MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. Oil prices may remain in the $80-90 per barrel range over the next two to three weeks and then begin to gradually decline if the United States and Iran manage to agree on halting active hostilities, Research and Development Director at the Institute for Energy and Finance Alexey Belogoryev told TASS.
"In my view, prices will stay within the $80-90 range for another two to three weeks. This is due to the unclear and uncertain terms of the truce, which does not appear fully coordinated, so the market will treat it with caution. Second, restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take time, as insurance companies will need to significantly lower premiums. I think this will take one to two weeks," he said.
The expert noted that if hostilities do not resume and no new problems arise with shipping through the strait, prices may approach $70 per barrel in May-June. "I believe that if the geopolitical factor ceases to play a decisive role, then by fall, that is, in the fourth quarter, prices will trend toward $60 per barrel. There are more optimistic estimates, but in my view, the overall downward trend in prices has not been reversed despite this unprecedented crisis. Prices will not fall immediately, but this price bubble will gradually deflate. I think this will take two to three months in total," he added.
Belogoryev did not rule out an alternative scenario in which the Iranian crisis ends without a real peace agreement. In that case, the threat of renewed conflict would continue to hang over the Gulf, which would create a significant geopolitical premium that could keep oil prices above $70 until the end of the year, he said.
At the same time, Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko told TASS that the company has already revised its annual forecast. In its strategy for the Q2 of 2026, Finam raised its forecast for the average Brent price this year to $65-70 per barrel, with the possibility of further upward revision if the conflict drags on. According to Dudchenko, recent developments have significantly increased the likelihood of such a revision.
He also described the overall situation in the oil and petroleum products market as critical: commodity markets will remain highly volatile, and the likelihood of returning to a normal, familiar state has significantly decreased.
On April 7, US President Donald Trump announced a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran. The decision was made in light of a proposal by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and is "subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz", the US leader said. Sharif invited Iranian and US delegations to talks in Islamabad on April 10 to reach a final agreement. According to CNN, the US delegation will include Vice President J.D. Vance, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.