MOSCOW, July 3. /TASS/. The United States has suspended some critical arms deliveries to Ukraine, citing national interests; the European Union looks to strike a trade with the US ASAP as tariff deadline looms; and NATO is expanding its military presence in the Baltic and Arctic regions to constrain Russian maritime access. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: US halts supplies of key ammunition to Ukraine, signaling strategic shift
The United States is suspending supplies of certain weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly confirmed, adding that the decision was made in the name of national interests. Politico was the first to report the arms halt. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe the US decision to suspend arms supplies to Ukraine reflects a strategic reassessment of its own military stockpiles and global priorities, with Washington focusing on countering China and pressuring Kiev toward concessions in the conflict with Russia.
According to these reports, an internal government review revealed a decline in US stockpiles of artillery shells, missile defense interceptors, and precision-guided munitions, which prompted the decision to halt some of the planned shipments to Kiev. Sources indicate that this decision was originally made in the first half of June.
The reasons for the decision are fundamentally straightforward: the United States is conducting an audit of its arsenal, assessing its reserves of all types of ammunition, evaluating the extent to which it can increase production, and weighing all this against consumption rates in high-intensity conflicts, research fellow at the Center for International Security of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Dmitry Stefanovich told Vedomosti. Therefore, all expenditures will face cuts, the expert noted. In his view, political factors are secondary. For Kiev, the most acute problem is a lack of missile stockpiles for air and missile defense, which badly need replenishing, Stefanovich emphasized.
The United States is struggling to manage simultaneous confrontations in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Suslov believes. In his assessment, the prevailing view in Washington is that the US must first and foremost counter China, which has led to a reduction in American support for Ukraine and a scaling back of its commitments to Kiev.
The United States is exerting pressure on Kiev, sending an unambiguous signal that Washington does not support the prolongation of hostilities, the expert suggested. The US is pushing Ukraine toward new concessions to Russia, although in the short term, Kiev is unlikely to become more amenable to compromise. The Zelensky government will only adopt a more conciliatory stance when faced with a real shortage of ammunition and the threat of front-line collapse, Suslov concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU races to strike trade deal with US before tariff pause lapses
European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic will hold talks in Washington on Thursday, July 3, with US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The discussions will focus on a new trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. The EU representative intends to demand a reduction in American tariffs on products from key sectors of the European economy. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe the European Union remains committed to a trade deal with the US due to the strategic importance of the partnership, but strongly opposes Trump’s coercive negotiation tactics and is simultaneously exploring alternative global alliances to reduce its dependence on Washington.
The 90-day reprieve granted by Trump to America’s trading partners is nearing its end. By July 9, the EU must conclude a deal with the US, otherwise, as Trump has warned, tariffs on nearly all European exports will rise to 50%. Most EU goods are already subject to a 10% tariff, while cars and car parts face 25% duties, and steel and aluminum are taxed at 50%.
The European Union considers the US tariffs to be unjustified and harmful to both sides. Nevertheless, according to European Commission spokesperson Tom Regnier, the EU is working "in full coordination" with its American partners to reach an agreement.
According to Alexey Portansky, Professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, the EU still views the United States as its most important trading partner and is highly interested in reaching a trade deal. But Brussels is put off by the Trump administration’s bullying, threat-based negotiating style.
"There remains uncertainty within the EU regarding the prospects for a deal with Trump. The latest proposal from the US administration involves mutual tariffs set at 10%. But the EU would like to reduce tariffs to nearly zero," Portansky told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
At the same time, the EU is discussing alternative responses to the US tariff policy. According to a recent statement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the 27 EU member states could join forces with the 12 countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which the United Kingdom has recently joined.
"This would allow the EU and the CPTPP to take the lead in reshaping global trade and begin addressing another pressing issue - the reform of the World Trade Organization," Portansky noted.
Izvestia: NATO seeks to block Russia’s Arctic access, prompting Moscow to strengthen military presence
NATO’s objective in the Baltic Sea is to disrupt Russian maritime operations and block its access to the Arctic, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. Forty-five unmanned vessels have already been deployed to the area, while Germany has tightened controls to curb the activity of Russian oil tankers. The United Kingdom has also declared its intention to support allies in ensuring the "security of the region," the British Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. In response, Russia has concentrated significant naval and ground forces in the Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions.
"The United Kingdom remains committed to its role in ensuring security in the Baltic region through the Joint Expeditionary Force and our NATO obligations. We continue to work closely with our allies to maintain regional stability," a spokesperson for the British Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia.
NATO indeed harbors intentions to restrict Russian maritime activity in these waters, with Poland and the Baltic states likely being the main drivers of this policy, Senior Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Vladimir Olenchenko opined to Izvestia. Moreover, the alliance’s actions, including military exercises, threaten Russia’s access to both the North Atlantic and the Arctic, emphasized Professor at Saint Petersburg State University Natalia Yeremina.
