MOSCOW, September 7. /TASS/. The Taliban movement (outlawed in Russia) may lose stability in Afghanistan, if it bars various ethnic groups from running the country and permits a drastic worsening of the socio-economic situation, the general director of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrey Kortunov, told TASS on Tuesday.
In that case, the Islamic State (outlawed in Russia) will have a chance to get entrenched in Afghanistan. The country's territory will then turn into a haven for various terrorist groups.
"Of course, there is a risk, and it is possibly the greatest risk of all, that the economic situation in the country will turn for the worse, and the problems of poverty and inequality will deteriorate. If the Taliban fail to attract ethnic groups to governing the country (Tajiks and Uzbeks in the North, and so on and so forth), the Islamic State will have another chance, because some of these radically minded people will turn their backs on the Taliban to opt for alternative political projects," he explained.
New government
Kortunov has no doubts that at this point the Taliban will manage to form a government entirely on its own. The country lacks well-established, politically active and legitimate forces that might balance the Taliban's interests somehow. The process of creating a truly inclusive government is hindered by such objective factors as the Taliban's fast and triumphant rise to power and the lack of any counter-balances.
"The question is to what extent this new government will be inclusive and representative. In other words, if it will be a Taliban-only administration, and if yes, what the balance of moderate leaders and more radical ones in it will be like," Kortunov said.
Destabilization risks and change of flags
Kortunov stressed that the Taliban was waging an uncompromising war on the Islamic State and its members, but the latter might take advantage of internal contradictions in the country, if Afghanistan's economy were undermined.
"If the economic and social situation quickly turns from bad to worse while the remnants of the Islamic State will be still present in the country and escape ultimate defeat, Afghanistan will see again what has already happened there more than once: a change of flags. Today some militants may be waving the Taliban's flag, but tomorrow they may put it aside to take up the flag of the Islamic State and indulge in terrorist activity," Kortunov said.
"This would be the worst scenario of all, which everybody should bear in mind; in particular, those who wish to impose economic sanctions on the Taliban. The results of such actions may be counterproductive," the expert warned. Kortunov suspects that the Western countries' inconsistency on the issue may convert Afghanistan into a rogue state and fuel its economic crisis.
"If the West, the United States first and foremost, treats Afghanistan the way it treats Iran, the direst consequences may ensue. For Afghanistan, the pressure of sanctions will have far more unfavorable effects than for Iran, and very soon, Kortunov stressed.
In a situation like this a unanimous stance by the international community might help preserve stability in Afghanistan and at the same time exert certain influence on the Taliban.
"If the international community manages to present a common front - in the UN Security Council or in the G20 - and address the Taliban at least with some minimal requirements, all this will provide stronger leverage in terms of possible influence on the Taliban's policies. Everybody should make up one's mind what is more important: to go ahead with the struggle around Afghanistan and for Afghanistan, or to achieve unanimity and present a common front to demand, firstly, firm guarantees there will be no terrorist activity from the territory of Afghanistan and, secondly, the observance of the basic human rights, pluralism and gender equality."