MOSCOW, July 19. /TASS/. The Iranian authorities are currently keeping the situation with the local protests under control, but it is possible that they will morph into nationwide demonstrations by fall or winter, says Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Oriental Studies.
"Yes, the situation with the protests currently remains under the control of the authorities, because [the protests] are small in magnitude, they are not nationwide yet, but they may become so by fall or winter. The authorities are controlling the situation on the ground at present," the commentator said.
According to the analyst, the domestic socio-political and economic situation in Iran is very complicated at this moment. He noted that there are several factors that influence the state of affairs in the country. In particular, he pointed to the rather poor system of economic management, including outgoing President Hassan Rouhani’s failure to carry out the planned reforms.
"Besides, corruption maintains a powerful [grip] on Iran. This is further exacerbated by the American sanctions that significantly undermine the Iranian economy. In addition to that, the COVID-19 [pandemic], which, according to the WHO, harms Iran the most in the Middle East," the commentator added. Furthermore, he also highlighted the climate factor at play there.
"Iran is weathering a drought right now, and there is a water shortage, especially in the southern regions, plus on top of that there are electric power shortages," Sazhin said. "All this combined seriously undermines the Iranians’ daily life economically. This is why protests have been going on for a while here and there, [they are] mostly economic in nature."
Transitional period obstacles
These difficulties are politically exacerbated by the period of transition of power to the newly-elected President Ebrahim Raisi. The analyst harked back to the recent June elections, which had the lowest voter turnout in Iran’s history, and almost no opposition candidates participated in them, so there is certain frustration over the political situation in Iran as well.
"I can’t say that these frustrations, both economic and political, have sparked any kind of nationwide demonstrations or nationwide protests. Although we do know that, in 2009, people’s frustration over the presidential elections triggered massive demonstrations, which lasted for almost one year - the so-called Green Movement," Sazhin pointed out.
Although the situation in Iran is currently tense as well, the system will not collapse in the foreseeable future, Sazhin contended.
"The authorities are keeping the situation under control. It’s hard to say how efficient that would be, because some events that are totally unpredictable at this point can happen," he maintained.
Sazhin noted another point important for Tehran - the Vienna talks on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
"All JCPOA signatories in Vienna want to reanimate this deal. Recently, Iran asked for a timeout, for the duration of the transition of power from Rouhani to Raisi. A lot depends on the outcome of these talks, because, should a consensus be achieved, the Trump-imposed sanctions would be removed. These restrictions are very tough and they impact the Iranian economy the most," the expert said.
"If a consensus is not achieved, if the JCPOA is not restored and the sanctions are not lifted, then nobody can guarantee calm in Iran’s internal politics," Sazhin concluded.