"There is an increasingly visible buildup of NATO forces, including those of non-regional members such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and France, toward northern Norway and the Arctic, accompanied by Oslo’s hollow assurances of supposedly maintaining ‘low tension in the high latitudes.’ Norwegian authorities do not conceal their interest in expanding NATO’s military presence and intensifying joint exercises with allies on their territory, including in the eastern part of Norway’s Finnmark County, which borders Russia," Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolay Korchunov told Izvestia.
Against the backdrop of NATO’s actions in the Baltic Sea, Moscow is taking all necessary steps to ensure its security, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said. The Maritime Board has already prepared response proposals, which have been approved by the Russian President, Assistant to the President and Chairman of the Maritime Board Nikolay Patrushev said.
Maritime routes through the Baltic Sea are of strategic importance for Moscow. From the Leningrad Region, significant civilian shipping traffic moves through the Gulf of Finland and the Danish Straits, continuing beyond the Baltic. Reliable ferry links with Russia’s exclave, the Kaliningrad Region, are also crucial, military expert Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia.
Izvestia: Kiev seizes on Russia-Azerbaijan tensions, tries to stir the pot
Moscow sees Kiev’s efforts to destabilize Russian-Azerbaijani relations and aggravate tensions, Kremlin officials said. This follows a phone call between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Zelensky, in which the latter accused Russia of threatening Azerbaijan. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe the Zelensky call will have no real impact on the situation, which they believe will normalize in due course.
Tensions between Moscow and Baku remain elevated. On July 1, the Russian Foreign Ministry responded to accusations from Baku, which claimed that Russian law enforcement had overstepped their authority during the detention of Azerbaijani nationals in Ekaterinburg on June 27. On the same day, Azerbaijani authorities arrested eight Russian citizens for four months, charging them with drug trafficking from Iran, online sales of illegal substances, and cyber fraud. In addition, Azerbaijani authorities detained the editor-in-chief of Sputnik Azerbaijan, Igor Kartavykh, and chief editor Evgeny Belousov, arresting them on what Moscow described as absurd charges and labeling them as "FSB agents."
Amid the escalating tensions between Moscow and Baku, President Ilham Aliyev spoke by phone with Vladimir Zelensky. On his social media accounts, Zelensky claimed he had expressed Ukraine’s support for Azerbaijan in the face of alleged Russian threats.
Vladimir Zelensky sought to exploit the situation and escalate tensions between Moscow and Baku, according to Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations. However, it is unlikely that this call will have any real impact on Russian-Azerbaijani relations.
"It is doubtful that any specific agreements were reached, since Azerbaijan already supports Ukraine to the extent possible. Clearly, this was purely a symbolic gesture to once again highlight ties between Ukraine and Azerbaijan," Bezpalko told Izvestia.
Political analyst Sergey Markov also believes the situation is unlikely to escalate significantly, given the strong humanitarian ties between Moscow and Baku. He told Izvestia that Russia is home to a million-strong Azerbaijani diaspora, while thousands of Russians live in Azerbaijan and study in Russian-language schools. According to Markov, the Azerbaijani authorities also provide substantial support to the Russian Orthodox Church, which plays an important role in bilateral relations.
Vedomosti: Global LNG production set to surge 40% by 2028 as new projects come online
By 2028, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers are expected to commission new liquefaction capacities that will add some 180 mln tons per year to worldwide output, according to an annual report from the International Group of LNG Importers (GIIGNL). As a result, the combined capacity of LNG plants worldwide will expand by 37%, exceeding 672.1 mln tons per year. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe the global LNG market is entering a phase of oversupply driven by projects launched during the gas price boom, and while Russia’s cost advantage enables it to remain competitive, its market share will largely depend on the successful commissioning of the Arctic LNG 2 and Ust-Luga projects.
According to GIIGNL data, Russian LNG exports to the global market increased by 7% in 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 33.5 mln tons. Russia maintained an 8% share of the global LNG market, the same as the year before, and remains the fourth-largest LNG exporter worldwide.
Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, noted that the global LNG market is currently in a phase of expanding supply, as projects planned during the period of high global gas prices in 2021-2023 are now coming online or nearing completion.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, also pointed out that an increase in liquefaction capacity does not necessarily translate into a proportional rise in production. Some plants, particularly in the United States, may operate below full capacity, he told the newspaper.
Thanks to the low cost of gas extraction and liquefaction, Russian LNG producers will continue to compete successfully with companies from the US and Qatar, Senior Analyst at BCS World of Investments Kirill Bakhtin believes.
According to Kaufman’s calculations, Russia’s LNG exports could rise to 45-50 mln tons per year, implying a market share of around 7%, based on GIIGNL forecasts. Analyst Vyacheslav Suverov estimated that if the Arctic LNG 2 and Gazprom’s Ust-Luga plants are commissioned by 2028, Russia’s share in the global LNG market could grow to 10%. However, if only one production line at Arctic LNG 2 becomes operational, Russia’s share may decline to 5.5%.
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