NEW DELHI, April 29. /TASS/. The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to leave OPEC could be good news for India, as it could ultimately lead to greater access to oil supplies and potentially lower prices, according to Indian experts.
"The exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC is likely to increase global oil supply flexibility in the medium term <…> which could soften crude prices. It is likely to be beneficial for India’s import bill and inflation in that sense," said Sourav Mitra, Grant Thornton Bharat’s Partner on Oil and Gas, who was quoted as saying by Financial Express.
The shift also opens up new avenues for bilateral energy engagement, according to Yogesh Jambhale, Senior Research Manager at Rubix Data Sciences. "The potential exit <…> would signal a shift toward more flexible, bilateral energy engagement, enabling India to negotiate long-term supply agreements without being constrained by OPEC production quotas," he told the publication.
India’s dependence on oil supplies from the UAE has increased in recent years, with imports rising from about $11 bln in FY2022 to nearly $14 bln in FY2026, while the UAE’s share in India’s total oil imports increased from 10.3% to 11.4% over the same period.
"The UAE’s potential exit from OPEC could be positive for India, given its steady annual fuel demand growth at around 2%," said Prashant Vashisht, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head at ICRA.
Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. The country assured though that it shares the desire to stabilize the global fuel market. Its oil production policy will take into account global supply and demand, according to the WAM publication.