MOSCOW, July 4. /TASS/. Trump and Putin hold their sixth official call this year, focusing on the Middle East and Ukraine; Moscow expects a complete halt of Western arms deliveries to Ukraine; and Russia has become the leading investor in the Eurasian Economic Union amid Western sanctions. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Trump, Putin hold sixth official call this year, focusing on Middle East and Ukraine
On the evening of July 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump held their sixth official telephone conversation since Trump’s return to the White House earlier this year. According to Yuri Ushakov, Aide to the Russian President for Foreign Policy Affairs, the discussion lasted nearly an hour. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that while Trump sought to pressure Putin into a ceasefire in Ukraine by suspending arms deliveries and offering diplomatic incentives, Russia remains firm on its strategic demands and is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire without addressing the underlying causes of the conflict.
Regarding international issues, the two leaders discussed the situation in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Iran, and also touched on matters concerning Syria. On these topics, Ushakov specified, Putin and Trump agreed to maintain contact through their respective agencies and advisers.
The leaders also addressed the situation regarding Ukraine. Trump once again raised the issue of an expedited cessation of hostilities. Putin, for his part, responded that Moscow continues to seek a political resolution to the conflict and reported progress in the ongoing direct negotiations with Ukraine. However, he emphasized that Russia would continue striving to eliminate the root causes of the current conflict.
The principal focus of the conversation was the situation in the Middle East, Nikolay Silayev, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for International Studies of MGIMO University, told Vedomosti.
It is evident that the two presidents maintain good personal relations, as evidenced by their calls on the eve of symbolic dates, Dmitry Suslov, Deputy of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Higher School of Economics, said. At the same time, Suslov suggested that Trump was likely attempting to pressure Putin regarding a ceasefire.
The expert pointed out that Trump had suspended the supply of certain weapons to Ukraine. Therefore, it is possible that during the conversation with Putin, he employed "not only a stick but also a carrot", suggesting, for example, that if Russia agrees to a ceasefire, the suspension of weapons deliveries could become a permanent measure. However, judging by the outcome, this approach is unlikely to succeed, as Russia’s position remains fundamentally unchanged, and most likely, regardless of US actions, it is not prepared to agree to a ceasefire without its demands being met.
Trump sought to push through his own vision for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to political analyst Alexander Nemtsov. The White House is insisting on a ceasefire along the current front line, after which Moscow and Kiev would sit down at the negotiating table, the expert noted. "To this end, Washington has refrained from imposing new sanctions against Russia and has suspended arms deliveries to Ukraine. However, the Russian side is unwilling to trade tactical decisions at the expense of strategic interests and agrees to cease hostilities only after the root causes of the conflict are addressed," Nemtsov concluded.
Izvestia: Russia expects complete halt to Western arms supplies to Ukraine, while Kiev seeks alternatives through Europe
Russia wants to see all Western arms deliveries to Ukraine halted, Special Representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry for Crimes of the Kiev Regime Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. For now, the United States has suspended only part of its military assistance, specifically missiles and artillery shells, but even this may accelerate a resolution to the conflict, experts believe. Nevertheless, Kiev may try to obtain US weapons through the European Union. Joint production of new military equipment, particularly with Germany, is also under discussion.
Russia advocates for the complete cessation of weapons supplies to Ukraine, Miroshnik reiterated in his comments to Izvestia. "The sooner this is accomplished, the sooner peace will come to Ukraine, and the sooner the fighting and bloodshed on Ukrainian territory will end," he said.
Nevertheless, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may still hope for European assistance. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov reported holding a meeting in Kiev with representatives of 20 German defense companies. The parties discussed an initiative for joint arms production and the possibility of manufacturing up to ten million drones annually. However, the newspaper noted that Europe lacks effective replacements for American systems such as the Patriot missiles, which have become a cornerstone of Ukraine’s air defense.
"The military-industrial complex was mainly based in the United States, while Europe’s role was largely to purchase, not produce. Perhaps only France’s defense sector remains strong, while Germany’s former military-industrial prowess is no longer at its peak," former Verkhovna Rada deputy Vladimir Oleynik told Izvestia.
"Even if some items are manufactured in Europe, such as the Storm Shadow missiles made in the United Kingdom, they still cannot be sold without the United States’ consent, as the missiles contain American components. The condition is that if you received components from the US, you must notify them before any sale," Oleynik explained.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia becomes investment 'engine' of Eurasian Economic Union
The central topic of discussion at the Eurasian Economic Forum in Minsk was the dynamics of foreign investment in the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Officials noted a steady growth in mutual investments among EAEU countries. Independent economists, however, pointed to another trend: since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has received little investment from its allied states but has been actively investing its own capital in other EAEU countries. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have now emerged as the main recipients of foreign direct investment. Experts polled by Nezavisimaya Gazeta agree that Russia has become the economic engine of the EAEU, channeling investments into allied states amid Western sanctions, while facing reduced capital inflows itself due to sanctions risks and currency restrictions.
