MOSCOW, January 10. /TASS/. Ukraine’s all-hands-on-deck mobilization plan is seen as part of a bid to prop up US President Joe Biden’s sagging poll numbers; Washington’s shifting tone on US support for Israel’s Gaza war is mostly for show; and estimates say a potential US-China war over Taiwan could cost the global economy up to $10 trillion. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Kiev’s all-out mobilization seen exhausting gene pool to prop up sagging Biden
Kiev may succeed in recruiting up to 10 mln fresh troops for the Ukrainian armed forces if the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) passes the toughest version of the new mobilization law currently before the lawmakers, but it is very unlikely that such recruits will prove to be highly motivated soldiers, Russian Foreign Ministry official Rodion Miroshnik said. Meanwhile, the mobilization bill has been sent back for revision after some Rada members highlighted clauses that contravene the Ukrainian constitution, Izvestia writes.
Ukrainian media outlets have been actively covering the shortage of troops to replace fallen soldiers in the conflict zone. Earlier, Ukraine’s military top brass requested 500,000 new fighters for the armed forces, but the mobilization bill clearly has no support from among the civilian population. "There is a dilemma: if the law is not passed, the military will be outraged, but if it is passed, there will be a public uproar," Vladimir Oleinik, former Rada deputy and member of the Other Ukraine movement, said.
In fact, Kiev is creating a system of total mobilization that will eventually end up representing "an enormous crime against the Ukrainian people because it’s actually wiping out the gene pool, which has suddenly been transformed from the valuable core of the nation into a consumable to be chewed up by the Western war machine," Miroshnik, who is the Russian Foreign Ministry’s ambassador-at-large for the crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
Oleinik pointed out that if a large percentage of Ukraine’s already depleted population were to be sent to the combat zone, Ukraine would face imbalances in tax collection, while the already existing acute labor shortage, particularly at defense enterprises, would become an even bigger headache for Kiev.
By and large, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s attempts to find a source of warm bodies to replenish the army increasingly looks like part of a cynical plan to prop up US President Joe Biden’s sagging favorability rating, the former parliament member noted. Ahead of the US presidential election, it is crucial for Biden to demonstrate that Ukraine has at least not been defeated.
Izvestia: Washington’s shifting tone on US support for Israel’s Gaza war mostly for show
As ever more reports emerge about Israel potentially expanding the current Middle East conflict from the compact Gaza Strip to wider fronts in Lebanon and against Iran, US President Joe Biden highlighted his quiet efforts to work with the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu toward withdrawing troops, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to the region to hold talks with Arab leaders, Izvestia writes.
The US appears to be adjusting its position on Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip. At least, Biden’s recent remarks are at odds with Washington’s trademark full-throated rhetoric of continuous, unflinching support for Israeli military operations. Biden said at a meeting with South Carolina voters on January 8 that he was working with the Israeli authorities to make them significantly reduce their military presence in Gaza.
Meanwhile, top US diplomat Blinken has held talks with Israeli officials during his major foreign tour, which has largely been focused on the Middle East, the secretary of state’s fourth trip to the region in the past three months. Earlier, Blinken visited several Arab countries to seek a resolution to the Palestinian issue and prevent the conflict from expanding.
Blinken’s trip and Biden’s public remarks are most likely aimed at creating the appearance that the US is seeking peace and an end to violence in the Middle East, even while Washington played a major supporting role in sparking the violence through huge weapons supplies to Israel and its own inability to facilitate a peace process. That said, Blinken is now trying to offset the damage done, demonstrating that the US is struggling to contain Israel, CovertAction Magazine Managing Editor Jeremy Kuzmarov said.
Although US rhetoric has shifted slightly to appease public demands that Israel show more restraint, there is no evidence that the new policy tack is actually working, Saeed Khan, a professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, pointed out. In turn, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based Chatham House think tank, notes that only a viable long-term plan for governing Gaza will help avoid a long, drawn-out, smoldering conflict.
Vedomosti: Potential Taiwan war estimated to cost global economy up to $10 trillion
Any war that might break out over Taiwan, involving China and the US, would generate damages to the global economy to the tune of $10 trillion (representing fully 10% of global GDP), Vedomosti writes, citing an analysis by financial news agency Bloomberg. Such a significant dent in global productivity would come from the fact that the world remains highly dependent on Taiwan’s semiconductor production capacity, while the strait between China and Taiwan is among the world’s busiest commercial sea lanes.
