rule out that "the party of peace" may gain the upper hand. "There are some pragmatics in Washington, who believe that such a scenario will result in a tight alliance of Moscow and Beijing, which will eventually prove a hindrance in the struggle with China," he concluded.
Tensions on the engagement line in the east of Ukraine soared in the morning of February 17. The Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics reported the worst bombardments by the Ukrainian military in recent months. On Friday, the Lugansk and Donetsk leaders, Leonid Pasechnik and Denis Pushilin, declared the evacuation of civilians to Russia in view of the growing risk of hostilities.