Despite primary and secondary Western sanctions, the EAEU region continues to experience high investment activity and an inflow of foreign direct investment. This is evidenced by official EAEU statistics, reports from ministries, and studies by independent research centers. Experts from the Higher School of Economics noted that Russia had become the primary investor within the Economic Union between 2020 and 2023. During these years, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus were the leading recipients of mutual investments, while Russia was the principal investing country.
"Russia receives somewhat less foreign direct investment than other EAEU member states, but there are understandable reasons for this: the sanctions regime, while other countries have not been subjected to as many restrictions since 2022," Oleg Abelev, Head of the Analytical Department at Ricom-Trust, explained. "Russia’s EAEU partners may fear the risk of secondary sanctions. Additionally, there are restrictions on capital movement within Russia due to currency controls," the expert noted.
"Since 2022, EAEU countries have effectively become a hub for Russia’s economic ties with the outside world. In the context of severe Western sanctions and difficulties with international settlements, Russian foreign direct investment in EAEU countries can, in many cases, expand the opportunities for Russian business," Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam emphasized.
"Any regional integration is created to ensure the sustainable economic development of the region. <…> In this way, Germany became the driving force of the European economy, and Russia plays the role of the leading economy for the EAEU countries," Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Ekaterina Novikova told the newspaper.
Vedomosti: Trump increases pressure on China via third countries
China opposes any trade agreements between other countries and the United States that harm its interests and warns that such actions will be met with decisive retaliatory measures, said He Yunqiang, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce, who confirmed that Beijing is currently analyzing the trade deal signed the day before between Vietnam and the United States. Experts told Vedomosti they believe that Trump’s tariff deal with Vietnam is likely to provoke Chinese retaliation, disrupt Chinese manufacturing in Vietnam, and deepen Beijing’s skepticism toward any sustainable economic agreements with the Trump administration.
As US President Donald Trump announced on the social media platform Truth Social, aside from the 20% tariff set for all exports from Hanoi (down from an initial 46%), the two sides also agreed on a 40% tariff for all goods shipped in transit. Since his first term in office, Trump has accused Vietnam of facilitating the re-export of Chinese goods.
According to Bloomberg analysts, this deal could very well provoke retaliatory measures from China. Considering that China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner, any countermeasures from Beijing could significantly impact the Vietnamese economy. The agreement also indicated that Washington is unlikely to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods below 40%.
Now, Chinese manufacturers who have established factories in Vietnam will be forced to recalculate their costs and may consider relocating to another Southeast Asian country, Head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexander Lomanov told Vedomosti. Vietnam’s willingness to align itself with the United States was clearly not anticipated by Chinese businesses, and they will now have to pay closer attention to the political context, the expert believes.
China will not be a passive observer, Lomanov continued. Beijing is ready to negotiate but understands that any agreements with the unpredictable Trump administration will likely be short-lived, he added. Any serious deterioration in the economic and technological spheres caused by the United States will be met with China’s response, as was the case with restrictions on rare earth exports, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Western powers seek Caspian Sea access as regional tensions rise over Iran
Israel’s attack on Iran occurred within the context of a broader Western strategy aimed at changing the political regime in Tehran and dismantling the North-South and East-West trade corridors, Izvestia writes. By gaining control over Iran, the United States and Israel would effectively secure a dominant position in the Caspian region, which would open the possibility of blocking the shortest transport routes, including railways, linking the Middle East and China. The consequences of such developments could be unpredictable, and the North-South corridor project, in which Moscow has invested not only politically but also diplomatically, may be jeopardized, the newspaper writes.
According to Izvestia, several European countries, led by the United Kingdom, would like to see the legal status of the Caspian Sea altered to shift the balance of power in the global resource market. The conflict between Israel and Iran could serve as a convenient pretext for concluding agreements without Tehran’s involvement.
Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Science and Head of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that for many observers, the developments currently unfolding around the South Caucasus have come as a surprise.
"The West’s struggle against us continues, and not only in the context of the special military operation. They use various means: applying pressure here, imposing sanctions there, causing trouble elsewhere, or igniting conflict," the expert explained.
At the same time, Russian political analyst Dmitry Evstafiev believes that the confrontation surrounding Iran should be viewed much more broadly. In his view, the events in the region represent an attempt to implement a British geopolitical scenario.
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