Scenarios for how the tense Taiwan situation may play out and the consequences of a potential conflict are particularly relevant on the eve of Taiwan’s presidential and parliamentary elections on January 13, in which Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te, an independence supporter, remains the favorite to win the top spot.
The main risks concern the semiconductor industry, Bloomberg says. Trade between the US and China would almost completely cease in the event of war, while Washington and its allies would impose tough economic sanctions on Beijing. China’s economy would shrink by 16.7% in the first year of the conflict. However, US GDP would also contract by 6.7% because US companies still depend on Asian supply chains for electronics.
Under the scenario of a full-fledged, long-term armed conflict, leading to direct US military involvement and the severance of its economic ties with China, the price may turn out to be even higher, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), noted. Its consequences would most likely be even more serious because of the substantial role that China and East Asia in general play in the global economy, and such a conflict would be comparable to World War II, the expert said.
Neither the Chinese nor the Americans would benefit from a major war, Alexander Kubyshkin, founder of the Enfilade Capital investment and consulting company, pointed out. "A deflationary trend is on the rise in China, which threatens to spread to the global economy. A direct conflict would exacerbate first the economic situation and then the political situation in the country," the expert explained. "The US would face problems in the public debt market this year, which, in turn, may affect the banking system," Kubyshkin went on to say. Both countries are in an extremely difficult situation. However, if former US President Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025, the odds of an escalation would rise, the analyst added.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Talk swirls about OPEC+ continuing to regulate world oil trade in 2024
Last year, OPEC+ nations managed to keep oil prices at an acceptable level of above $70 per barrel. However, the cartel’s latest ministerial meeting and Angola's withdrawal from the production reduction deal have given rise to much talk about the oil cut agreement exhausting itself, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes.
The previous collapse of the OPEC+ deal, which happened in the spring of 2020, pushed oil prices as low as $20 per barrel. The cartel’s leaders - Russia and Saudi Arabia - would hardly want to see a repeat of what happened four years ago. Thus, they will try to prevent such a scenario, experts said.
According to Alexander Losev, director general of the Sputnik-Capital Management asset management company, the OPEC+ deal remains the main stabilizing factor for the market. Ongoing military and political tensions in the Middle East and expectations of monetary and credit policy easing by the US Federal Reserve may also support rising oil prices. Only a sharp slowdown in the global economy and a potential global financial or economic crisis could break the oil super-cycle of the third decade of the 21st century, the expert stressed.
Finam analyst Alexander Potavin, in turn, notes that the big oil producers that are the backbone of the deal will continue to work together because uncontrolled oil production would immediately bring down oil prices without benefiting anyone.
The analyst sees the 2024 prospects for the global economy as moderately positive. Global GDP growth is expected to be slightly lower than in 2023. That said, oil prices should not be expected to fall below $70 per barrel. However, if a recession scenario comes to pass and fuel consumption drops, an oil surplus will negatively affect prices. In order to deal with it, OPEC+ countries would probably have to slightly turn their oil spigots off once again, which is supposed to balance prices.
Media: French President Macron changes prime ministers in bid to stem popular discontent
The resignation of France’s prime minister and the appointment of a new head of the cabinet by French President Emmanuel Macron is a sign of weakening public support for the country’s authorities, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. The French leader decided to change the prime minister due to public discontent over unpopular reforms and a consequent drop in his own favorability rating.
Education Minister Gabriel Attal, an ally of Macron, has been named the new head of government. Removing Prime Minister Elisabeth Born and appointing Attal was a logical step for Macron. Born stepped down following a highly unpopular pension reform, which had brought many people to the streets in mass protests that proved difficult for the authorities to quell.
Arnaud Dubien, director of the Russian-French think tank Observo, believes that Attal’s arrival as prime minister is intended to help reduce the degree of public discontent. However, it is not a given that his appointment will impact Macron’s policies or help strengthen the president’s position, the expert pointed out.
Karine Bechet-Golovko, doctor of public law and visiting professor at Moscow State University, in turn, says that Gabriel Attal’s appointment stems from Macron’s weakening position and a decline in his approval rating. "The policy he pursues is quite unpopular," she said. "What he seeks is to change personalities without changing the policy, while giving people the hope that he listens to them and understands them," the expert noted. According to Bechet-Golovko, Attal "is a globalist like Macron himself." "In this sense, the president can fully rely on him," the expert added.
Macron’s plan is to make the new prime minister a "more political" figure, whereas Born was a purely technical premier, Dubien told Vedomosti. "His primary mission is to strengthen the positions of the president and the ruling party ahead of the European Parliament elections set for June, where they risk falling 10% behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally [party]," the expert explained.
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