Emmanuel Macron has won Sunday’s presidential runoff in France, according to the preliminary results. Meanwhile, analysts interviewed by Izvestia point out that a new French cabinet will depend on June‘s parliamentary election. Experts doubt that Macron’s party will be able to repeat the success of 2017 and the president will have to bargain on a coalition cabinet.
Macron’s victory means that France’s foreign policy is not going to change much from what it was over the past five years. The main priority will be to ensure the European Union’s strategic autonomy and turn it into a key center of the global system. It’s also possible that Macron will reconsider his approach to relations with Russia.
"For the past five years, he has been trying to build dialogue with Russia in quite a consistent manner, being one of the few Western leaders who received the Russian president twice," Senior Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations Andrey Kudryavtsev noted. "Macron was guided by the understanding that a European security system can only be established together with Russia, but no significant breakthroughs were achieved on that track. Given the developments in Ukraine, the situation has changed and a decision seems to have been made to reduce relations with Moscow," the expert added.
According to the analyst, the related policy will largely depend on how the situation in Ukraine unfolds, as well as on what positions people in the president’s close circle and other European leaders take.
The makeup of the next French cabinet will depend on the outcome of the parliamentary election set to take place in June 2022. "The parliamentary election will be kind of a third round (of the presidential vote)," Leading Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Europe Sergey Fedorov explained. "It will make it clear whether Macron will be able to maintain the current parliamentary majority after winning the presidential election. If he fails, he will have to form some coalition," the expert stressed.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev remains active on both military and diplomatic tracks
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky intended to discuss weapons supplies at his Sunday meeting with Washington’s top diplomat and the Pentagon chief. At the same time, he expressed readiness to search for a diplomatic solution to Ukraine’s standoff with Russia. But in fact, Kiev seeks to prolong military activities, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Program Director at the Valdai Discussion Club Oleg Barabanov pointed out that the Ukrainian leadership had taken the departure of Russian troops from Kiev’s suburbs as its own success. In addition, issues related to military support for Ukraine have reached a turning point as heavy weapons supplies are being openly announced. "It seems that the Ukrainian authorities are determined to prolong the armed conflict as they believe that the longer it lasts the higher Kiev’s odds for military success are. Especially since Zelensky reiterated plans to pull out of negotiations if a referendum took place in the country’s southern regions seized by Russia," Barabanov emphasized.
The expert did not rule out that pragmatically, establishing a ground corridor to Crimea might become one of the main military goals for Russia. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces that remain holed up at the Azovstal steel complex are distracting Russian troops, preventing them from taking action in other directions. The longer the situation remains like this, the more it will benefit Ukraine, though it’s clear that the militants blocked off at Azovstal are doomed.
Washington’s position is not straightforward either. Given the upcoming November election, the US may be more interested in ending military activities as soon as possible rather than in prolonging them. However, according to Barabanov, the election issue is not as acute as that of US President Joe Biden’s rating. Clearly, maintaining the conflict at a stage that makes it possible to say that a weaker Ukraine is successfully resisting Russia remains an important goal for the United States and it will be promoted, the analyst noted.
Kommersant: Ankara inches up pressure on Russia
Turkey has closed its airspace to Russian military and civilian aircraft headed to Syria. According to experts interviewed by Kommersant, it won’t create serious problems in terms of Russia’s military operation in Syria but will make it possible for Ankara to show that it has made concessions to the West and, at the same time, avoid any falling out with Russia.
Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semenov noted that "Turkey does not want the conflict in Ukraine to go on as part of a conflict between Moscow and the West." "The longer Russia’s special operation lasts, the tougher Western pressure will become on those countries who maintain contact with Russia and are interested in cooperation with Moscow," he explained.
The analyst points out that these countries, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will make every possible effort to ensure that the measures they will have to take against Russia do not harm their relations with Moscow much but are sensational enough to satisfy the West. "Turkey’s move to close its airspace to Russian planes bound for Syria is one of such steps. It won’t become much of a problem for our forces stationed in Syria because warplanes use a corridor above Iran and Iraq and most cargoes are delivered by sea. The air corridor above Turkey was largely used for delegations visiting Syria and the deployment of troops. Nothing catastrophic will happen if these flights take a bit more time," the expert noted.
He emphasized, however, that the decision made by Turkey might be followed by other steps, which would prove to be more painful for Russia, particularly as far as Syria was concerned. "That said, the airspace closure may be viewed as a signal to Moscow," the analyst concluded.
Media: Russian gas gets exempted from sanctions
Energy sanctions are hurting Europe more than Russia, European politicians admit. The fact is already swaying the decisions of the European Commission, who has announced that it’s possible to pay for Russian gas based on the model proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the threat of a total Russian energy boycott still exists, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
The European Commission said that EU companies would be able to open accounts in a Russian bank to deposit foreign currency, convert it into Russian rubles and make payments. This statement is completely different from what was said a week ago. Media outlets reported in mid-April, citing the European Commission’s unpublished report, that the payment model proposed by Moscow would violate sanctions.
Still, it’s hard to argue that Europe has in any way changed its plan to abandon Russian energy. The fact that the European Commission no longer views the new payment model as a violation of sanctions does not mean that all companies from European countries will now move to payments in rubles. The EU countries that are almost independent from Russian energy supplies will continue to advocate for tougher sanctions on Russian energy companies, economist Andrey Loboda said.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes, citing Director of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov, that though Europe cannot currently abandon Russian gas, it does not mean that it won’t be done in the near future. Europe won’t survive without Russian energy supplies at this point but Moscow, in turn, is not yet able to redirect exports to Asia-Pacific countries. The moment of truth will come in May when payments for April gas supplies will begin to be made, but the process may also be delayed, the expert emphasized.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Sanctions crusade may drive Russia to abandon climate agreements
The West’s drive to reduce their dependence on Russian energy supplies have made the European Union forget its climate agenda, as evidenced by a rise in coal purchases and heating oil consumption. As for Russia, it has not officially withdrawn from any climate agreements despite the sanctions, though Moscow has authorized the production of higher emission cars, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
The leading role in setting the rules in terms of the climate agenda has shifted from the EU to Asia-Pacific countries, Partner at the Group for Operational Risks and Sustainable Development at KPMG Vladimir Lukin pointed out. Given Russia’s economic reorientation, it is crucial for the country to remain in the Paris Climate Agreement and actively promote national decarbonization initiatives, the expert stressed.
According to Director of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov, Russia should have joined the Paris Agreement only after the lifting of all the technology sanctions, but now, the agreement has become completely meaningless. China, the largest emitter of CO2, is unlikely to introduce a transborder carbon tax anytime soon. Beijing’s participation in the Paris deal is just aimed at attracting Western investors, so Russia should consider abandoning obligations that aren’t beneficial in any way and only hinder economic development, the expert noted.
According to him, while Beijing will try to capitalize on the current situation as much as possible since China is becoming the main importer of Russian energy, it’s possible for the two countries to find common ground. It would be reasonable to depart from the climate agenda and address environmental issues, which are really crucial for China, Simonov said.
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