MOSCOW, August 5. /TASS/. The new potential talks between Iran and the US could fail; the migration crisis in Spain’s Ceuta has become a major challenge to EU solidarity and unity; and Russian and Ukrainian attacks on vessels in the Black Sea are unlikely to result in a new grain deal. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Why new US-Iran talks could collapse
Iran and the US are returning to the negotiating table after several weeks of tensions that brought them to the brink of war. However, the sentiment on both sides and the agenda for the meeting suggest that Tehran and Washington will not find a diplomatic solution to the conflict anytime soon. The "last-chance talks" announced by the White House will likely only escalate the standoff. Nevertheless, experts are optimistic that diplomats can still develop a solid agreement. To do so, though, both sides will have to show flexibility.
The US has returned to the strategy of targeted but intense strikes against Iranian infrastructure. Tehran, in turn, has increased attacks on NATO transport hubs in Jordan and Kuwait and has tightened control in the Strait of Hormuz and has utilized the Houthis of Qatar's Ansar Allah rebel movement to do the same in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, triggering new volatility in oil prices.
According to political scientist Dastan Tokoldoshev, Iran has little incentive to accept US terms. This is especially true given that the current state of "neither war nor peace" allows Tehran to gain from the new regional relations architecture. The standoff between Washington and Tehran has created geopolitical and economic conditions that have given Iran significant influence over the economies of Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries (mostly US allies) and global commodity prices. The analyst emphasized that Tehran will not give up this leverage without substantial concessions from the US administration.
Meanwhile, Tehran does not deny that its contacts with the Omani authorities have become more frequent. Outside observers view these contacts as part of a system of indirect talks with Washington. Political analyst Hisham Adham told Izvestia that proxy diplomacy has a good chance of success since Oman is not directly involved in the conflict and acts as a neutral party. According to the expert, the current situation offers good prospects for a diplomatic settlement and reaching a compromise that would satisfy both sides. This could help break the deadlock in the negotiation process, he noted.
Izvestia: EU unable to resolve crisis in Spain’s Ceuta
The migration crisis in Ceuta became the first major challenge of the new EU rules. At an emergency video conference on August 4, the interior ministers of EU member states voiced solidarity with Spain, but did not agree on any specific new measures. Prior to that, 22 countries had reproached Madrid, attributing the incident to the policies of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government. According to experts, such crises will persist because the EU migration pact does not address their root causes.
In the spring of 2026, Sanchez decided to grant emergency legal status to foreigners who were already in Spain. Those who had arrived before January 1 and had lived in the country for at least five months were eligible to apply. As a result, Madrid received about 1.17 million applications and had accepted nearly 610,000 of them by July. The problem in Ceuta was a direct consequence of Sanchez’s policy, which he did not align with the EU, Financial University associate professor Vadim Trukhachev told Izvestia. According to him, the mass legalization gave Moroccans false hope that they would easily obtain documents after crossing the border.
Moreover, the events in Ceuta will increase pressure on Pedro Sanchez’s government and make migration a key election campaign issue. The current influx of refugees could speed up the shift of voters away from the moderate People’s Party toward the right-wing Vox, Trukhachev emphasized. He noted that anti-immigration sentiment is growing even among Catalan and Basque nationalists in the regions where Madrid is redistributing the new arrivals. Spain's next general election is in 2027, so the country's domestic political situation largely depends on whether a similar breakdown occurs before the end of Sanchez’s term and if his opponents can capitalize on this issue.
Within the EU, this influx of refugees will most likely be viewed as the use of migration to exert pressure on Spain, Yegor Sergeyev, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), pointed out. At the same time, the expert stressed that there is currently no evidence that Rabat intentionally organized the border breach. However, such flare-ups will continue until the EU addresses the gaps in its policy, the expert noted. The new pact has failed to resolve disagreements over the reception and distribution of refugees, so another crisis could arise at any other section of the EU’s external border, he added.
Vedomosti: Attacks disrupting shipping in Black Sea, Sea of Azov
Russia and Ukraine must "urgently take specific measures to ensure the safety of shipping" in the Black Sea, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in an August 4 statement, following the second attack in a month on a Turkish vessel in the Black Sea. According to the press release, the Turkish civilian vessels Yashar and Nadezhda were targeted by drones on the evening of August 3 "after leaving the port of Novorossiysk." According to Turkish media, the vessel was carrying fresh fruits and vegetables to Russia. In addition, strikes on southern Ukrainian ports and vessels heading in their direction have become more regular, according to regular reports from the Russian Defense Ministry, which note that the vessels were transporting military cargo.
From July 2022 to July 2023, during the initial phase of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was in effect, concluded under Turkish mediation. Under the deal, Kiev committed to the unhindered export of agricultural products via the Black Sea from Ukrainian ports under Russian guarantees and following inspection by Russian authorities. In turn, Moscow committed to removing Western restrictions on food exports.
The grain deal, which was arranged under Turkey’s auspices, affected not only Ankara’s interests but also those of the entire Middle East and North Africa, Alina Vernigora, a research fellow at the Center for Strategic Planning Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. According to her, Turkey acted as a mediator at that time because it had cooperative ties with both Russia and Ukraine, a privilege other countries did not have. "Therefore, the question of future 'mediation' and a 'new format' for the Black Sea shipping agreement can only be raised when the issue affects not only Turkey's interests, but also those of a larger number of regional players who wish to maintain neutrality, which is clearly not the case. Ankara is doing everything it can to maintain neutrality, which is why it is only willing to provide guarantees after a ceasefire," the expert pointed out.
There are no chances for a new agreement on guarantees for shipping in the Black Sea, Nikolay Silayev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations, stressed. "There will be no new grain deal. Therefore, the Russian Transport Ministry will help exporters develop logistics solutions via other basins and alternative routes," the expert said.
Media: Japan releases its annual Defense White Paper
Japan has released its annual Defense White Paper. Against the backdrop of Tokyo’s policy of strengthening defense capabilities, the document predictably calls for further expanding the country’s military capabilities "with even greater urgency and a sense of crisis than ever before." As expected, the list of major threats to Japan’s national security includes military activities by neighboring China and North Korea, as well as the strengthening of cooperation between those two countries and Russia. However, a new emphasis in the White Paper is the conclusion that an accelerated buildup of military power not only helps defend the country, but also supports economic growth through investment in arms production.
The main driver of Japan’s militarization is not economic but strategic considerations, Vladimir Nelidov, an associate professor in the MGIMO’s Oriental Studies Department, told Vedomosti. The Japanese government views China as the key threat, one that must be "counterbalanced," and in this context, the push toward militarization is a reaction rather than an offensive strategy, the expert noted. At the same time, however, military spending places a heavy burden on Japan’s financial system because the country has significant public debt, even though Japanese banks and investment firms are the main holders of its bonds. While some hope that militarization will stimulate the economy, competition from the West will make it difficult for Japan to enter the arms market, Nelidov noted.
Interestingly, Russia is not viewed as a direct threat in Tokyo’s military plans, Viktor Kuzminkov, a leading researcher in the Japan Economics and Politics Group at the Center for Strategic Planning Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, said. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Tokyo has revised its stance toward Moscow, but it considers China and North Korea to be the main threats, even though China remains an important trading partner, the expert noted. "Pyongyang and Beijing are building up their strategic capabilities, while Russia’s agreements with the US on nuclear weapons are a thing of the past. Under these circumstances, substantial amendments could be introduced to Japan’s pacifist constitution," Kuzminkov stressed.
At the same time, Japan's conclusion from these assessments, combined with an analysis of the lessons of modern warfare, was to make greater use of modern technologies, fund defense startups, and incorporate more commercial components into weapons production. The experts told Kommersant that any further increase in spending will go toward the acquisition of unmanned aerial vehicles similar to those widely used by Ukraine in the war with Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Financial performance of Russian companies to worsen
The conditions for economic growth in Russia will deteriorate due to rising fuel prices, potential rate hikes, and mounting risks for businesses in the new economy. Economists warn that Russian companies will experience declining financial performance due to mounting logistics costs resulting from reduced fuel production and warehouse infrastructure damage. Nevertheless, experts at the Institute for National Economic Forecasting under the Russian Academy of Sciences expect GDP growth to reach a few tenths of a percent in 2026, suggesting that the economic downturn at the start of the year has been overcome.
The risk of large warehouses being destroyed is a new factor that fundamentally changes the prospects for developing new economic sectors in Russia. Many believe that the damage caused by the destruction of Wildberries’ warehouses and distribution centers is measured solely by the value of the warehouses themselves and the lost goods. However, the destruction of large distribution centers calls into question the prospects of many modern businesses whose competitiveness is based on lowering costs through the concentration of production and logistics.
"A platform economy with large warehouses and distribution centers works well in peacetime. But under our current circumstances, it’s practically impossible to guarantee the security of such large facilities. Therefore, having a large warehouse or manufacturing facility becomes a weak point. To reduce this vulnerability, decentralization is required today, which will inevitably lead to a reduction in the economic efficiency of business processes," Cherepovets Casting and Mechanical Plant Director Vladimir Boglayev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
However, despite enemy attacks and an overall drop in efficiency, the Russian economy is capable of minimal economic growth. "The main outcome of the Russian economy's development in the second quarter of 2026 is the rebound of output following the initial year-long decline and the stabilization of production volumes in civilian sectors of the real economy," a new report by the Institute for National Economic Forecasting said. At the same time, researchers acknowledge the significant impact of several adverse factors, including sanctions, an increased tax burden, tight monetary policy, and military attacks on oil refining and storage facilities. Economic activity is being supported by growing consumer demand, as well as steady levels of government spending and export revenues, they noted.
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